Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 18, 2022, 8:22 am

Groome got too fat 265lbs and lost endurance and velo -2mph ..many scouts I've talk to think he can get that back by dropping 20-30lbs.. so Groome ought to join Musgrove in SD in the offseason..get in shape ..sit 95mph in ST and watch him claim # 5 SP for 2023.. or # 6 if we go 6 again 1st half...or Not the ball is in his hands.. but he will 💯 one way or another be a solid return on a Veteran traded with $$..Last time was Shields +$$ for Tatis...this time Hosmer +$$ for Groome... can lighting strike twice.. I think we are all going to love Groome soon!

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2022, 10:08 am

Hope Groome realizes the BIG opportunity he has to make the 2023 starting rotation and commits himself to getting into great shape and listening to the Padres’ offseason instruction.

Clevinger / Manaea FA … no top prospect on the door step for 2023 … Martinez may opt out (or maybe continued to be used as a swing man). So, two clear opens slots (3 if they go with 6 starters). As of now would suspect Morejon is earmarked for one of the SP slots then ????????

Plus don’t discount the money factor … on the offense the Padres lose Myers, Bell, and Drury … maybe Profar. That could require money to be targeted for hitters. Could argue that the Padres will be more desperate for replacement bats (even with Tatis returning) that that “next SP”.  (Note a lot of the money “saved” from FA will go to the full season salary for Soto and Hader)

Ball is in Groome’s hand.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 18, 2022, 2:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2022, 10:08 am

Hope Groome realizes the BIG opportunity he has to make the 2023 starting rotation and commits himself to getting into great shape and listening to the Padres’ offseason instruction.

Clevinger / Manaea FA … no top prospect on the door step for 2023 … Martinez may opt out (or maybe continued to be used as a swing man). So, two clear opens slots (3 if they go with 6 starters). As of now would suspect Morejon is earmarked for one of the SP slots then ????????

Plus don’t discount the money factor … on the offense the Padres lose Myers, Bell, and Drury … maybe Profar. That could require money to be targeted for hitters. Could argue that the Padres will be more desperate for replacement bats (even with Tatis returning) that that “next SP”.  (Note a lot of the money “saved” from FA will go to the full season salary for Soto and Hader)

Ball is in Groome’s hand.

I can pretty much guarantee that the Padres are looking at Morejon as a future closer/current reliever and Groome as an emergency starter at best at this point.

Morejon's last 4 years in MLB have consisted of 8, 19.1, 4.2 and 26 innings this year. 26 innings MAX the last 4 years due to injuries. Do you really think they will try to stretch him out to over 100 innings in 1 year? With his injury history? I don't.

Groome is a failed first rounder at this point. He has averaged 60 innings per year over the last 5, so he doesn't have the endurance to last more than half a year. Besides that I'm sure the Sox had been trying to get him to lose that weight ever since he gained it...to no avail. Could he have a dynamic 1 year turn around, lose 30 pounds, up his stuff and become a solid to good pitcher? Sure. Chances are less than 10%.

I see the Padres likely elevating Morejon to a setup role next year, in preparation of him taking over the closer role when Hader hits FA. I see the Padres signing at least 2 starting pitchers (possibly including Clevinger) along with the standard journeyman bottom of the rotation candidates. I expect the team to try to sign a few of those journeyman starters to a minor league contract if possible, where they will join Groome. We can hope for a breakout, but we are probably looking at a whoever is pitching best at that moment to be called up type of situation.

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2022, 4:30 pm

I just can’t see the Padres spending the money over the threshold at the level that will get quality for two SP and a couple of impact bats to cover the FA losses. Exceed the threshold … probably … but not so much to do all those backfills and some upgrades.

They have to take their best shots with some low cost internal options … and don’t see much for the offense leading me to see them gambling in Morejon / Groome as SP.

Probably a 6 man rotation to keep the workload down.  They at least have some decent prospects for the pen in Castillo and Cosgrove as LHP options and RHP options in Baez and Lugo.

Now giving them the chance is not the same as them being successful … so we will see.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 18, 2022, 5:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2022, 4:30 pm

I just can’t see the Padres spending the money over the threshold at the level that will get quality for two SP and a couple of impact bats to cover the FA losses. Exceed the threshold … probably … but not so much to do all those backfills and some upgrades.

They have to take their best shots with some low cost internal options … and don’t see much for the offense leading me to see them gambling in Morejon / Groome as SP.

Probably a 6 man rotation to keep the workload down.  They at least have some decent prospects for the pen in Castillo and Cosgrove as LHP options and RHP options in Baez and Lugo.

Now giving them the chance is not the same as them being successful … so we will see.

 

Azocar says CF is mine and Tatis got LF ..plus Grish 4th... Myers/Profar *if he opts out... not needed.. Campy can DH..Alfaro can DH...

If we bring Drury back we don't need much else from Bats

- Tatis CF/LF/RF/SS/DH

- Manny 3B/DH

- Kim 2B/SS/3B

- Soto RF/LF/DH

- Crone 2B/SS/1B

- Grish CF/LF/RF

- Azocar CF/LF/RF

-Campusano DH/C

-Nola C/2B/1B

-Alfaro C/DH

11) DRURY 1B/2B/3B/DH (almost a must resign)

12 + 13) Liberato/Martin/Batten/Rosario/Kholwey/Dixon(minor FA ST invite)/

Bottomline ..if we resign Drury .. we can add a low cost FA like Peralta/Myers/ and not go crazy on Nimmo/Bell/Benetemdi all of which will cost too much $$

SP.. Clev probably cam be had for 3/30 @ this point and we all know 2nd yr back from TJ> 1st so an upside risk ..Martinez can be insurance

With only Drury and Clev brought back (assuming Profar opts out..Nick and Suarez opt in).. we would have enough $$ to go after the JPN SP Fenn brought up earlier on here .. 5/70?

