Quote from lafnboy13 on December 24, 2022, 7:57 am

From Dennis Lin, The Athletic

Tatis’ position security, trade market possibilities, Ethan Salas update: Padres mailbag

By Dennis Lin

Dec 20, 2022

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The Padres agreed to sign Seth Lugo on Monday, adding a versatile veteran arm to a pitching staff that still could use reinforcement. Lugo will be given the opportunity to start, but there’s a decent chance he settles in as a reliever — his primary role over the last several seasons — or more of a swingman type. Like Nick Martinez’s three-year, $26 million contract, Lugo’s new two-year, $15 million deal includes the ability to opt out after the 2023 season and performance incentives for both starting and relieving.

One way or another, Lugo could end up providing plenty of value. In the meantime, the Padres appear to be in the market for another pitcher and at least one position player. (Also Monday, the Padres made a move for needed catching depth, agreeing to a split contract with free agent Pedro Severino. Severino, who served an 80-game PED suspension in 2022, will make $1.95 million if he’s in the majors next season, according to FanSided.)

While we wait on more potential moves, let’s take some mailbag questions.

Note: Questions have been edited for clarity.

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Seems like these past few weeks of quiet for A.J. Preller and Co. is the calm before another storm. Otherwise, I feel like Preller would’ve been more active in the free-agent market picking up complementary pieces. We know his pursuit of superstars is relentless. Is it possible he is planning to address multiple positions of need through the trade market instead of dipping back into free agency? — Patrick S.

This question was posed before Lugo opted to join the Padres, but it remains relevant. Eleven days passed between Xander Bogaerts agreeing to a deal and Lugo’s signing. In that span, a number of free agents who could have helped the Padres agreed to seemingly affordable deals with other teams. The Padres expressed notable interest in at least a couple of those players, including new Twins signees Christian Vázquez (three years, $30 million) and Joey Gallo (one year, $11 million).

One potential reason for the relative inactivity: According to industry sources, the Padres have given some indication they are not planning to spend much more on their Opening Day payroll — currently estimated at $241 million, with a projected luxury-tax figure of $261 million. (Lugo’s contract will cost them about $12 million next year, including resulting luxury-tax penalties.) Then again, everyone knows not to rule anything out with owner Peter Seidler, who has overseen the sport’s most aggressive hike in payroll. Although they do not like the term, the Padres clearly are “all-in” for 2023. Another somewhat splashy acquisition seems possible, though it may have to come through a different avenue.

Preller is, as always, exploring the trade market, which offers a more diverse set of options than free agency. The Padres don’t have many top-tier prospects left to offer, but they do have a creative general manager and, given their wealth of positionally versatile shortstops, some flexibility with their major-league roster. People familiar with the team’s thinking have consistently listed center fielder Trent Grisham as one trade candidate. (Fernando Tatis Jr. could play center if San Diego trades Grisham, assuming the club also acquires an outfielder.) Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, meanwhile, is believed to be attainable — Kim would be less valuable as a second baseman, his projected assignment at the moment — though the Padres much prefer to keep him.

Trades, of course, generally are more difficult to pull off than free-agent signings. But given the relative dearth of options left on the free-agent market, the Padres might feel compelled to address at least one of their remaining needs via trade.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

Is Tatis on the trade block behind the scenes? — David C.

He is not. His value is near an all-time low because no one knows exactly how he will look coming off suspension and major surgeries. And, anyway, the Padres would have virtually zero leverage if they were to pursue a deal — Tatis has a full no-trade clause through 2028. (He has partial no-trade protection from 2029-34. If he remains a Padre through 2028, he would gain 10-and-5 rights, effectively extending his ability to veto any trade.)

The Padres, for their part, are eager for Tatis to regain his value in their uniform — and to supply the power and athleticism they desperately need. Understandably, the team does not want to admit defeat so quickly on a 14-year, $340 million extension that was signed less than two years ago. Despite the unfortunate events of 2022, that contract doesn’t look so bad next to the megadeals that will take Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Trea Turner into their 40s.

Tatis will turn 24 on Jan. 2. There is plenty of time for him to redeem himself, including in the Padres’ eyes.

If Tatis is moved to the outfield, what would be the rationale not to have him and his arm in right field? Soto could move to left field. — Bryant F.

He could, and the Padres seem to prefer such an arrangement. Despite his status as a Gold Glove Award finalist, Soto was last among major-league right fielders in Outs Above Average last season. He was comfortably above average in 2021, so there’s hope he can resurface that performance, but Tatis — if healthy — likely represents the better defensive option in right.

Two months out from spring training, the Padres don’t have to make firm decisions yet. They also discussed alignments that would keep Soto in right while putting Tatis in left. Some Padres people believe Tatis’ preference is center, though he has told officials he is up for anything that will help the team.

Bob Melvin is a big Chris Bassitt guy, and Bassitt would have seemed to fit nicely into the largest need for the Padres. They reportedly were “finalists” in the discussions. What kept them from inking the deal? Was it financial terms or something else? — Jeff J.

Melvin is indeed a big Bassitt guy, but I’m not sure the Padres came close to offering Bassitt the $21 million average annual value he received from the Blue Jays. And because Bassitt declined a qualifying offer from the Mets, he also would have cost the Padres their third- and sixth-highest remaining draft picks (after they forfeited their second- and fifth-highest picks to sign Xander Bogaerts). That, along with the requisite years and money, is a considerable cost for a mid-rotation/back-end starter.

What are realistic internal rotation options for 2023 and beyond? Is the team willing to spend big on a free-agent pitcher? Do they have interest in bringing back Yu Darvish and Blake Snell after 2023? — Cody W.

