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2023 offseason

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Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2022, 2:35 am

Putting the current roster in perspective …

Offense now vs most of 2022:

IN: (full seasons) Bogaerts; Soto; Tatis >

OUT: Hosmer; Myers: Voit; Profar

TBD: 9th hitter

Major upgrade already

============

SP is still TBD but

OUT: Clevinger (4.33); Gore (4.50); Manaea (4.96) … not a high bar

IN: Martinez as a SP where he had a low-mid 4 ERA in 2022 as #4

TBD: #5/#6 with a threshold of a 4-5 ERA

=============

Padres made the playoffs with the “OUT” but the offense is already better and the pitching only needs a decent fit for the back end to make the overall team stronger.

So, tinkering on the fringe for now should be sufficient for this roster.

Don't forget the subtle upgrades at AAA in Teheran >Scott and others.. and Tucker =>Mazara.. amongst others..

But yeah as is Offense > 2022

Pitching (Martinez ERA as SP was 4.30 or > than all mentioned above)

BP is > if anything because of a + yr of development and a full season of Hader ..not to mention the cherry on top if healthy in POMZ

+ I don't think AJP is anywhere near done... I see 2 bats coming ...one + one bench.. and at least 1 SP

In our Division LAD is <.. SF is <.. Col is neutral and AZ is > than in 2022.. so by us getting > and everyone regressing alone we should be > than 2022

In the NL as a whole atm ATL is neutral +Sean - SS... NYM about =.. and Philly >... Brewers < and Cardinals < .. the rest all are not yet contenders..

Still out there fits for 2023

DH - Voit/Cruz/Brantley/JD Martinez

COF- Peralta/Comforto/Anderson/

IF/1B - Drury

SP --Kubler/Lugo/Eovaldi/Wacha/Davies

Others...

Still a few very useful pieces out there.. for us..

 

* with the dollars throwing contest going on wonder if Washington made a mistake non tendering ($8.2 proj) Voit... I'd take him back .. Great chemistry guy.. fun, competitive dude and that MOSS...  1/$6.5 with a $500k buyout or $7 mil player option for 2024

Wouldn't mind Miguel Sano 1B/3B on a minor league deal with a 1/6 like Teheran if he makes it to San Diego..

Just for the MEME

Hosmer to LAD

Turner to SDP

Not sure we are giving enough hype to the bullpen which could be the key to a very successful season

Closers: Hader (L) … the best in the past 5 or so years; Suarez (R) signed the big contract after a dominant second half following injury in his first ML season;

Set-up: (both former closers) … Pomeranz (L) and Garcia (R)

Seventh inning: Hill (L) … outstanding 2nd half last year; Wilson (R) displayed very strong stats in rookie season

Long: Morejon (L) … if not starting; Crismatt (R) very effective in 2022 in this role

Then a pretty deep set of AAA call-up options. Hard for any team to match that group.

Important (but not critical) is Pomeranz’ health with Castillo, Lopez, Cosgrove asa LHRP in the wings.

Well balanced LH/RH for all roles, depth to use 8th/9th inning options earlier in critical situations, depth to avoid over using any one arm over the 162 game schedule, depth to cover an injury. This really sets up as a great bullpen.

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lafnboy13
Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2022, 4:57 am

Not sure we are giving enough hype to the bullpen which could be the key to a very successful season

Closers: Hader (L) … the best in the past 5 or so years; Suarez (R) signed the big contract after a dominant second half following injury in his first ML season;

Set-up: (both former closers) … Pomeranz (L) and Garcia (R)

Seventh inning: Hill (L) … outstanding 2nd half last year; Wilson (R) displayed very strong stats in rookie season

Long: Morejon (L) … if not starting; Crismatt (R) very effective in 2022 in this role

Then a pretty deep set of AAA call-up options. Hard for any team to match that group.

Important (but not critical) is Pomeranz’ health with Castillo, Lopez, Cosgrove asa LHRP in the wings.

Well balanced LH/RH for all roles, depth to use 8th/9th inning options earlier in critical situations, depth to avoid over using any one arm over the 162 game schedule, depth to cover an injury. This really sets up as a great bullpen.

Yes it does..? Is Baez viewed as a SP or BP arm going into 2023.. ? Also Felipe and our own Lugo look really solid for BP depth etc..not to mention Wethers/Avila/Groome/Khner who should all log in MLB innings SP/RP in 2023..

From The Athletic:

A way-too-early Padres roster projection: Who will be the starting pitching, outfield solutions?

<img src="data:;base64," alt="" aria-hidden="true" data-airgap-id="81" />
By Dennis Lin

Dec 14, 2022

Less than two months after vying for the National League pennant in front of raucous crowds, the Padres and Phillies have been two of this offseason’s most emboldened spenders. San Diego has dropped $352 million on three free agents. Philadelphia has forked over $387 million to its own trio. Both rosters can be described as top-heavy. Both owners and both general managers continue to be lauded for an overt desire to win.

