Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 8:32 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2022, 7:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 4:46 am

Think in the MLBTR piece they suggest the Padres would like Tatis back at SS (Kim to 2B - Cronenworth to 1B) ... no idea on their source (or if the source is just throwing ideas out there).

However if true ... might reflect their view of a stronger OF market for FA vs 1B or at least FA they like. Might also reflect wanting more flexible line-up to cover 162 games and not be hampered by a single position hitter occupying a roster slot.

Yeah, not sure where they got this tidbit, and listening to the national broadcast of the NYM/SD series, they were toting the Padres intention of placing Tatis in the OF, and more specifically CF. Maybe that was to be for the stretch run, since Grishams bat was so ugly last season.

However, if you pivot to their suggestion, with an INF of Machado, Tatis, Kim, and Crone at 1B, defensively this is a high level INF. Offensively, Machado and Tatis bats are inline for the top of their position. Kim's production would be just outside the top for 2B, OPS wise. Crones bat is the one that doesnt fit at 1B for me, since I am more of a traditionalist when it comes to 1B, I want the big slugger run producer. But looking at his RBI numbers, Crone would still be top 10 in RBIs for 1B last season. Just light on HRs compared to the top 10 1B. But then Bell didnt do a lot at 1B while in SD, and Crone would be exponentially better defensively at 1B. Plus, Tatis at SS keeps him happy, so maybe this is the best line up option.

I guess we have to look at the overall best infield offensively and defensively and not just the individuals. Also consider the shift going away and maybe need to maximize range on the right side.

Machado - Tatis - Kim - Cronenworth ... looking at all factors ... should be better than Machado - Kim - Croenworth - TBD (Tatis in the OF). All will be in the line-up so the offense contribution does not change.

The real issue is who they add as the next bat (LF or 1B) and considering the offense/defensive contributions of each which is better for the team. Tatis' versatility allows the Padres to go for the best add regardless of position.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 8:41 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 7:44 am

I can see AJP attaching a spec to Pomz and giving himself +$10/$11 mil to play with.. or keeping Pomz going over to +$50 then showcasing him in ST and trading him at that point ..if healthy should draw considerable interest..a gamble for sure but either way spec + Pomz or Pomz for stuff..option

 

 

I do think they have to take Pomeranz (and his $10MM for 2023) to ST to prove he is healthy before any team will touch him (unless the prospect was Merrill).

Among the worries on Pomeranz is his career injury history and in 2022 he was "expected" to return mid-season ... then late in the season ... then not at all since he was still have issues. That is a lot to ignore on a $10MM player.

Hope he is fully recovered and throwing well so they can unload him either in ST or early in the season. The pessimist in me worries that he still has pain during the winter workout and the have to do another surgery knocking him out for months.

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 8:48 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 7:57 am

Keith Laws top 50 FA lost

Suggests Profar opt out and sees a contract in the $15-$18mil per... what the fuck? Name me a .730 OPS guy who got anywhere close to that.. BTW if Profar opts out..let him go ..LF is very upgradable at the plate and Tatis/Grish/Soto is an elite OF

Profar may SEE a $15-18MM contract per ... just not his.

Probably more in the $10MM +/- range but guaranteed for 2-3 years (beyond the length of his current deal).

Part AAV ... part guaranteed length ... make the decision.

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 9:12 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2022, 7:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 4:37 am

I will stick with my working thesis of $40MM to deploy ($20MM under CBT and $20MM over 1st threshold to the edge of the 2nd. IF the Padres want to get some impact pieces that money will not go far. Just as an example:

$22MM for Rodon for the SP add (basically what the top SP got last season)

$13MM for Benintendi (or Bell) for the bat (basically what Canha got last year)

That is $35MM with more upgrades needed and need to have some room for mid-season adds. Puts them in the position of either going with the internal candidates for the other slots or lowering quality and cost for SP #1, Bat #1.

