Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2022, 10:36 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2022, 10:05 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2022, 9:57 am

It's amazing to think that ONE controlled SP beyond 2023 add.. would ease a lot of concerns for the future..while addressing a present need...

Still think the Padres will get extensions done with Darvish and Snell … keep the family happy before adding to it. New winter FA market will be interesting depending on how the Padres want to deploy the money from all their own FA (and the Machado opt out).

I see an extension for Manny in the works.. which leads me to the next ?.. say we extend Machado at his current AAV but for 10yrs/300.. making him easily the highest paid 3B in the game.. through age 41..

With Xander 11yrs.. and Nando long term .. I dont see how they can resign Soto (I know we've shared our thoughts on having all 4 here long term BUT in reality 3 of the 4 is doable .. 4 for 4 would require almost "perfection" in trades/development of youth.. likely a few hiccups will happen..its baseball after all... with all that said... What's the best move? Is it extending Soto and trading Fernando? Or Trading Soto and keeping Fernando?.. lets say Tatis has a Tatis like season and stays relatively healthy 130/142... Would we be better moving on without Tatis BUT with the Haul of all hauls.. think Volpe + Dominguez + Schultz + Wells + Cabrera and Pereira ..from NYY.. 2 or more who could be move for a controllable arm like Rogers/Luzardo Marlins or a Reynolds type bat...are we a better TEAM with Fernando in CF longterm or say Dominguez in CF/ Luzardo in the rotation along with Schultz and Pereira/ Cabrera filling in and alongating the bench.. (figured Volpe + Wells are moved in the Luzardo or Rogers deal).. Is the return too lite for a decade + of Tatis at what now looks like a bargain price?.. would moving Soto instead (getting back 60% of what we gave up for 1 yr (2024) of Soto?... questions to be asked for sure.. a WS in 2023 would make any of these moves more expected.. Can we keep the Fearsome 4 sone together for 10yrs..? While resetting the tax 2 or 3 times along the way and staying atop the NLWest standings?... How soon (realistically) can we have Salas at C/Merrill at SS/2B /Zavala in C others in the picture..at pre-arb $$ to facilitate or maintain the 4... this is going to be some kind of fun problem/solution to deal with over the next couple yrs... for sure!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2022, 10:47 am

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 10:14 am

I know I probably am playing a broken record here but Padres need Ohtani now. And how on earth are the Angels prepared to lose Ohtani without compensation and without ever going to the postseason since signing him? Do they even finish better than last place in that division this year? What a colossal misread/mismanagement of the club it has been since signing him. Especially with a sale of the team looming, they should deal him now. What is a full season worth? Padres have to be constantly in the ears of Minasian getting a deal done and then using the rest of the off-season to get the extensions done. Only one year remaining, him being the dual threat of pitcher and hitter is the only reason they should be able to get the return of someone with multiple years control.

See my post above.. unless Seidler goes all Mets owner next level crazy and Pads have a $350+ million payroll going foward ..at least thru 2025 when they can sub some young arms for would be older one adds/extended.. and maybe get ot below $300. I don't see how we can add Othani without trading 1 or 2 of Fernando/Soto and/or letting Manny walk.. not happening now..BUT I could see a 3 month rental of Othani ..possibly even leading to a WS championship at the deadline..IF (and LAA look pretty decent atm) Angels fall of contention...still the return of 3 months of Othani would not be more than 1 top 100 spec and 1 top 150ish plus some lower 40-45 spec/s..as the alternate choice for LAA is to hold on to him and just get a 2nd and 5th rd pick via the QO..

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2022, 11:08 am

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 10:14 am

I know I probably am playing a broken record here but Padres need Ohtani now.

There is no way that this could happen.

One, Ohtani is making $30M this season, that would add almost $55M in payroll to SD with our tax level penalties,

Two, SD flat out does not have the prospects to get Ohtani. Let alone outbid the other players that would chase Ohtani IF he were to become available. Hell, we can not out bid the LAD in prospects, let alone the NYY, or about 8 other teams that have better systems than SD now.

Ohtani is a pipedream that will never happen, trade or FA signing. There is no way LAD or NYY, NYM will get outbid for Ohtani's services, in prospects or dollars.

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 11:33 am

I find these next 12 months to be fascinating. So many decisions to be made or they have already been made. How crucial is Fernando’s 2023 to this team’s future? Was the decision to acquiring Soto a decision of Soto over Ohtani? Soto over Machado? Xander over Machado? Manny, Fernando, Soto, Xander all together for 10+ years? Where does Crone sit in all of this after it appears and has been reported that Preller has zero interest in trading him?

After giving it more thought I think Preller is figuring out what it is going to take to resign Soto and Machado. I still believe he will make a serious run at Ohtani this year. But the next major move is going to set up dominos (Grisham/Kim/prospects on the move/extensions). I think this is why things have been so quiet  even though we all know AJ is working hard in the background.

 

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 11:35 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2022, 11:08 am

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 10:14 am

I know I probably am playing a broken record here but Padres need Ohtani now.

There is no way that this could happen.