But there is at least one key difference between the teams, despite similar approaches. The Phillies, who agreed to a four-year, $72 million deal with Taijuan Walker, appear to have a full rotation and two of baseball’s best pitching prospects in Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. The Padres still have Yu DarvishBlake Snell and Joe Musgrove but a host of questions beyond that, including whether Nick Martinez will prove himself a viable starter.

The Padres are seeking at least one more bat, but until they acquire an arm or three, they will remain most obviously short on starting pitching. By now, no one should underestimate Peter Seidler’s and A.J. Preller’s aggressive resourcefulness, but the Padres have limited trade assets and the free-agent market has thinned out.

A mid-December roster projection is subject to significant change, of course. It also highlights San Diego’s greatest need.


Starting pitchers

Best bet for Opening Day: Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Nick Martinez, Adrian Morejon

Other 40-man options: Pedro AvilaJay GroomeReiss KnehrRyan Weathers

Including the 2022 postseason, the 36-year-old Darvish is coming off the heaviest workload of his major-league career. So is Musgrove, after finishing an out shy of 200 combined innings. Snell has had his last two seasons either cut short or delayed because of groin injuries.

The Padres, who looked at acquiring a top-end starter in the summer, could provide protection by reemploying a six-man rotation, but they no longer have the depth to do so. Some evaluators still prefer Martinez as a reliever. Adrian Morejon has never reached 70 innings in a professional season; projecting 100 or more from him in 2023 feels like wishful thinking. The other starting candidates on the 40-man roster are even less proven.

Remaining free agents include Johnny Cueto, Nathan Eovaldi, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Drew Rucinski, Drew Smyly and Noah Syndergaard. In other words, there isn’t a lot left on the open market.

Some team officials were higher on new Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt than they were on new Mets pitcher Kodai Senga, so perhaps the Padres would consider giving up more draft picks for someone like Eovaldi, another qualifying-offer free agent. (Seidler is close with Carlos Rodón’s agent, Scott Boras, but the Padres don’t seem to be in the market for what could be a fourth contract of at least $200 million.) With Darvish, Snell, Manny Machado and Josh Hader all nearing potential free agency, San Diego needs to add multiple starters — whether imminently or closer to the trade deadline.

Relief pitchers

Best bet for Opening Day: Josh Hader, Robert SuarezLuis GarcíaDrew PomeranzTim HillSteven WilsonNabil Crismatt, Jose Lopez

Other 40-man options: Michel BaezJosé CastilloTom Cosgrove, Angel Felipe, Ray KerrSean Poppen

When the Padres signed Drew Pomeranz to a four-year, $34 million contract after the 2019 season, there was some thinking that they could trade the lefty before the deal turned sour. Things, of course, did not go according to plan.

Now, Pomeranz is the biggest X-factor in a relatively deep bullpen. After not pitching in the majors at all in 2022, he will be 20 months removed from flexor tendon surgery on Opening Day. If he reemerges as his former shutdown (when healthy) self, San Diego should have an abundance of back-end arms. If not, Rule 5 draftee and fellow left-hander Jose Lopez might have a better chance of sticking on the roster.

Despite a knee surgery that required a two-month recovery, the Padres are less worried about Suarez’s chances of staying on the mound. Suarez, who will be 32 in March, opted out and re-signed with the San Diego to the tune of five years and $46 million in guarantees. The aggressive commitment reminded some observers of the Padres’ ill-fated pact with Pomeranz. It also was a reflection of a bonkers pitching market and Suarez’s ability to eventually succeed Hader as the team’s primary closer.

Catchers

Best bet for Opening Day: Austin NolaLuis Campusano

Other 40-man options: Brett Sullivan

The Padres were hopeful they could sign Christian Vázquez before the veteran agreed to a three-year, $30 million deal with Minnesota. Vázquez would have helped ease Xander Bogaerts’ transition to San Diego — the two are former Red Sox teammates and close friends — while representing an overall upgrade over incumbent catching options. Had the Padres landed Vázquez, they could have carried three catchers for a time, sought to trade Nola and/or optioned Campusano to the minors. (Campusano has drawn limited trade interest over the last couple of years.)

As things stand, the Padres still could use catching help. Nola is beloved in the clubhouse, but he may be better suited for a secondary role, especially with more stolen-base attempts expected in 2023. Campusano is a talented hitter, but he remains raw when it comes to the finer parts of the major-league catching game. The coaching and pitching staffs likely would be reluctant to entrust him with the bulk of the catching workload in an all-in year for San Diego. Sullivan, the other catcher on the 40-man roster, has never played in the majors.

None of the remaining free-agent options (Tucker Barnhart, Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez) would inspire great confidence. But the Padres need more depth at the position; if Nola or Campusano get injured, the team would be perilously thin behind the plate.