I think I am with you as far as the dollars that SD has to deploy in the offseason. I am not sure that I would chase Rodon for $22M. That seams like a lot for what SD "needs" in a 4th starter. Not saying that Rodon is a 4th starter by any means, just do we need someone of that caliber behind Darvish, Musgrove, and Snell? Maybe we are better off looking at the mid tier guys like Quintana, Wacha, or others. And I still think that Davies makes perfect sense for #5 SP.

Then IF we deploy Tatis at SS, slide Kim and Crone right, then we keep Grisham in CF, we really only need a LFer at that time. Is Benintendi at $13-15M better than a platoon of Pederson/Myers for about the same money combined??

So could we get Quintana, Davies, Pederson, Myers, and Cruz for $35M, still leaving some room for trade deadline moves??

Adding a Rodon is a 2023 luxury but he a top of the rotation guy giving greater insurance of having three upper rotation arms if Darvish, Snell, or Musgrove go down. Plus Rodon on a multi-year deal would be around in 2024 as Darvish and Snell go FA with, at this point, no idea if they can be resigned or if the Padres want to resign someone like Snell.

Making the playoffs is about wins in a 162 game schedule ... and in 2022 the Padres just made it. So the internal debate has to be does having Rodon set them up for more wins than the alternatives added for his money? Already have money to add an impact bat ... so offense may be fine. Is one "elite" SP and one "fringe" SP (Groome, Davies) set up more wins than two "middle of the road" SP (Clevinger / Manaea types)? Of course no idea if Rodon wants to sign with the Padres.

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Need to see some MLBTR estimates on the projected contracts for the FA ... not always right but close enough to be in the range for AAV.

As of now sort of winging it ... especially on the Japanese players.

Would guess that Preller has a better idea already of the ask ranges on most ... and already has his evaluation of "max" on his targets. So would not be surprised if we see a target that Preller basically ignores out of the gate "knowing" his demands are well beyond Preller's evaluation. A lot of strategic gaming here and there is a need go aggressive early on some and have fall back options if the first targets sign elsewhere.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2022, 10:43 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 7:41 am

Assuming $40 mil

SP Senga 5/75

DH/COF Yoshida 5/65

 

 

I think you are putting way too much faith and money towards Japanese players. Most dont seem to work out, and if they do, not usually the first year. And 2023 is the year we need them to perform the best. Senga might be a good bet, but odds are that both Senga and Yoshida wont pan out.

Spend $13M on Benintendi, MLB proven.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 1:42 pm

There's been some scuttlebutt that teams have tried trading for Campusano without success.

I would guess they let Alfaro go this winter and Campusano gets some real run in 2023.

Not much left to prove in the minors at this point

This was mentioned on Padres MLBTRADERUMORS chat... so apperantely teams have asked for Canpy and Padres have said NO... guess AJP and his team are higher on Campy than any of us thought..

Quote from WindsorUK on November 2, 2022, 3:53 pm

I REALLY want to see a player we drafted/signed as an amateur, prove himself as a big leaguer.

Campusano CAN contribute! Let's just hope AJ sees it.

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2022, 6:50 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 1:42 pm

There's been some scuttlebutt that teams have tried trading for Campusano without success.

I would guess they let Alfaro go this winter and Campusano gets some real run in 2023.

Not much left to prove in the minors at this point

This was mentioned on Padres MLBTRADERUMORS chat... so apperantely teams have asked for Canpy and Padres have said NO... guess AJP and his team are higher on Campy than any of us thought..

Maybe just higher on Campy than an expensive Alfaro with one year of control and no other options in hand.

Maybe the offer was just lowball.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2022, 7:28 pm

https://twitter.com/TooMuchMortons_/status/1587980242441732096?t=-BaOdi2cecWlq7e3e1eEcg&s=19

We seemed to struggle a bit vs 95+ mph Fastballs this season.. here is a list of some names we've been discussing and how they do vs high heat... Soto/Manny and Tatis just find..some others struggle..BUT when looking at FA targets or trade targets.. here are some names to keep in mind