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2023 offseason
#1821 · December 9, 2022, 12:59 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2022, 12:25 pmIn the "not my money" mode consider the Padres current CBT payroll sits at the beginning of the 3rd tier and as a second time offender the next signing up to about $18MM carries a 42% penalty and then after the payroll moves above $270MM the penalty becomes 75%. Cross $290MM (as the METS) the over is penalized at a whopping 90%.
So, Padres are on track to add to the offense with a 9th hitter and bench ... could cost at least that first $18MM with some of the options being discussed generating a $7.5MM penalty. Then add Senga at maybe $20MM would generate another $15MM penalty. Just staying under the 90% penalty threshold.
Maybe Siedler does not care ... what is another $22.5MM but whew?
I am sure there is some economic analysis that would suggest giving a longer contract at a lower AAV is justified with the lower penalties and the time value of money. Plus if somewhat confident in the player ... will get some good production in the extra years at a bargain price as contracts escalate. Player may like the security and it would make sense to them.
So let say Senga is negotiating $100MM/5 ... but the $20MM AAV carries a $15MM penalty (maybe each year considering the other contracts) ... would it be smarter for the Padres to go to a 7-8 year offer (Senga is only 30) to get his AAV down and lowering the penalties.
Might have been a strategy in the Bogaerts contract.
Lets also remember CBT goes up every year... 2023 is $233mil for tier 1.. 2024 is $237... and with Hader/Pomz/Garcia/Snell/Yu...close to $60mil drops off.. so even if we use $20 to extend Yu..and say Padres push Payroll to $280 for 2023.. they could still easily "reset" CBT in 2024.. or just say fk it and go get Othani.. the CBT goes up every yr so if they have 6 guys signed longterm by yr 5 or so they should be one level lower..while fielding a team that would be pretty much set yr to yr. With SP studs arriving 25 26 27+.. A franchise C in 2027 or 2028 (Salas) and a few rookie spec cornerstones Merrill/Zavala etc.. so this model could work long term if we can navigate the next 2 or 3 yrs
#1822 · December 9, 2022, 1:21 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 9, 2022, 12:43 pmAre we talking about the rumors from Jenna Toles? Say that one out loud and I think it's safe to say it's not a reliable source. Same goes for Mike Hawk, Ben Dover and all the other troll accounts that pop up in Padres land.
No I don't know who that is...was a dude I know that.
Either way...not saying it's for real either way.
Just the chatter.....I learned that lesson with Jud.
#1823 · December 9, 2022, 1:34 pm
Kind of liking the idea of trading for an older (late starter) like Seth Brown OF/1B/DH A's ..will be 30 but like Nola just getting his feet wet at the MLB level.. If anything he is a ++ platoon. Lefty .. or a solid reg DH/1B/OF with solid bat...
Was looking at 40 man roster and if season started today ALL our positions players (13) would be on our 26 man roster.. we need depth/ and better players than Sullivan/Batten at the low end of the 13...
I look at a guy like Rosario who could be Urias like or better..But who (if on the 26) won't see but a token AB or 2 a week in San Diego and doesn't need AAA anymore..as a perfect guy for the A's who can give him regular time and perhaps have a starting level mid infielder... as part of a package for Brown...
Batten can then be that Alcantara utility role player as the 13th guy..with Azocar being 12th and backup CF... 9 = Brown DH/1B/OF 10= Campy 11th = Dixon... Sullivan to AAA (or of he is out of options perhaps a waiver pickup in that AAA/26 depth role)
#1824 · December 9, 2022, 1:35 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 9, 2022, 1:21 pmQuote from Jeremy Hill on December 9, 2022, 12:43 pmAre we talking about the rumors from Jenna Toles? Say that one out loud and I think it's safe to say it's not a reliable source. Same goes for Mike Hawk, Ben Dover and all the other troll accounts that pop up in Padres land.
No I don't know who that is...was a dude I know that.
Either way...not saying it's for real either way.
Just the chatter.....I learned that lesson with Jud.
Ok I saw a tweet from her saying we were about to land Senga posted on Padres Reddit. I was surprised how many people thought it was real.
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MrPadre19
#1825 · December 9, 2022, 1:57 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 1:34 pmKind of liking the idea of trading for an older (late starter) like Seth Brown OF/1B/DH A's ..will be 30 but like Nola just getting his feet wet at the MLB level.. If anything he is a ++ platoon. Lefty .. or a solid reg DH/1B/OF with solid bat...
Was looking at 40 man roster and if season started today ALL our positions players (13) would be on our 26 man roster.. we need depth/ and better players than Sullivan/Batten at the low end of the 13...
I look at a guy like Rosario who could be Urias like or better..But who (if on the 26) won't see but a token AB or 2 a week in San Diego and doesn't need AAA anymore..as a perfect guy for the A's who can give him regular time and perhaps have a starting level mid infielder... as part of a package for Brown...
Batten can then be that Alcantara utility role player as the 13th guy..with Azocar being 12th and backup CF... 9 = Brown DH/1B/OF 10= Campy 11th = Dixon... Sullivan to AAA (or of he is out of options perhaps a waiver pickup in that AAA/26 depth role)
Brown would be a good fit over the incumbents for the bench / 9th bat ... a good LHH vs RHP (not so much vs LHP) ... not great defense but passable ... and at league minimum (4 years control) great for the payroll. Since he is 30 OAK should be willing to move him for the right price given they are rebuilding.
Hard to value a package to get him ... Rosario makes sense but probably a bit more likely out of the bullpen.
#1826 · December 9, 2022, 3:38 pm
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
So after Xander we are at $233,400+,000 or a little under $500k over tier 1..
#1827 · December 9, 2022, 3:58 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 3:38 pmhttps://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
So after Xander we are at $233,400+,000 or a little under $500k over tier 1..
One more large contract and a smaller 1 or 2 should keep us on level 3. We would have to spend less than $16.6 million more to stay in tier 2. I don't see that happening. Senga will cost more than that alone, but we could possibly fit both Senga and Brantley under $270 million.
#1828 · December 9, 2022, 4:18 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 3:38 pmhttps://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
So after Xander we are at $233,400+,000 or a little under $500k over tier 1..
Think Spotrac has missed again … yes the name Bogaerts but don’t seem to include his dollars.
I will stick with Roster Resource who are much clearer on who / and how much is included in the CBT payroll. They are at $254MM … just into the second tier.
#1829 · December 9, 2022, 4:27 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on December 9, 2022, 3:58 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 3:38 pmhttps://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
So after Xander we are at $233,400+,000 or a little under $500k over tier 1..
One more large contract and a smaller 1 or 2 should keep us on level 3. We would have to spend less than $16.6 million more to stay in tier 2. I don't see that happening. Senga will cost more than that alone, but we could possibly fit both Senga and Brantley under $270 million.
This is assuming AJ doesn’t have some plan to trade someone.
#1830 · December 9, 2022, 5:42 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2022, 4:18 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 3:38 pmhttps://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
So after Xander we are at $233,400+,000 or a little under $500k over tier 1..
Think Spotrac has missed again … yes the name Bogaerts but don’t seem to include his dollars.
I will stick with Roster Resource who are much clearer on who / and how much is included in the CBT payroll. They are at $254MM … just into the second tier.
If you go to Bogaerts on that Spotrac link and scroll all the way to the right, his salary is listed under Lux Tax Salary. It is accounted for.