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2023 offseason

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Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2023, 10:03 pm

In the scenario of all the cards falling in the Padres’ favor with the top 3 healthy and Wacha, Martinez, Lugo, Hamels, Teheran, Morejon, and Groome all lights out in ST … what do the Padres do?

Morejon and Groome to AAA likely but what happens if Hamels and Teheran “earn” the 26 man while Lugo and Martinez have not “lost” their chance. Knowing at some point early in the year Hamels and Teheran will opt out since other teams NEED pitching.

Would that create a move to the pen for someone and trades out of the pen? Can’t trade the FA signs until Jun 15 as I recall. Probably have wiggle room with Teheran but IF Hamels really looks back in form as a SP and the Padres don’t want to lose him … a challenge to add his $2MM vs the tax threshold baring a trade of someone with an equivalent (or greater salary).

Garcia / Pomeranz have the salary to cover out of the pen … Snell out of the SP. Anyone else out of the pen is not doing it (not trading Hader and can’t trade Suarez … yet).

A chance the Preller has a real challenge / opportunity for deals at the end of ST … maybe a RP for an upgraded 13th position player or a decent near term prospect to help in 2024.

If we have such a problem.. could AJP swing a deal for a soon to be ready C (Pirates already have their best prospect ahead of him) like &Henry Davis #57 overall C... for depth/bridge to Salas or even to replace Nola or Campy in 2024....

Pirates weakness is P.. so Morejon + Weathers + Snelling all lefties 2 MLB ready one top 100 incoming dream on prospect..?? Both Morejon and Weathers could make the starting 5 for the Pirates right now in my humble opinion..

They have Endy Rodriguez with the higher Ceiling and likely to be ready sometime soon (late 23 early 24) even though he is one level behind Davis .. so trading Davis who as a C is listed behind Rodriguez in top 10 C lists for prospects.. even though Davis is rated higher as a Prospect... from a Padres timeline Davis makes more sense..more floor vs Rodriguez.. not sure however if Potates make him available

 

Not saying specifically this would be AJPs target or even position target just saying we may see someone like Morejon moved if other GMs want or believe in his upside as a SP..

HELL for all we know AJP swings a Burnes deal between now and opening day

There was zero chance Manny was going to opt in and play the next 5 years at $30 mil.

This isn't news in other words....obviously with the way he's played and with the other contracts signed recently he was either getting extended or going to free agency no matter what.

Now it just depends when we make a new offer....before the season....during the season....or after.

The advantage of waiting until the end of 23' is to be sure he doesn't get hurt or production fall off(unlikely).

The disadvantage is once you get there everyone is talking to his agent....not just the Padres.

I still see very little chance he isn't extended before the season and even less chance he ever leaves.

They wouldn't have given Xander a contract if they thought Manny was leaving.

Now you could say they signed Xander "in case" Manny was leaving but that $$ could/would have gone to Manny so it makes little since to sign Bogaerts if you don't have the $ to also sign Machado IMO.

 

Machado just started the bidding war for sure so the question is just what the pain threshold ($$$) will be for Peter. Seidler .

I’m hoping they both can come to a fair agreement for both sides…Manny could end up with a statue at petco and the HOF with a padres hat

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 17, 2023, 2:02 pm

Machado just started the bidding war for sure so the question is just what the pain threshold ($$$) will be for Peter. Seidler .

I’m hoping they both can come to a fair agreement for both sides…Manny could end up with a statue at petco and the HOF with a padres hat

On its own, an extension is not going to cause much angst with Seidler given the AAV will not go up that much to impact the tax … and with a world of unknowns not sure years 6 +++ is a factor.

More likely with Machado in the fold … we start to see some of the higher paid pieces start to depart and get replaced by lower cost options: Hader; Garcia; Snell; Pomeranz out after 2023 plus hard to tell the option moves by Martinez, Lugo, and maybe Wacha. Then after 2024 Soto will be the big issue along with Kim.

Bottom line is that Seidler needs to keep the payroll in the penalties phase (but not necessarily higher) through 2023-24 then … if successful with the prospects, especially pitching … can drop under for 2025.

 

Vibe in ST is at a different level this season, the boys are having lots of fun while putting in the work

If this is really the case then color Machado gone after this year...now it makes sense why they didn't trade Kim and signed Boegarts...one of them will be playing 3rd base in 2024

Who really knows but reported the Padres offered an extension of 5 yrs/ 105 million on top of his 5 yr/150 left...supposedly Machado wants 5 yrs/250 million added to his remaining 5 yr/150 after 2023.

That is a really big gap to overcome

Padres, Manny Machado Were Reportedly $145MM Apart In Extension Talks - MLB Trade Rumors

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 19, 2023, 10:06 am

If this is really the case then color Machado gone after this year...now it makes sense why they didn't trade Kim and signed Boegarts...one of them will be playing 3rd base in 2024

Padres, Manny Machado Were Reportedly $145MM Apart In Extension Talks - MLB Trade Rumors

Already retracted #fakenews

The spin machine is in high gear...who does it help to report that the Padres offered 5 yrs. / 105 million dollars and who put it out there?

Machado's camp to make the Padres look cheap.

Then you have the reported then denied that Machado wants 5 yrs. / 250 million dollars... who put that out there?

The Padres camp to make Machado look greedy then disputed by the Machado camp.

This hurts both sides when negotiations are leaked and now Machado will be asked this question every day and in every city the Padres play in this year and Machado will be pressing...as that would be human nature.

Rich people problems (Billionaires vs Millionaires) and then add in the fact that Bally Sports, which has the television contract for the Padres, has or is in the process of declaring bankruptcy which could put televised games for this entire season at risk and that would really suck. Ticket prices are through the roof...$140 dollars for upper deck seats on opening day and ticket prices will continue to rise in both the primary and secondary markets. The cost of having a contender and not having televised games would certainly damper fan excitement.

If it becomes apparent that the Padres are NOT going to be able to extend Machado's contract, then do they trade him at the deadline and try to get something for him or just stand pat?

If Machado does in fact opt out of his contract...can San Diego give him a qualifying offer and get whatever draft picks go along with that from whoever gives him a 50 million dollar a year deal through age 41-42?

Depending on what happens with Machado, do the Padres go all in on Soto given the talent they gave up for him or do they save resources and just out distance everybody else for Shohei Ohtani.

This season on the field should be fun to watch but the business side of it is going to be ugly.

We know AJP going to be leading the way for this OFer in 2024 dont we??

I feel like the Machado reports are much ado about nothing. The team starts low while the player starts high. Deadlines come and go. Eventually they'll get serious and have real negotiations. The exact same thing happened with Musgrove before they figured out his extension.

 

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