Infielders

Best bet for Opening Day: Jake CronenworthHa-Seong KimXander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Matthew BattenEguy Rosario

Other 40-man options: Brandon Dixon

Unless the Padres acquire another everyday position player, they seem unlikely to trade either Cronenworth or Kim. The current plan is to roll out a vaunted four-shortstop infield of, from right to left, Cronenworth, Kim, Bogaerts and Machado. Given upcoming shift restrictions, it could be the best defensive infield in baseball. And while Cronenworth doesn’t possess ideal power for a corner bat, his range — he’s considered at least a 70-grade first baseman — should make up for some of that.

The Padres could further stomach an imperfect infield fit if they add a first- or second-base option with some pop, allowing the team to sit Kim against certain right-handers. (While Cronenworth had fairly even splits last season, Kim posted a .681 OPS versus righties.) Unsigned veterans include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Drury, Trey Mancini and Dominic Smith.

With Bogaerts’ signing, a potential re-signing of Drury feels unlikely. Drury is seeking an everyday role, and his market appears decent.

Outfielders

Best bet for Opening Day: Juan SotoTrent GrishamJosé Azocar, Dixon, David Dahl*

Other 40-man options: Batten, Fernando Tatis Jr. (not eligible to be reinstated until April 20)

The Padres’ second-biggest need, after starting pitching, is outfield help. There are only a few legitimate outfielders on the 40-man roster. There are more if you include the suspended Tatis, but he will miss at least the first 20 games of next season and there is no guarantee he will come back from multiple surgeries as his dynamic self. So, the Padres are searching for another outfielder, if not necessarily an everyday type.

Someone with power or at least the ability to put together a good at-bat would be preferable. The free-agent list contains such names as Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, David Peralta, Chad Pinder and Jurickson Profar. Some, and perhaps most, of these players will want more playing time than the Padres can offer. It might help that San Diego, even with a successful return by Tatis, could have designated hitter at-bats available.

The team’s ideal scenario may have Tatis in right field, Gold Glove Award winner Trent Grisham in center field and Juan Soto in left field. (Soto, despite his status as a Gold Glove finalist, remains a shaky defender, and Tatis has the stronger arm.) Tatis, a supreme athlete, also can play left or center, though the Padres might not give him the latter assignment unless they trade Grisham, who supplies the bulk of his value through center-field defense.

*Not on the 40-man roster


Including Grisham, the Padres do not have many major-league trade candidates who might appeal to other teams through a combination of club control and remaining upside. Dealing any of these players for, say, starting pitching might not be to San Diego’s net benefit, either. This Padres roster is more star-laden than any before it, but also thin in multiple areas. Meanwhile, the farm system is depleted after this past summer’s trades for Soto, Hader, Drury and Josh Bell.

The Padres do have one big minor-league chip left: 19-year-old shortstop Jackson Merrill, who recently impressed as one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. Bogaerts’ signing and the team’s intention to keep Machado beyond next year might encourage Preller to explore possible deals involving Merrill as he tries to upgrade a formidable but flawed roster.

There are other factors to consider, too. The fact that no one truly knows what is going to happen with Machado’s opt-out, for example. Or Bogaerts’ and Merrill’s projected ability to eventually play other infield positions. Plus, there was a reason the Padres hung on to Merrill in early August, even as they traded away the likes of CJ AbramsMacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III and James Wood.

In addition to possessing five average or better tools, Merrill receives almost universal praise for his acumen and budding leadership skills. Some team officials have strayed into hyperbole, comparing the teenager’s makeup to that of all-time greats. The point is, the Padres value Merrill immensely. They likely would not give him up for anything short of star-level impact.

I feel like we need 1 more C .. AAA/MLB.. I dont think Alfaro cones back on a Minor league deal nor does Hedges... But if we don't trade for One of the Jays trio... how about old pal Luis Torrens on a minor/MLB league deal . Just like Teheran... Good Insutance and solid backup .. low cost insurance

I think even a trio of meh signings say 1B/DHVoit + OF/DH Peralta and SP Davies.. would go a long way to "stabilizing" our roster/depth

I'd hold on to the top specs.. Maybe use some combination of (Rosario/Khner/Mears/Cristmat/Morejon/Baez ) to get an arm like NYY Schmidt or better.  Or a COF/1B like Seth Brown (A's).. BUT try to not touch Merrill/Zavala and Lesko if at all possible...

Go into the deadline aggressive on a SP (still think Othani for 2 months is key.. for 1 2 JPN players co-existing and thriving on a WS quest might make it plausible to extend Othani or erase the notion that 2 JPN players can't co-exist in one MLB team)..

Adam Duvall/David Peralta might be a poor man's > duo in 2023 than Drury/Brantley.. and probably 50% cheaper

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