Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2022, 9:45 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 9:08 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2022, 8:30 am

Quick thoughts

If LAA can't extend Othani this offseason they got to trade him right?

If so can we put a compeling enough package together for 1 yr of Othani..(assuming we go all in on resigning him)..

Knowing the LAA weaknesses and strengths does Croneworth + Merrill + Mears + Snelling + Baez and Cosgrove get it done?

Part 2..LAA does not trade Othani and does not extend him..and they sell off at Deadline..what is Othani worth at that point? Snelling + Mears and Baez?

The consensus is they will not trade him this winter ... in part due the incredible revenue he brings in both domestically and in Japan ... in part credibility with fans ... in in part due to the process of selling the ball club (no idea where the new owners stand).

However IF they put him on the market (even next trade deadline) ... Padres have nowhere near the talent to deal to land him vs what other bidders can (and would) offer. Padres cleaned house with the Soto deal and really only Merrill is left ... maybe Campusano as a secondary piece ... but the 2022 draft picks need to actually perform a bit before the have any major traded value (they were not that high of picks in the grand scheme).

Looks like a perfect fit in SF as a FA ... they need a super star and really will have the money as their current old guard phases out. Judge and Otani in SF beginning in 2024.

You just gave AJP the ammo he needed when you said we don't have enough.. Lets Go..and don't forget if not for the no DH in the NL Othani would have been a Padre back when he ended up deciding between LAA and runner up SD...

Why 2023 (acquisition) makes sense..Othani Low $$ can sign Senga and pit together the greatest JPN Starting rotation in MLB history in 2023..Historical things matter to JPN players

1.Yu 2.OTHANI 3. Musgrove 4. SENGA 5.Snell would be "unbelievable"

Lineup

1. Tatis CF

2. Soto RF

3. Manny 3B

4. Othani DH

5. Drury 1B (back at 5/40)

6. Profar LF

7. Nola C

8. Kim SS

9. Rosario 2B (Croneworth partnof Othani deal)

Total $$ in Othani $7mil + Senga $14mil + Drury +$8 mil

 

Also timetable wise as Snell + Yu expire ($36mil combined) and Pomz/Hader expire ($24 mil) Padres (Othani $7 /Soto $25) would have $92 milper to extend Soto and retain Othani beyond 2023 and 24.. setting the team up for at least 5 yrs of Tatis/Machado/Soto/Othani murderers row of a lineup..and Othani/Musgrove/Senga at top of a Padres rotation..with $$ to add a 4th SP or a positional upgrade..

A lot to digest and I don't think a rental Othani costs as much as a 1 1/2 yr of Castillo.. more in line with a Machado + one 50 spec more type deal for 2 months of Othani.. look at what rentals went for at the deadline..nowhere near what 1 yr + dudes fetched...

Quote from BoosterSD on September 30, 2022, 12:28 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2022, 8:30 am

Quick thoughts

If LAA can't extend Othani this offseason they got to trade him right?

If so can we put a compeling enough package together for 1 yr of Othani..(assuming we go all in on resigning him)..

Knowing the LAA weaknesses and strengths does Croneworth + Merrill + Mears + Snelling + Baez and Cosgrove get it done?

Part 2..LAA does not trade Othani and does not extend him..and they sell off at Deadline..what is Othani worth at that point? Snelling + Mears and Baez?

Including Crone is not smart, dont strengthen a spot by weakening another.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 30, 2022, 1:04 pm

I'm not even going to think about what a season with Tatis/Soto/Machado/Ohtano would be like.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 1:28 pm

Maybe I have this wrong but think Otani is in ARB3 for 2023 (his contract was just 2021-2). So would expect his 2023 ARB will be the highest ARB on record. Add big 2023 contract for Soto and Hader via arbitration … hard to see spending even more money on Senga and Dixon or any other costly FA.

Sort of academic … for 1 year of the best player in MLB some team (with money) will offer more that appeals to LAA than a low A INF in Merrill, a group of second tier / speculations, and a 29 year old Cronenworth who has little value for a team that is more rebuilding than contending vs Houston / Seattle. Someone will lead with a prime prospect and a prime second prospect.

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 1:49 pm

Just read an analysis of the factors that will result in Otani setting the record (by a lot) for ARB3. Current record is $27MM to Betts.

