Quote from fenn68 on November 10, 2022, 2:40 am

In an Acee interview discussing player extensions:

1. Did not expect any discussions with Soto this winter … primarily Boras wants to see a “rebound” season from Soto along with the fact that testing FA is always Boras’ go to strategy. However, would not rule it totally out next winter. Acee also suggested that Preller was OK giving Soto time to fully get comfortable with the Padres organization and living in SD.

2. No real insight on Machado (re: opt out next winter) but Machado is building a house in Coronado (per Acee) … so by inference Machado likes being here and may go the Arenado route and not opt out or a reworked contract is possible.

2. Expect Snell to go FA after 2023 (Boras agent). As one of the slowest workers in MLB … he may have a real issue with the new pitch clock and being a 5 inning pitcher does not seem to fit the Melvin mode. Follow that through, if they sign a FA SP this winter May want an arm that will be a factor post-Snell.

3. Expect extension talks with Darvish … even at this age a multi year deal is possible. On the other hand, maybe not Hader (per Acee) as the price tag should be too high for a closer in the Padres’ view.

No guarantees but if Preller feels Machado is staying, Darvish extends, Martinez returns as a SP … that does a lot to shape his FA strategy. Then layer in his view on Groome / Morejon as a SP at some point in 2023 (or 2024) plus the chance of Profar returning in LF … if he is “optimistic” on all that could see a “limited” FA pursuit early.

Also, if Adams / Alfaro are non-tendered and Martinez / Profar re-sign at “reasonable” dollars … Padres still should be under the first CBT threshold seeking a 9th regular hitter and a SP.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 10, 2022, 6:02 am

If I can get him for under 10M per year, then one of the hitters I'd jump on immediately is Jose Abreu.  Sure he'll be 36 next year but he just had a year where he hit over 300, had an 824 OPS, struck out only 16% of the time, had an exit velocity of 92.2 and a hard hit rate of 51%.  This tells me he still has some power in his bat (as does his 40 doubles) even though his BABIP was very high at 350.  Given these numbers are on the downside of a great career but probably more reliable and will be just as good or better without the shift against him.  I understand he's not the greatest fielder but can play still 1b just like Voit or Bell did - would be an excellent DH (i.e., Baseball Reference has him with a projected 162 game dWar of -1.1 just like Hosmer!).  Can slide Cronenworth over to 1b late in the game as defensive replacement when Abreu starts in the field.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 10, 2022, 6:17 am

I agree with most of what Acee says in the above post, although that has not always been the case.  All the points made are logical steps to take and hopefully will have the correct result.  Regarding Darvish, if he has learned to take care of his body, I think he performs at the current level for at least the next 2 years - he would be a very good extension if he wants to stay in San Diego.

Regarding Machado, I think he wants to see the direction the team is headed during this season and beyond.  As long as he gets a slight bump in his contract that will have him earn the same as his contemporaries then he'll respect that and stay with the team.  Given the uncertainty of Machado and whether Soto can adapt to playing in San Diego/NL West, I agree the strategy is to let the year play out and then see where we are next year.  It may be that Soto's demands are so high, we just cash him in for lower cost players/top prospects - lot of flexibility at present.

Snell is an enigma.  Depending on how successful they are with landing some starting pitching for this year and beyond, could see a Snell trade sooner rather than later.  With Preller, virtually anyone is available including Cronenworth and Kim.

Lastly, Hader will probably be too expensive beyond this year.  May get a qualifying offer next year but if one of our relief pitchers emerge as a potential closer or we can trade for another lower priced closer, Hader may be gone at the trading deadline for a decent package of prospects given he could walk after the season.

Quote from fenn68 on November 10, 2022, 6:38 am

Most likely (in my mind) if the Padres are in contention … Hader stays and get a QO after the season (he will decline) … if the Padres are out of contention he gets traded.

Don’t see him around in 2024.

On the same timeline …  if Pomeranz is back and effective … might see him dealt at the deadline (or before to make payroll room) but not likely a QO or back in 2024.