Also look for 2 or 3 BP arms to be move perhaps for a SP in AA/AAA 40 man roster type (like Groome) that can also provide depth #6 arms with Groome/XX?/Wethers/Khner.. we have like 15 BP arms that are MLB ready come 2023.. including the ones already here and likely 2 or 3 would need to move to balance our 40 man roster 7-8 in SD .. and room for inj/AAA Depth 5.. Baez/Jakob/Cosgrove/Felipe/Lugo/Kerr/Castillo/others

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2022, 2:45 pm

As I speculated on the Martinez forum ... now thinking Profar opt in. Early in the season he was hot and I had no question he would opt out but his 2nd half / Sept performance really has hurt his offense profile ... especially for a LF. Now I doubt he can beat a $7.5MM 2023.

Drury .... no idea what will get him signed ... low cost NOW ... but his 2022 season should elevate him to that $8MM+ level (and maybe multi-year.) His history is not that compelling but not bad ... and he can play 1B/3B/2B which adds to his marketability and expands teams that may be interested.

If they re-sign Drury and Clevinger (suggested in the Martinez forum) ... those two alone should cost $15-20MM over the threshold then add the cost of the penalty. Then:

OF: Profar - Tatis - Soto-  (Grisham / Azocar)

INF: Machado - Kim - Cronenworth - Drury -  (Rosario)

C/DH: Nola - Alfaro - Campusano

Is that a good enough offense to compete for the playoffs ... should be with the return of Tatis and a full season of Soto added to Machado. Bell and Myers walk (more expensive than Drury). Given this line-up ... do they have a lower cost 1B option that would be "covered" by the big hitters ... and spend more on SP?

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2022, 3:13 pm

If you look at Drury as a Padre, and then Wil Myers year in SD, who is better option to resign?

Drury age 30, limited to the INF, and has a 2022 SD line of .237 BA/.276 OBP/ .474 SLG, with 6 2Bs and 7 HRs with 24 RBIs in 123 PA.

Myers age 31, can play both 1B and OF, and has 2022 line of .253 BA/ .303 OBP / .365 SLG with 14 2Bs and 4 HRs with 31 RBIs in 254 PA.

We know Myers is NOT getting a monster payday after his time in SD.

So if Drury is $8M+, and Myers would resign for around $7M, is Drury the better option, or Myers, or player TBD??

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 19, 2022, 3:39 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2022, 3:13 pm

If you look at Drury as a Padre, and then Wil Myers year in SD, who is better option to resign?

Drury age 30, limited to the INF, and has a 2022 SD line of .237 BA/.276 OBP/ .474 SLG, with 6 2Bs and 7 HRs with 24 RBIs in 123 PA.

Myers age 31, can play both 1B and OF, and has 2022 line of .253 BA/ .303 OBP / .365 SLG with 14 2Bs and 4 HRs with 31 RBIs in 254 PA.

We know Myers is NOT getting a monster payday after his time in SD.

So if Drury is $8M+, and Myers would resign for around $7M, is Drury the better option, or Myers, or player TBD??

Drury SLG and tendency to get runners home (RBIs) is way more valuable than Myers.. way more... Myers (however) on a 1 yr $3 mil or so (bench role ) and bounce back gamble on his part for FA 2024 might be a thing...then again he may want to do that in Cincy where he could hit 35+ bombs..

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2022, 4:05 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2022, 3:13 pm

If you look at Drury as a Padre, and then Wil Myers year in SD, who is better option to resign?

Drury age 30, limited to the INF, and has a 2022 SD line of .237 BA/.276 OBP/ .474 SLG, with 6 2Bs and 7 HRs with 24 RBIs in 123 PA.

Myers age 31, can play both 1B and OF, and has 2022 line of .253 BA/ .303 OBP / .365 SLG with 14 2Bs and 4 HRs with 31 RBIs in 254 PA.

We know Myers is NOT getting a monster payday after his time in SD.

So if Drury is $8M+, and Myers would resign for around $7M, is Drury the better option, or Myers, or player TBD??

If the price tag was about the same ... I would go with Myers based on better performance over the past 4 years (not get seduced by the Drury 2022 ... a lot in the hitters paradise of CINN). Myers is pretty consistent at a 1-2 WAR player / slightly above average wRC+. Drury has gone from a negative WAR to this year at 2.8. Overall Myers has had better production.

Even if Myers was slightly more than Drury ... would opt for Myers in a binary choice. Drop Myers in at 1B where he seems comfortable and plays decent defense and he should deliver a better slash line than Drury. Add that Myers has the superior versatility.

Plus, I just like to watch Myers play ... he really seems to enjoy the game and that makes it more watchable from my standpoint vs. the grumpy or unemotional players. If he does not have to be the focal point of the offense, and is not making $20MM, he would be the guy.

Of course if they find a "proven" player with better offense and a lower price ... sure, but not likely. That usually comes via trade and the Padres have no legit trade chips for a high production / low cost player.