They started with Otani (the hitter) deserves a better decision than the Betts’ $27MM based on platform years. Then layered in the value of Otani (the pitcher) coupled with the subjective value of the “extra roster slot”. Then topped all that with the value he brings in the marketing revenue he brings to the club via merchandise in both the US and Japan.

Their estimate for the ARB3 …. $50M+/-.

Way more than I would have guessed BUT if close … probably eliminates almost all teams and should lower any trade chips given which in turn may diminish the desire for LAA to make a deal and lose all the marketing revenues that offset the ARB3 dollars.

Has the makings of Otani staying with LAA.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 30, 2022, 2:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 1:49 pm

Just read an analysis of the factors that will result in Otani setting the record (by a lot) for ARB3. Current record is $27MM to Betts.

They started with Otani (the hitter) deserves a better decision than the Betts’ $27MM based on platform years. Then layered in the value of Otani (the pitcher) coupled with the subjective value of the “extra roster slot”. Then topped all that with the value he brings in the marketing revenue he brings to the club via merchandise in both the US and Japan.

Their estimate for the ARB3 …. $50M+/-.

Way more than I would have guessed BUT if close … probably eliminates almost all teams and should lower any trade chips given which in turn may diminish the desire for LAA to make a deal and lose all the marketing revenues that offset the ARB3 dollars.

Has the makings of Otani staying with LAA.

Here is a good analysis for valuing Ohtani.

https://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/next-contract-series-shohei-ohtani-1532/

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 2:35 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 30, 2022, 2:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 1:49 pm

Just read an analysis of the factors that will result in Otani setting the record (by a lot) for ARB3. Current record is $27MM to Betts.

They started with Otani (the hitter) deserves a better decision than the Betts’ $27MM based on platform years. Then layered in the value of Otani (the pitcher) coupled with the subjective value of the “extra roster slot”. Then topped all that with the value he brings in the marketing revenue he brings to the club via merchandise in both the US and Japan.

Their estimate for the ARB3 …. $50M+/-.

Way more than I would have guessed BUT if close … probably eliminates almost all teams and should lower any trade chips given which in turn may diminish the desire for LAA to make a deal and lose all the marketing revenues that offset the ARB3 dollars.

Has the makings of Otani staying with LAA.

Here is a good analysis for valuing Ohtani.

https://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/next-contract-series-shohei-ohtani-1532/

 

Good analysis … sort of a second projection of a BIG ARB3 and a mega FA deal.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 30, 2022, 3:05 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 2:35 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 30, 2022, 2:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2022, 1:49 pm

Just read an analysis of the factors that will result in Otani setting the record (by a lot) for ARB3. Current record is $27MM to Betts.

They started with Otani (the hitter) deserves a better decision than the Betts’ $27MM based on platform years. Then layered in the value of Otani (the pitcher) coupled with the subjective value of the “extra roster slot”. Then topped all that with the value he brings in the marketing revenue he brings to the club via merchandise in both the US and Japan.

Their estimate for the ARB3 …. $50M+/-.

Way more than I would have guessed BUT if close … probably eliminates almost all teams and should lower any trade chips given which in turn may diminish the desire for LAA to make a deal and lose all the marketing revenues that offset the ARB3 dollars.

Has the makings of Otani staying with LAA.

Here is a good analysis for valuing Ohtani.

https://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/next-contract-series-shohei-ohtani-1532/

 

Good analysis … sort of a second projection of a BIG ARB3 and a mega FA deal.

Yeah, kind of a backs up for your thought that he could see $50M in salary next season. With them stating that $55M could come into play. On the opposite side of the discussion, what is the biggest jump in arbitration in ML history? I believe it is Betts, that went from $950K to $10.5M in one year via file and trial, that is 11 times his previous years salary. So with Ohtani making $5.5M in 2022, does he get as big of jump, due to him already making some money, or does the side arbitrator side with him? If he were to match the 11 times jump in pay, that could push his 2023 salary to $60.5M for one year, which I think would make him the highest paid athlete in the US 4 major sports. There would be three futbol (soccer) players ahead of him.

Either way, I think that prevents a lot of teams trading for him.

Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2022, 1:17 pm

Looks as though LAA got a deal:

Angels, Shohei Ohtani Avoid Arbitration With One-Year, $30MM Contract For 2023