One, Ohtani is making $30M this season, that would add almost $55M in payroll to SD with our tax level penalties,

Two, SD flat out does not have the prospects to get Ohtani. Let alone outbid the other players that would chase Ohtani IF he were to become available. Hell, we can not out bid the LAD in prospects, let alone the NYY, or about 8 other teams that have better systems than SD now.

Ohtani is a pipedream that will never happen, trade or FA signing. There is no way LAD or NYY, NYM will get outbid for Ohtani's services, in prospects or dollars.

Pipe dream for sure. I forgot he is making $30 mil this season. Geezus all the more puzzling on the Angels part. Pipe dream for money only not being outbid. But getting him for half the season would be +15 mil plus penalties. Return could be altered based on money coming out way

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2022, 11:37 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2022, 11:08 am

Quote from dusty on December 31, 2022, 10:14 am

I know I probably am playing a broken record here but Padres need Ohtani now.

There is no way that this could happen.

One, Ohtani is making $30M this season, that would add almost $55M in payroll to SD with our tax level penalties,

Two, SD flat out does not have the prospects to get Ohtani. Let alone outbid the other players that would chase Ohtani IF he were to become available. Hell, we can not out bid the LAD in prospects, let alone the NYY, or about 8 other teams that have better systems than SD now.

Ohtani is a pipedream that will never happen, trade or FA signing. There is no way LAD or NYY, NYM will get outbid for Ohtani's services, in prospects or dollars.

Teams value their specs a lot.. no way for example that NYY part with 6 yrs of control of Volpe/Dominguez/Pereira or Wells for 1 yr of Othani... and never mind 3 months rental .. LAD ain't parting with their Stud SP spec or Stud C spec..although I could see them using Will Smith ..But they would have to add Lux and more Now and I can't see LAD doing that right now..Maybe outbid in FA sure.. but not fall from 2nd to 3rdbor 4th in the West for 2023.. as far as the Deadline 3 month rental.. everyone can enter those sweepstakes cause the prospect capital for a 3 month rental (yes even Othani) can be put together rather nicely by all teams in baseball..NYY could offer Schultz + Cabrera + a low Spec to close a Deadline deal (deal just needs to be a bit better than a 2nd rd pick and 5th rider LAA would receive) and no team is parting with their top 3 specs/maybe even their top 5 for 3 months of Othani..(think more like Machado trade to LAD a few seasons ago..or Max Sherzer deal to LAD although that one included 1yr of Turner as well so prob not a good example.. From a Padres perspective Rosario + Henry Williams + Efrain Contreras type deal would be hard to beat that's a 50 spec a 45 spec and a 40 for 3 months ....would I include Mazur instead of Williams or Zavala instead of Rosario.. 💯  hell no.. If it was 1 1/2 yrs of control no problem ..I might even go Merrill.. but for 3 months nobody is going to "overpay" prospect wise ..except AJP.. which will make Othani ours if he sees him as the difference maker.. as far as $$ goes.. Siedler did not get outbid for Manny or Xander.. or Turner or Abreu ..we offered more $$ to all ..the last 2 just chose to go elsewhere... so not sure any one can/would outbid us for anyone with Siedler as our owner...

Quote from Randy Manese on December 31, 2022, 11:52 am

The possible opt out and/or re-signing of Machado seems to rest on a combination of factors.  One, does Manny want to get paid on an annual basis at the same rate as his peers at 3b (Arenado at 35M and Rendon at 38M (what a bad contract that turned out to be!)) or two, will he be willing to take a lower rate (same 30M but possibly lower at the end of the multi-year extension) to keep the AAV down for the team moving forward.  Note that even at 30M, his AAV will still be higher than that of Bogaerts and Tatis over the course of their contracts 11/14 year contracts.

What I think will happen is that Machado will take a slight bump up in AAV, say 4M (since he actually is getting 34M in 2023) until the original 10 year contract ends in2028 and then have it go back down to 30M for the 5 year extension after that to 2033  This would increase the team AAV by only 2M over the course of the new contract (32M in AAV per year), which in baseball terms is peanuts.   I think this makes the statement that Manny wants to make and keeps him as the team leader for the rest of his career in a place that he and his family obviously like (building a new home in Coronado).

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2022, 11:53 am

Expect Othani to sign with the LAD next winter … a perpetual contender … does not require a major lifestyle shift to another city … and most importantly can (and will) out bid everyone given the currently very low payroll projected for 2024 where Othani can be signed and LAD still remain under the CBT level. The marketing / PR for LAD will justify the contract.

LAD are currently just under the CBT first level at $232.9MM. FA in the offseason are Kershaw, Syndergaard, Martinez, and Mille plus Bauer is no longer on the books … that lowers the base payroll by $66MM. That is more than enough to sign Othani and also extend Urias and still be under the CBT level. Even if the push into level one, not a big penalty compared to what the NYM, NYY, or SD would have to pay in penalties. LAD can push the envelope.

Othani does not seem inclined to sign with a team that is not always in contention (and at the highest level) … plus of those team doubt the can out bid LAD, NYY, NYM.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2022, 12:00 pm

Would not write off NYM … given it is Cohen and already leading everyone in payroll … they will drop salary in 2024 via FA and potentially declining a couple of club options … down $77MM+ … again more than enough to pay Othani and still have a lower payroll than 2023.