Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 8, 2022, 2:31 pm

https://twitter.com/tay13gup/status/1590084799460696064?t=qxQbWzUnU1aZiSCDVIeikw&s=19

Could we be headed towards $300mil payroll???

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 2:41 pm

Here are the three numbers to keep in mind with deGrom. 34, 92, and 64.

The first is his age, 34! The last two are the amount of innings he has pitched the last two seasons. 92 and 64. He is getting older and progressing the wrong way!

Why on Earth would you sink $45.3M per season in a pitcher that is breaking down more often than not?

Invest the $45M± in Soto, who is just barely 24 years old.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 3:01 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 2:41 pm

Here are the three numbers to keep in mind with deGrom. 34, 92, and 64.

The first is his age, 34! The last two are the amount of innings he has pitched the last two seasons. 92 and 64. He is getting older and progressing the wrong way!

Why on Earth would you sink $45.3M per season in a pitcher that is breaking down more often than not?

Invest the $45M± in Soto, who is just barely 24 years old.

Agree that would be an awesomely bad signing when they have so much in the way of every day needs on the 26 man roster. Without availability the so no ability.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 7:28 am

Reading some blurbs on MLBTR last night, and they were talking about the FA of Willson Contreras, and how CHC are sure to put a QO on him, which would result in a signing team losing draft picks. Not that I was really in the favor of pursuing him anyway. However, at the very end of the blurb, they did mention that BOS had contact and interest in Austin Nola.

Not sure if this leads to anything, or if it was simply due diligence on BOS part. But still have to wonder if Preller is looking to upgrade the C position.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 8:04 am

Tried some payroll math now that we know that Suarez and Profar have opted out. Still need to see what Martinez does. In order to see what we have left for Christmas gifts.

SD has 9 players on AAV contracts, Machado, Tatis, Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Pomeranz, Kim, Martinez, and Garcia. They total $131.16M.

SD has 10 players that are arb eligible, Soto, Hader, Crone, Grisham, Nola, Hill, Castillo, Morejon, Alfaro, and Adams. Lets say they part ways with Alfaro and Adams. The arb numbers based on MLBTR estimates comes to $47.7M.

SD has "dead" money in Hosmer, and the $1M each buyouts of Profar, Suarez, and Myers. That totals $15.28M. Then Spotrac lists other monies that goes towards the CBT for prearb guys, MiL salaries, and benefit dollars. That totals $20.42M

I have SD around $214.56M for 2023. I believe that SD IF they go over the CBT threshold again this season, they are 3rd time offenders, meaning that every dollar after $233M is penalized at %50. Plus, after exceeding $20M over the CBT, the next $20M also has an additional surcharge of %12. Meaning if SD goes to $273M this offseason, only $17.6M of that $40M will be available for salaries, the other $22.4M will be eaten by penalties.

So all that being said, IF SD pushes that $273M mark, SD will have after obligations and penalties, about $36M for FA roster improvement.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 8:15 am

IF we have $36M, we need to fill either 1B or LF, and maybe a DH, 4 bench spots, 2 SPs, and 2 RPs. Or 2 SPs, 1 RP, and one spot start/bull pen swing man.

Figure that we have Campusano and Azocar for two of the bench spots, and their salaries are already accounted for in the MiL dollars. You would think that we could fill the RP and 6th SP/swing man from guys on the 40 man roster, so their dollars would already be accounted for as well.

So 1B/LF, DH maybe, 2 SPs, and 2 bench upgrades for $36M.

Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2022, 8:38 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 7:28 am

Reading some blurbs on MLBTR last night, and they were talking about the FA of Willson Contreras, and how CHC are sure to put a QO on him, which would result in a signing team losing draft picks. Not that I was really in the favor of pursuing him anyway. However, at the very end of the blurb, they did mention that BOS had contact and interest in Austin Nola.

Not sure if this leads to anything, or if it was simply due diligence on BOS part. But still have to wonder if Preller is looking to upgrade the C position.

I guess the have to survey any potential catching options ... and apparently low cost options as it seems they are going to be a little conservative on general spending except maybe the pursuit of Bogaerts. Apparently not really trying to resign Martinez. Not sure if any of that is due to the owner trying to see Premier League Liverpool and just cash flow issues.

Just hard to see moving Nola and seeking a new catcher (who will cost more) as a priority with every other need. If anything BOST asking about Nola (no idea the potential offer) supports Nola value on the market and add to a reason for Preller NOT to move him as the low cost / long control option.

Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2022, 8:58 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 9, 2022, 8:15 am

IF we have $36M, we need to fill either 1B or LF, and maybe a DH, 4 bench spots, 2 SPs, and 2 RPs. Or 2 SPs, 1 RP, and one spot start/bull pen swing man.

Figure that we have Campusano and Azocar for two of the bench spots, and their salaries are already accounted for in the MiL dollars. You would think that we could fill the RP and 6th SP/swing man from guys on the 40 man roster, so their dollars would already be accounted for as well.

So 1B/LF, DH maybe, 2 SPs, and 2 bench upgrades for $36M.

Sort of how I see it ... may use the DH as a "rotational" position so not looking for a specific DH and maybe only one 1B type. So the other two bats needs an OF and sort of flexible on the 3rd bat as an OF or INF ... someone who may DH but can hit the field to cover a starter as DH (or injured). Adding players with more position flexibility takes some of the pressure off over spending on the other bench pieces. Basically if they add 3 bats with defensive flexibility they can really cover a lack of depth on the bench / minors (and go with league minimum types). Also expect a strong wave of minor league AAA signings with invites to ST trying to find quality bench piece(s) at low cost.

I see the RP emerging from the minors with league minimum types. SP is my focus to spend on quality ... no internal depth to cover 2 slots ... so maybe $25MM on 2 SP and maybe $10MM on three bats (I know not ideal but  betting on Soto - Machado - Tatis - et al providing enough offense with more impact than going with Groome - Morejon as SP).

Need to leave a little on the table for mid-season tinkering. If they non-tender both Alfaro and Adams (likely) ... should add another $4-5MM in available money.

Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2022, 9:07 am

What might alter my logic are the murmurs that the Padres and Martinez may be working on a new deal ... and that will take money off the table since can't see a re-sign of Martinez to be significantly below a mid-range SP on the FA market.

If that comes together ... have to think Martinez gets a SP slot (to start the season) ... still need another SP but does buy some time to see how good Martinez is as a SP while giving Groome / Morejon some more time to develop as SP.

If Martinez is signed on an incentive based deal (less than SP base) does allow them a bit to go higher on the other SP add.

Should know more on Martinez tomorrow.