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2023 offseason

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Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 7:44 am

I prefer Drury to both of those 2... and besides Brandon was our best hitter in the NLCS.. so I value that a lot.. But ideally a Lefty (Brantley) would be my guy... Profar's bat not super ..Myers bat too inconsistent.. Brantley is a steady eddie

I just dont think that Drury is not coming back, since someone will pay him to be a starter, and he is not going to be a regular starter on this team. And he is RHH. Between Drury and Profar, I think Profar is the better choice, due to being a SH.

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Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 9, 2022, 7:44 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2022, 7:26 am

If the only option for the 9th hitter is

Myers … 2 year / $16MM

Profar … 3 years / $27MM

Both can cover OF/1B/DH so meet the versatility needs … both have a track record with the Padres and apparently a very good clubhouse presence (especially Profar). Both are basically “average” hitters which is all that is really needed.

Side: heard that Profar really would like to return to SD but Padres do need to navigate the Boras factor.

Note that the suggested contract are just my wild proposal … Profar is seeking more AAV … but comparable hitters seem to be in excess of $10MM AAV. So in sense I have those two proposed on a bargain contract.

Personally, would be a hard call between the two … would guess Preller goes for Profar.

I prefer Drury to both of those 2... and besides Brandon was our best hitter in the NLCS.. so I value that a lot.. But ideally a Lefty (Brantley) would be my guy... Profar's bat not super ..Myers bat too inconsistent.. Brantley is a steady eddie

Those two probably don’t meet the low cost criteria … plus Brantley (who I really like) does not meet the health reliability criteria … and Drury is not an experienced OF and Brantley is not a 1B option.

Both should be in the $12MM zone and I was targeting under $10MM.

For me less about the hitter more about the versatility at a low cost.

OK a different hypothetical based on the fact that a number of teams really NEED a CF and now that the only real two FA are off the market (Nimmo and Bellinger) coupled with the Padres with Bogaerts / Kim basically eliminating the need for Tatis at SS and the belief Tatis can be a excellent CF … does that make Grisham more of a trade chip?

We may not love Grisham but a two time gold glove … 3 years control … only $2.6MM+/- for 2023 … power … even with his low BA he has to have a fair amount of trade value to a team the NEEDS a CF. Not, by himself, a premium return but coupled with maybe a RP and a prospect might get a useful return.

Now that opens up another hole but if Tatis is in CF … getting better offensive production than Grisham out of a corner OF further upgrades the offense and corner OF are more available than CF.

A bit depends on the return … but if not that corner OF … Padres could be more aggressive financially on a FA corner OF.

RISK: Tatis as the CF get injured and only Azocar on the bench and no AAA quality. Obviously no CF of quality would be available early in the season.

Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2022, 8:15 am

Now that opens up another hole but if Tatis is in CF … getting better offensive production than Grisham out of a corner OF further upgrades the offense and corner OF are more available than CF.

A bit depends on the return … but if not that corner OF … Padres could be more aggressive financially on a FA corner OF.

RISK: Tatis as the CF get injured and only Azocar on the bench and no AAA quality. Obviously no CF of quality would be available early in the season.

And Azocar would be the opening day starter, and the only CF starter for the first 20 days while Tatis completes his suspension. Now we probably have enough offense now to cover Azocars bat for 20 days, but dont want to start the season at, or just under .500 while we wait for Tatis to return.

**Note, looked at Gamel, and he has played CF as recently as 2021. So he could be the emergency back up behind Azocar. Not to mention, that IF SD resigns Profar, he has played CF as well.

So yes, I could see a trade of Grisham, and in that same theory, Kim as well for the right fit or piece coming back. With the add of Bogaerts, SD now has 6 players that have all played SS in professional baseball. Bogaerts, Crone, Kim, Nola, Machado, and Tatis all have played SS in the ML except for Nola, who last played SS in AAA in 2016.

Keep Grisham.

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Quote from WindsorUK on December 9, 2022, 8:22 am

Keep Grisham.

Most likely scenario.

Given the need for CF in MLB … Grisham’s value is much higher that we think and taking the other side of the case … he provides great value to the Padres considering they would have to scramble for quality CF play if Tatis has a hard transition plus really scramble if Tatis has a long term injury.

Padres have the offense without him … but getting stability in CF with gold glove defense at an economical $2.6MM is very good for this team. Remember for a roughly equal player in 2022 … Bellinger … the price tag was $17.5MM.

 

Side: do think Tatis’ history of various long term injuries going back to his minor league days has to be considered in filling out the rest of the roster. Maybe they get lucky and Tatis stays healthy … but need to play the odds and protect against the chance of injury in the most injured plagued position player.

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Strahm to Phillies

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 9, 2022, 8:53 am

Strahm to Phillies

Just to show the increase in salaries from last season to this season. Last year Strahm signed for $3M and this season he gets 2 years at $7.5M each season.

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Quote from fenn68 on December 9, 2022, 8:46 am
Quote from WindsorUK on December 9, 2022, 8:22 am

Keep Grisham.

Most likely scenario.

Padres have the offense without him … but getting stability in CF with gold glove defense at an economical $2.6MM is very good for this team.

The thought behind keeping Grisham, along with his defense, and his price tag which is low, he is a LH bat, which SD is low on at this time. And you would have to think his bat bounces back this season. Remember when we started the 2022 season, we did not have Tatis, Soto, Bell, or Drury. Outside of Machado and Hosmer for April, there was no steady offense and Im sure that both Grisham and Crone felt some added pressure to try and replace Tatis bat.

This season with Machado, Soto, and Bogaerts, both Grisham and Crone can go back to being complimentary bats. So definitely could see Grisham get back to that more normal line for him of .230 BA, .330 OBP, .410 SLG with 15 SB and 20 HRs.

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Quote from WindsorUK on December 9, 2022, 8:22 am

Keep Grisham.

I agree.

If he bounces back even just a little offensively he will be a 3+ WAR player.

Also with the new rules his speed is welcome.

If nothing else he's a perfect 4th outfilder.GG defensive replacement...pinch runner...pinch bunter...LH bat

So even if we get a corner OF and put Tatis in CF I don't want to trade Grish.

I'll say one more time..sign Senga/Brantley/Myers and call it an off season.

Solidifies the rotation.....the DH spot...and 4th OF/1B bench player.

Of course this depends on what others offer Myers.

Will somone pay him for what he "might" do and give him a starting position?

 

 

 

 

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