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2022 Season

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I know that none of these "models" are well-tested / reliable ... but ... I still find them interesting ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres

So FG says Padres have a 19.4% chance of winning NL West ...

The last few weeks have been very reminiscent of last years 2nd half.

Only last year the pitching was so bad the offense couldn’t make up for it and this year the offense is so bad the pitching can’t make up for it.

Let’s just pray this is a few weeks thing and not a few months thing like last year.

 

Hurry up trade deadline!

It doesn’t look like there’s going to be any offensive upgrades without a trade and sellers ain’t selling until they have too to get the most buyers involved.

I guess AJ isn’t going to bring up a bat to try and jumpstart this offense unless he strikes out via trade.

So yeah…..hurry up trade deadline……..and Nando!

 

This team is a huge disappointment of late.  The guys show no fire, no hustle, and no consistent effort.  After watching Voit stand and admire his ball off the wall the other night, I’ve had about enough.  There is no way this team wins the division or even makes the playoffs against teams that get it.

Should have gotten Buck Showalter.  Said it then, say it now.  Watch the Mets then watch us.  Night and day.

Losing breeds lack of fire no lack of fire breeds losing.

Just need a winning streak and maybe Nando back in the lineup.

Personally while we’re waiting for Tatis I’d like to see Rosario or Ruiz  brought  up to try and spark something.

 

 

What carried the Padres early this season was some of the best SP in MLB and good RP. Offense has always been an issue but won close games with pitching and defense.

Well the offense is still bad (maybe worse) but in the last 30 days the SP has really fallen off … ranked 18th in MLB (RP is still ranked high at #3). So while we justifiably complain about the offense … it is the SP we should be concerned about. Padres will not make the playoffs with the current effort out of the starters.

 

We’ve scored 12 runs in our last 6 games and we’re 1-5 in those games.

We can’t expect to only give up 1 run a game.

It’s not the pitching.

 

It is BOTH … over the past 30 days … and that is the concern. The SP in the first two months of the season had about a 3.25 ERA … over the last 30 days it has ballooned to 4.50. For a team that generates little offense and was winning close low scoring games early is going to have a major problem making up the greater than one run per game erosion of SP performance … even if they return to their level of hitting from the first two months.

To offset the erosion of SP … the offense has to improve a lot and not sure adding one big bat (or even two) is enough to prevent a lower winning percentage going forward. The wild card chase pack in not that far out and that is a real threat.

 

On the offense ... using wRC+ ... April (103 ... 8th best in MLB) ... May (82 ... 28th) ... past 30 days (109 ... 13th). The first thing is that although the Padres offense is bad ... offense in MLB must also be bad.

So, not over reacting to the very ugly losing streak ... but over reacting to the longer trend where the offense is around "average" for MLB (hard to believe). Can the Padres win with an "average" offense ... maybe with good pitching as it was in April and May. However, the SP falling precipitously to 18th and the middle of the pack makes both offense and pitching "average" ... and an average team will have a tough time winning enough games to make the playoffs and winning against above average teams.

While we all are focusing on improving the offense via trades (and that IS needed) ... shouldn't think that will solve the Padre woes. Will the SP rebound (don't expect help via trade)? Can the current roster deliver more offense to support any additions? Will Tatis and Myers be upgrades?  Can multiple current (or call-ups) actually get hot?

Half a season to go ... a lot of potential moving parts going good and bad ... that is baseball.

Padres have dropped to the #2 Wild Card slot. I like to focus on losses in assessing threats ... and in the #3 Wild Card slot PHIL has only two more losses (and has been really hot for weeks). Then there are three teams in easy striking distance of the Padres ... 3 more losses (SF and STL) and 4 more losses (MIA).

With a half a season to go ... that is a pretty tight shot group. Actually a lot could change before the trade deadline ... maybe impacting trade deadline strategy.

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