The depth options after Martinez and Lugo are Adrian Morejon, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr and minor-league signee Julio Teheran. It would be a surprise if the Padres willingly lean on any of them for many innings next year.

We alluded to this earlier, but I haven’t gotten the sense the Padres are looking to spend significantly on one of the remaining free-agent starters. The biggest one left is Nathan Eovaldi and he would also cost draft picks. (It’s never really been Preller’s style to dole out large sums for free-agent starting pitching. The main exception, James Shields’ four-year, $75 million contract, was almost eight years ago.)

The Padres have made it known for a while that they would like to extend the 36-year-old Darvish. The potential cost might have risen substantially after 39-year-old Justin Verlander scored a two-year, $86.7 million deal with the Mets. I would expect the Padres’ interest in an extension to continue, though. Snell is scheduled to reach free agency before his 31st birthday, and his agent, Scott Boras, just got fellow hard-throwing lefty Carlos Rodón $162 million.

Really, the current market reinforces the fact that the Padres did well in extending Joe Musgrove for five years and $100 million. As they are aware, they need to trade for controllable starting pitching at some point.

Rank these four possibilities in order of likelihood:
1. Padres extend Soto before he hits free agency
2. Padres trade Grisham
3. Padres extend/rework Manny Machado’s contract to avoid his opt-out
4. Padres finish the season over $250 million in luxury tax-assessed payroll
5. Jackson Merrill plays at least one MLB game for the Padres
— Chris P.

My opinion: 4, 2, 3, 5, 1. Their luxury-tax number is already well above $250 million. Grisham might be the likeliest player to be traded. Whether or not Machado opts out, the Padres would seem to have a good shot at keeping him if they offer more years at an AAV comparable to his current $30 million. The Padres are very high on Merrill, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll be dealt. And although Boras has become a frequent business partner, the Padres are under no illusion that the agent would entertain any discount on Soto, who could end up setting a new standard in free agency.

Where did the Padres finish on Kodai Senga? Was there ever true desire? — Danny B.

I don’t know how close the Padres were on Senga, but I did hear early on the interest wasn’t huge. Part of that might have been due to durability concerns, as Senga has a notable injury history. Some teams obviously weren’t sold on how his command and breaking pitch would translate as a major-league starter. The Padres, still in need of starting pitching, wouldn’t have minded adding Senga. But, for them, missing out on him wasn’t like missing out on Turner or José Abreu.

What can you tell us about Ethan Salas? — Lukas F.

He’s considered one of the best teenage catching prospects in recent memory. It’s long been expected that the Padres would land him, and ESPN Deportes reported that the team has verbally agreed to sign him for $5.6 million — almost all of San Diego’s international bonus pool — when the upcoming international signing period opens on Jan. 15. If Salas delivers on his potential as both a potent switch-hitter and a rare defender, such an investment would turn out to be quite the boon.

Let’s all remember he’s only 16, too. The expectations being heaped on the top player in this international class probably aren’t fair, and catching development is particularly tricky. The Padres, at least, are on the verge of adding a coveted prospect to their system.

Lost in all of the debate about signing Bogaerts is the message it sends to Tatis — there is no chance now that he can argue he should be the shortstop going forward. With Kim, despite his stellar defense, Fernando could argue he agreed to the extension to be the shortstop and Kim is not an elite star. But he can’t argue that with Bogaerts. Why hasn’t that been acknowledged as an important factor in why A.J. went after Turner and Bogaerts? — Mike B.

The Bogaerts deal can be characterized as partly insurance — for the possibility that Tatis doesn’t return as the player he was — and partly an acknowledgment that Tatis will have to earn back his status as a franchise cornerstone. In addition to being a very good player, Bogaerts arrives with instant credibility as a leader.

His signing doesn’t mean that Tatis will never again start at shortstop for the Padres, though. Bogaerts projects as the kind of player who should move off the position sometime in the next few years, and he has communicated a willingness to play second base or third. (First base could be another possibility later in his career.) Right now, some evaluators deem him San Diego’s third-best defensive shortstop, behind Kim and Tatis. There is value, however, in making Bogaerts comfortable as he adjusts to a new city and organization, and he was above average in the field last season.

The Padres are already paying Eric Hosmer; do they bring him back as a bench piece? It would save some money for them to extend one of their stars. — Thomas G.

Hosmer isn’t coming back. In the year or so leading up to his August trade, the front office made it clear, through its actions, that it no longer wanted him on the team. You could say there’s a mutual lack of interest in a reunion.

Do you think Weathers is salvageable? Seems like the team brought him up too early and he did well in the beginning until he started getting shellacked. Might that have done irreversible damage to his psyche? He looked like such a promising prospect when he first came up. — Jason H.

His best path to being a big-league contributor might now be as a reliever. (In late August, he was shifted to the Triple-A El Paso bullpen in preparation for a potential call-up that never came.) Scouts say his stuff has backed up some, though the metrics all along suggested it wasn’t as good as his impressive introduction to the majors might have suggested. Until Weathers comes up with better secondary pitches, starting at the highest level figures to be a challenge.

I don’t think Weathers has suffered an irreparable hit to his confidence — he naturally has plenty of moxie — but pitching in the Pacific Coast League likely hasn’t helped. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for both him and the Padres, and the Royals were among the teams scouting Weathers this past summer. Wherever he is next season, he shouldn’t be unsalvageable. He’s still only 23, and lefties who can sit in the mid-90s aren’t abundant.