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2023 offseason

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Eflin just signs with the Rays … 3 years / $40MM ($13.3MM AAV) … compare his 2022 SP stats with Martinez and not THAT MUCH different … beginning to look as though Martinez contract is a bargain … beginning to look as though the “better” SP options are going to really get paid and probably out of the Padres range.

The uncertainty of Senga moving to MLB is the one thing that will keep his price down.

Is it a gamble?

Yes….but if he pitches like a #2 or #3 he could be the steal of the off season.

Considering the cost of these mediocre Starters….I say he’s worth the gamble.

Bowden with some predictions.

Senga,  CHC 3/$72M. $24M per season ouch.

Conforto, CWS 2/$34M. That would be an over pay IMO.

Bell, CLE 3/$39M. I would take that deal for SD.

Benintendi, COL 5/$75M. That could work for SD as well.

Verlander, LAD 3/$135M.

Walker, MIL 3/$48M.

Bogaerts, PHI 7/$196M.

Quitana, STL 2/$28M. That would be a smart move for SD.

Bassitt, SD 4/$74M. I dont see SD losing the additional pieces for a player with the QO.

 

So how about.....if we sign Xander or Turner we trade Kim  along with a few prospects to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Jon Berti?

They need a SS.

Probably cost too much in prospects to add to Kim?

If we sign Turner the IF becomes Manny/Tatis/Turner/Cronenworth.

The OF Berti/Grisham/Soto:

Turner

Soto

Tatis

Machado

Cronenworth

Nola

Berti

Grisham

Darvish-Snell-Musgrove-Lopez-Martinez

Pre AS Break Lopez was in the Cy Young hunt.

Did he just tire?

He did throw 70 more innings than he ever had before

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2022, 6:39 am

So how about.....if we sign Xander or Turner we trade Kim  along with a few prospects to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Jon Berti?

If we sign Turner the IF becomes Manny/Tatis/Turner/Cronenworth.

The OF Berti/Grisham/Soto:

Darvish-Snell-Musgrove-Lopez-Martinez

Pre AS Break Lopez was in the Cy Young hunt.

Did he just tire?

If you are not going to place Turner at SS, then I think you would be better served defensively to put Turner in the OF, over Berti. Berti has played most of his career on the dirt.

I would go OF, Soto in LF, Turner in CF, and Grisham in RF.

I would go INF of Machado, Tatis, Berti, Crone.

Berti, Turner, Machado, Soto, Tatis, Crone, Campusano (need a better option), Grisham, Nola.

Don’t see the upside for MIA in this trade just getting Kim (better hitter, more expensive) than Rojas (better defender). Kim does have one more year control.

Lopez by himself should get more than two years of Kim. Lopez who had 30+ starts and an ERA 3s … only 28 … bargain estimated arb of $5.6MM … also has two control years … in this market that is way over paying for bad SP options, Lopez is a super bargain.

Not sure the Padres have the pieces even if they added in Merrill and Zavala as long term prospects. Sort of depends on how MIA looks at their 2023-4 playoff prospects … but if not optimistic … no reason to add Kim and instead just push for the max prospect package.

Just does not have the feel as a match from MIA perspective

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2022, 6:39 am

So how about.....if we sign Xander or Turner we trade Kim  along with a few prospects to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Jon Berti?

They need a SS.

Probably cost too much in prospects to add to Kim?

I jumped onto the trade simulator, and they have a very high value of Lopez. Not as much for Kim. I dont find that to be too realistic, since Kim really increased his value in 2022 IMO.

They did think that a trade of Kim, Grisham, and Zavala to MIA for Lopez and Berti was fair trade value. That would still leave SD looking for another OFer, and another LH bat. However, in signing Turner SD is going to blow by the CBT. So maybe just stroke another check and get Benintendi for LF.

Then you could go with an OF of Benintendi, Turner or Tatis, and Soto. And an INF of Machado, Turner or Tatis, Berti, and Crone.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2022, 7:54 am

Not sure the Padres have the pieces even if they added in Merrill and Zavala as long term prospects. Sort of depends on how MIA looks at their 2023-4 playoff prospects … but if not optimistic … no reason to add Kim and instead just push for the max prospect package.

Just does not have the feel as a match from MIA perspective

I know that simulator is not perfect, but its a 3rd party view of the pieces involved. . Yes, you will have each team with their own values based on scouts and other things, and at least gives a starting point.

That trade simulator puts a very high value on Merrill. Lopez is a 38.7 value, and Merrill is a 30.3 and Zavala is (7.8), so Merrill for Lopez should be close to a 1 for 1 on that point.

So in that scenario, a trade of Merrill, Zavala, and Campusano for Lopez and Berti (7.8) should work.

 

I was surprised to look at his baseball reference page and see that Turner's only time in the OF was 45 games in CF in 2016. If Grisham doesn't rebound offensively maybe they put Turner out there. I don't think they would move Grisham to a corner to accommodate Turner though.

I also think we are underrating Kim. He's already a valuable player and with another modest offensive gain he could be elite. Outside of Petco he was fairly comparable to Dansby Swanson. With his work ethic I think he keeps getting better and becomes a similar player.

Yes…and I’m sure he will be our SS on Opening Day and maybe for the season no matter who they acquire.But,if he’s going to be super utility it may serve the team better to turn him into a #2 or #3 SP with a few years control.

Even if we have to add Zavala or Liziarraga etc..

 

 

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