Quote from BoosterSD on February 9, 2023, 12:50 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 9, 2023, 12:22 pm

then figure out what it takes to extend Soto for 10 years at 450 million…the Padres would have Darvish,Snell,Musgrove Tatis, Boegarts, Soto and Manny together for a long time. It also allows the top prospects to really develop so they don’t have to rebuild…just reload

Go Padres!!!

Not even getting into the money side, with Soto's age I think he will want 12-15 years. My guess is still 15 years at $600M, $40M per season. That would take him to age 41 I believe.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 9, 2023, 12:55 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 9, 2023, 12:50 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 9, 2023, 12:22 pm

then figure out what it takes to extend Soto for 10 years at 450 million…the Padres would have Darvish,Snell,Musgrove Tatis, Boegarts, Soto and Manny together for a long time. It also allows the top prospects to really develop so they don’t have to rebuild…just reload

Go Padres!!!

Not even getting into the money side, with Soto's age I think he will want 12-15 years. My guess is still 15 years at $600M, $40M per season. That would take him to age 41 I believe.

Based on what Judge got 15/$600 might be the cost to keep Soto ($40mil AAV)... He turned down 15/450 from Nats.. so split the difference 15/$525 as a base negotiating # and see if he bites saves us $5per AAV if he says yes .. Could always meet him at $600 or somewhere in between if he says no..

BTW I think Siedler has an idea of what his new TV deal is going to look like as well as Petco naming rights .. so he aint no dumb man... 40k at Petco x 81.. huge road game crowds ..TV/Merchandise/Sponsorships/Suites/Advertisement space/naming rights all in could be a windfall of money north of $750mil+  per season before expenses...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 9, 2023, 1:05 pm

Innings: Most since 2013

ERA: Best in full season since 2016

ERA+: Best in full season since 2016

FIP: Best in full season since 2016

WHIP: Best EVER

BB/9: Best EVER in full season

H/9: Best EVER

HR/9: Best in full season since 2013

 

Yu in 2022

Concerns 2789.1 career IP.. age 36.. otherwise LFGXD!

Quote from Randy Manese on February 9, 2023, 1:47 pm

Aaron Nola would look really nice at the top of that 2024 pitching rotation!  I hope Austin is talking the Padres up even though he might not be on the team next year.

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2023, 1:56 pm

Keeping in mind that it takes both sides to agree to get an extension or a FA signing … don’t really know the reasons moves are not made plus doubt Preller / Seidler are going to offer a deal THEY feel is not right for the success of the team now and in the long run. They do have alternatives to pursue in every situation.

The move on Darvish not only address a major need starting in 2024 but does so with a player they have confidence in to be productive and be a positive member of the team.

With that thinking … have to think they will push hard for Machado’s extension … obviously good player and a guy that does everything to be on the field. Also clear they don’t worry about a player at 41 performing if that fits the player’s character … so an 11 year deal fits. Still want to minimize the AAV hit (especially in the near term) but I expect Machado will not settle for just adding another 5 years at $150MM which will move the AAV up. If they could agree on $374MM/11 years (tear up 2023) that would be a $34MM AAV … plus $4MM offset by Darvish lower by $4MM.

Quote from Notmyopic on February 9, 2023, 2:12 pm

I don’t wanna worry about Soto right now, IMO Manny has to be the priority and Soto has some proving to do after last year.

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2023, 2:32 pm

Once Machado is locked down … the offense should be solid for 2024 … 2025 (even with potentially Kim and Soto gone). 2025 should see Merrill up for Kim (unless extended).

Priority in the near term should be on SP for 2024. 2023 for the incumbents will determine the plan. On one hand Snell / Martinez will have to deliver SP quality … they will cost if good but at this point we don’t really know. Snell especially given his age … if good big money / long contract … but based on his past as a 5 inning, half season quality type pitcher … not betting on his future (even if Seidler likes him … they liked Profar and that did not help Profar).

Then need to sort through Morejon, Groome, et al to see if they can leverage in a low cost SP (or two) … and then ease the pressure on signing someone or just allow them to go big on an upper rotation arm.

Then there is the FA field … expensive with no guarantee they will be signed. Nola, the kid from Japan who is being posted, Ohtani, Urias, others. Will make for an interesting winter post 2023. How will the Padres rank the options given desirability, probability of signing, and projected contract then if they want to be sure they get one … how quickly to they move from #1 priority to another if the negotiations drag.

Ohtani will be 29 … so expect at least a 12 year deal at what most assume a $50MM AAV. Then factor in Ohtani’s unique personality that has his own priorities beyond just money. Might be a tough sign in SD … or easy.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 9, 2023, 2:35 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on February 9, 2023, 1:47 pm

Aaron Nola would look really nice at the top of that 2024 pitching rotation!  I hope Austin is talking the Padres up even though he might not be on the team next year.

From a lefty righty perspective and Mexican fan base Julio Urias would be my FA target (if we missed out on Othani)..

One of in order

1. OTHANI. (+ DH)

2. URIAS

3. NOLA

4. SNELL

Also decending $$ cost

is how I would prioritize ONE top SP signing in 2024

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2023, 2:37 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on February 9, 2023, 2:12 pm

I don’t wanna worry about Soto right now, IMO Manny has to be the priority and Soto has some proving to do after last year.

Agree … and if as I suspect they sign Machado then focus on a big money SP next winter … Soto (and Boras) may be gone to the FA market after 2024 without the Padres chasing him to what will be a 15 year deal pushing $40MM AAV.