Quote from BoosterSD on September 28, 2022, 8:35 am

Personally Fenn, I dont think we can state that "things" wont happen when it comes to dollars and Siedler. 3 years ago, we never thought SD would even come close to a $150M, let alone be kissing/passing the CBT threshold. I dont think Siedler will hold anything back for another push in 2023. Its only money and he has plenty. Now, 2024 could be a different story; however, I dont see SD treading lightly for 2023.

Guess time will tell.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 28, 2022, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2022, 7:57 am

Not going to happens BUT can speculate on a scenario that could (but wont) happen.

1. Siedler has to OK a payroll in the $250-260MM range.

2. Padres let all the FA to be depart and replace them with league minimum options.

3. IF the three opt in players do opt in … I think (not sure) … the Padres can buy them out in the $1 - 1.5MM range each.  Padres buy them out.

4. Keep Soto and Hader via Arb but any other non-starter Arb player making more than $2MM gets non-tendered (e.g. Alfaro).

Offense: Soto-Tatis-Judge-Machado-Kim-Cronenworth-Nola with 1B/DH open for Dixon, Campusano, Rosario, Grisham, Azocar, or a league minimum signing.

Pitching: Snell, Darvish, Musgrove, 2 TBD starters, but pen should be decent with a lot of options.

Add another $10MM and get a 4th SP … works IF Seidler is willing to take the risk.

Again, not going to happen.

 

That ain't happening BUT what is happening is OTHANI in 2024.. Oh Doctor!

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2022, 8:54 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 28, 2022, 8:35 am

Personally Fenn, I dont think we can state that "things" wont happen when it comes to dollars and Siedler. 3 years ago, we never thought SD would even come close to a $150M, let alone be kissing/passing the CBT threshold. I dont think Siedler will hold anything back for another push in 2023. Its only money and he has plenty. Now, 2024 could be a different story; however, I dont see SD treading lightly for 2023.

Guess time will tell.

Not going to happen more refers to what needs to happen to the rest of the roster … agree that IF he sees going to $250MM as a winning strategy he might do it …

Then again … save some dry powder for a push for Otani and retaining Soto?

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2022, 11:31 am

Thanks a lot Fenn for making us consider we could add Judge.

But if anything I think they make some moves next year to find a way to extend Soto.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2022, 12:22 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2022, 11:31 am

Thanks a lot Fenn for making us consider we could add Judge.

But if anything I think they make some moves next year to find a way to extend Soto.

 

A chess match trying to set up future moves … with Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove locked for the future with large coin … a pitching staff the disappears other than Musgrove after 2023 … other “open spots” to be filled then

2023 Judge FA … 2024 Otani FA … 2025 Soto FA (those three will total at least $135MM AAV) add all to the current big three and will be $220MM for six players … clearly not in the cards.

So no guarantees that any would want to sign with the Padres or will not get a superior contract elsewhere. Remember Soto (think Boras) turned down a mega offer from WASH for Soto and loves to take his guys to FA … if the Padres wait until Soto decides and does not get him while passing on their shot for Judge or Otani could be frustrating.

If can afford only one … not splitting hairs among them … do you make your best shot on Judge and if signed pass on Otani / Soto. If not signed take your best shot at Otani and if signed pass on Soto. If not signed take your best shot at Soto and if not signed ?????? Don’t know who else will be a major FA at that point.

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 28, 2022, 12:43 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2022, 12:22 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2022, 11:31 am

Thanks a lot Fenn for making us consider we could add Judge.

But if anything I think they make some moves next year to find a way to extend Soto.

 

A chess match trying to set up future moves … with Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove locked for the future with large coin … a pitching staff the disappears other than Musgrove after 2023 … other “open spots” to be filled then

2023 Judge FA … 2024 Otani FA … 2025 Soto FA (those three will total at least $135MM AAV) add all to the current big three and will be $220MM for six players … clearly not in the cards.

So no guarantees that any would want to sign with the Padres or will not get a superior contract elsewhere. Remember Soto (think Boras) turned down a mega offer from WASH for Soto and loves to take his guys to FA … if the Padres wait until Soto decides and does not get him while passing on their shot for Judge or Otani could be frustrating.

If can afford only one … not splitting hairs among them … do you make your best shot on Judge and if signed pass on Otani / Soto. If not signed take your best shot at Otani and if signed pass on Soto. If not signed take your best shot at Soto and if not signed ?????? Don’t know who else will be a major FA at that point.

 

 

Add SP Senga in offseason 5/70

Yu and Snell expire after 23.. Othani comes in 7/280

2024 SP Othani/Mus/Senga/???/Groome

If Yu wants to continue P might take a discount .. he mentioned in an interview he wanted to transition more into a family man (when asked how much longer he wanted to pitch) which also means he likely wouldn't want to move so 2/36 or 3/54 type extension could satisfy him

Imagine the JPN media/Marketing and $$ that SDP could bring in with a rotation of Yu/Othani and Senga?? Enough to afford a $265mil payroll and then some

 

Starting IF 2024 - 1B Doersching/2B Crone/SS Merrill/3B Machado

OF Tatis/(Azocar/Grish)/Soto

DH Othani

Money saved $$ Snell/Kim/Profar/Pomz/etc etc

Being a little aggressive with Merrillband Doersching but I think both end 2023 at AA.. and Merrill in particular can be that AA to MLB jumper (like Tatis and CJ ).. Doersching body is mature already so as long as he aint striking out at over 35%.. and is walking 10% or so of the time while displaying his 80 grade pop.. I am fine with him getting a shot..especially with that lineup able to carry a rookie or 2 as they learn .. very much in the way Braves are carrying a few rookies in 2022... Merrillnis in that class of spec.. and Doersching could show the bat to be an impact player

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2022, 2:56 pm

I sign the guy who won’t have even hit his prime yet with the .425 career OBP that Walks more than he K’s.

We take for granted he’s only 23 right now and if/when we re-sign him he could be a 40 HR per year guy.

Both Judge and Ohtani will still be good of course but will not be near their prime even at the beginning of their new deals….let alone in the middle.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on September 28, 2022, 4:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2022, 2:56 pm

I sign the guy who won’t have even hit his prime yet with the .425 career OBP that Walks more than he K’s.

We take for granted he’s only 23 right now and if/when we re-sign him he could be a 40 HR per year guy.

Both Judge and Ohtani will still be good of course but will not be near their prime even at the beginning of their new deals….let alone in the middle.

 

Stay dry over the next couple of days Mr. P

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2022, 8:30 am

Quick thoughts

If LAA can't extend Othani this offseason they got to trade him right?

If so can we put a compeling enough package together for 1 yr of Othani..(assuming we go all in on resigning him)..

Knowing the LAA weaknesses and strengths does Croneworth + Merrill + Mears + Snelling + Baez and Cosgrove get it done?

Part 2..LAA does not trade Othani and does not extend him..and they sell off at Deadline..what is Othani worth at that point? Snelling + Mears and Baez?