Need Castillo to develop and maybe support from a few of Morejon - Groome - Cosgrove as LHRP to backfill … Hill will be back to support in 2024.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 10, 2022, 6:54 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 12:34 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2022, 10:55 am

Of course as wild card option could still land Cronenworth at 1B for defense by the Padres signing a good middle INF to handle 2B who is a plus defensive option with a decent bat at a low cost since 2B are not generally high in the pecking order of FA. (no idea who though). Tatis to LF.

I can see merit to the idea of signing/trading for more of a defensive middle of the road bat for 2B, especially if he can be had for the $4-6M range, and sliding Crone to 1B.

Looking at the FA, and with the TEX connection, Rougned Odor could be an option. LHH with a little bit of power. Villar is a SH option, with position flexibility. Ceasar Hernandez LHH, could be an option.

And I am still intrigued by a trade for Berti (should not be a lot in prospects) especially with his speed, stole 41 bases last season to lead ML, and he offers some position flexibility as well.

 

With the new rules base stealing will be back.

We need to take advantage of this so we aren't being "taken advantage of" with this.

We will have Tatis who can run...Kim and Grisham(depending on how many games he plays) are marginal base stealers.

I would LOVE a guy leading off not named Fernando who gets on base at a .340+ clip who can steal 40+ bases.

Berti had a higher OBP in 19' and 20' but has not been that great the last two years...can he get back to .340+?

Maybe...if not...who else we got?

Or should get?

I'd give my right leg (it hurts all the time anyway) for Steven Kwan!

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 10, 2022, 7:30 am

Hard to see MIA deal Berti for less than a quality return.

The positive is in 2022 he had a 2.3 WAR (41 SB) playing just over 100 games. Then add that he has 3 years of control and in ARB should only cost $2.4MM.

The negative is that he played 2022 at age 32 … the most ML time in his career (by a lot). 2022 was his career year (by a lot). His career wRC+ is below average.

Who is the real Berti and given his calling card is speed … what will aging do to eroding that in the next three years?

Tough evaluation on both sides given his age and limited plus production time.

What would you think MIA would demand for Berti?

_______________

Zero chance on Kwan … Padres have nothing to offer to CLEVE.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 10, 2022, 7:45 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 10, 2022, 7:30 am

Hard to see MIA deal Berti for less than a quality return.

The positive is in 2022 he had a 2.3 WAR (41 SB) playing just over 100 games. Then add that he has 3 years of control and in ARB should only cost $2.4MM.

The negative is that he played 2022 at age 32 … the most ML time in his career (by a lot). 2022 was his career year (by a lot). His career wRC+ is below average.

Who is the real Berti and given his calling card is speed … what will aging do to eroding that in the next three years?

Tough evaluation on both sides given his age and limited plus production time.

What would you think MIA would demand for Berti?

_______________

Zero chance on Kwan … Padres have nothing to offer to CLEVE.

Oh I wasn't saying we could get Kwan...just that I wish we had a guy just like him at leadoff ahead of Tatis/Soto/Machado....he'd score 120 runs.

On Berti his OBP in 19' and 20' was even better than last season....he just didn't play that many games or his WAR would have been better.

I think he's still a .250/.340/.350 player in our lineup playing every day with 40+ steals and 100+ runs

 

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 10, 2022, 7:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 10, 2022, 7:30 am

What would you think MIA would demand for Berti?

I used that trade simulator we spoke of earlier, and I used Berti for SS Yendry Rojas and RHP Matt Waldron, and it page thought it favored SD a little bit, but the trade might happen. When I added Rosario as well, it calculated it as a fair trade.

So do we here think that Rosario, Rojas, and Waldron for Berti is too much??

Or Rojas, Waldron and a different MiL for Berti?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 10, 2022, 8:13 am

Tatis at 2B is something I mentioned before..simply because Kim stays at SS..and Crone has experience at 1B.. Tatis has some history at 2B but not at the MLB level..but still less of a learning curve and Pads maximize ++++ range (without the shift) from 1B/2B...

I dont know if the SB aspect is as much of a deal as we think.. we have some peeps that can steal 20 and some (one) that can steal 50 if he wants.. SLG was an issue in 2022..sure Soto and Tatis full seasons will help but if we can add an Abreu or fallback to a less expensive Joc that will go a long way..