Quote from dusty on July 23, 2022, 10:15 am

If Contreras deal happens. One of Alfaro/Nola has to go. Myers and Tatis come back Abrams and Batten go (if CJ not already dealt). If Soto or Happ are Padres then (if not dealt) Ruiz probably goes down or one of the other position players are moved

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 10:26 am

Nola last 30 Days

281

.352

.365

Contreras

239 .331 .410

Alfaro

287 .325 .472

Alfaro and Contreras last 15 days are not good Alfaro> but still not good..While Nolas are trending the right way

Last 7 364 .391 .455 for Nola

 

Not feeling the Contreras vibe after this quick view especially when you factor Petco vs Wrigley (although Contreras #s at Petco are awesome)

LF is our worst position over the last 30 days .218 .326 .318 (Profar #'s)

For fun..Juan Soto last 30 days

298 .463 .574

Benitendi last 30

352 .427 .417

 

Grish OPS .698 last 30... Voit .798.. Crone .750ish... Hosmer ..697 (although mashing last 7)...

As the trade deadline nears

COF #1 priority..Best fit for a BAT

1B #2 (only if HOS can be moved otherwise Wil/Crone/Hos platoon might work)

CF #3 (Ruiz performance and Grishmans for that matter over the next week likely dictate if a better option should be pursued)

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 11:49 am

Quote from dusty on July 23, 2022, 10:15 am

If Contreras deal happens. One of Alfaro/Nola has to go. Myers and Tatis come back Abrams and Batten go (if CJ not already dealt). If Soto or Happ are Padres then (if not dealt) Ruiz probably goes down or one of the other position players are moved

If by miracle we get Soto I would think Mazara goes down before Ruiz.

LH corner OF vs. RH guy who can play CF.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 12:12 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 9:59 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 7:32 am

Never know how history translates to future performance but I wonder how much more valuable Alfaro and Cronenworth would be if they played the Home games away from PETCO in a better hitter’s environment.

Alfaro: .600 OPS (H) v .907 OPS (A) … in a world of poor hitting catchers … a better Home OPS would make him a All-Star. Should be interesting after next year when he becomes a FA and he will still be in his 20s.

Cronenworth: .550 OPS (H) v .884 OPS (A) … and he is already an All-Star. Three more years of control so good for the Padres but have to wonder how his career would be viewed nationally if he too played in a better home hitting environment.

Alfaro absolutely Loves SD...I dont see him leaving anytime soon....Petco does suppress stats more than any stadium in baseball.. I dont know if is the heavy marine air or what... but I am always leary of adding bats unless they have a history of hitting well at Petco...ie Contreras absolutely rakes at Petco..

Besides the lineups.... who goes who stays after Myers/Tatis are back..I am guessing Batten and CJ... so if we add a bat or 2.. who are the next 2...?

 

P is even more complicated when as reported everyone comes back.. and if we add a BP arm or 2.  It could get a bit chaotic for those managing the AAA/MLB 40/26 train

MONEY! Alfaro is only 29 and making just $2.7MM ... will be a FA after next season ... so in FA for his age 31 season and as a catcher good chance decline in production happens sooner than other positions. So, maybe his last chance of a good guaranteed contract. Any analytic oriented team will know his stats are depressed by PETCO and may be very interested to offer a quality contract.

Nola is already 32 but has 3 control years and is at league minimum. However, is turning into a back-up at best.

Campusano is young and cheap ... but given his use in AAA (and recent hitting slump) maybe a question of his future given his defense has always been in question

So IF adding Contreras results in moving Nola ... and Contreras is a FA after the season with no guarantee of resigning (but if he does expect an expensive long term deal) taking away money for re-signing SP and fixing the OF ... might think twice to commit prospects to get him while he is in a slump for just two months. If they re-sign Contreras plan to let Alfaro go after (maybe before) 2024 since doubt they will pay premium for two catchers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 12:24 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 11:49 am

Quote from dusty on July 23, 2022, 10:15 am

If Contreras deal happens. One of Alfaro/Nola has to go. Myers and Tatis come back Abrams and Batten go (if CJ not already dealt). If Soto or Happ are Padres then (if not dealt) Ruiz probably goes down or one of the other position players are moved

If by miracle we get Soto I would think Mazara goes down before Ruiz.

LH corner OF vs. RH guy who can play CF.

 

 

Unless Ruiz is in the deal for Soto. If not in the deal,  a tough call in a playoff push ... the upside future of Ruiz is bright but he is an untested rookie plus Mazara does not have minor league options so would be DFA and likely claimed by some playoff contender given he is minimum salary and a FA after the season.

Sort of depends a bit on whether they want to play Tatis (in some games) in CF to cover Grisham. Plus at that point the fate to Myers and Voit will be in question.

Again a lot of potential moving parts.

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 5:08 pm

Melvin came out and said it will be a 5 man rotation for the rest of the season. Gore is either in the pen or EP I guess.

Musgrove - Manaea - Darvish - Clevinger - Snell? Martinez clearly going to be used in relief and Gore in an innings management plan.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 29, 2022, 5:26 pm

Reports out that we're closing in on a 5 year extension with Musgrove for somewhere around 100m. Great news and a nice little hometown discount.

Quote from fenn68 on July 29, 2022, 5:53 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 29, 2022, 5:26 pm

Reports out that we're closing in on a 5 year extension with Musgrove for somewhere around 100m. Great news and a nice little hometown discount.

When all is said and done … I expect $132MM/6 years ($22MM AAV) … AVV similar to Gausman / Ray but and extra year for a 30 year old.

Guessing both the Padres and Musgrove want to have a long SD partnership and that 6th year would make the deal … maybe lower the AAV to $20-21MM.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 4:27 am

Looking as though the second half performance improvements from Clevinger and Snell has moved Manaea to #5 SP with his declining performance. Maybe taking some pressure of adding a SP (ahead of other upgrades).

In the opening playoffs 3 game set … currently on the road … would expect Darvish, Musgrove, and either Clevinger / Snell … depends which is hot, better AWAY from PETCO, and opponent match up. The other goes to the pen with Manaea. That is pretty good playoff set-up.