Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 3, 2022, 10:20 am

I don't think Tatis plays RF. It sounds like Myers will be back before him and even though he's struggled this year he's just under an .800 OPS for his career against lefties. They clearly don't want to play Mazara against lefties. Wil is either back to being the everyday guy or in a platoon with Mazara when he comes back imo.

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 11:05 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 3, 2022, 10:20 am

I don't think Tatis plays RF. It sounds like Myers will be back before him and even though he's struggled this year he's just under an .800 OPS for his career against lefties. They clearly don't want to play Mazara against lefties. Wil is either back to being the everyday guy or in a platoon with Mazara when he comes back imo.

Also, given Hosmer’s struggles … Myers may be seeing time at 1B or DH with Voit at 1B. Have to watch Mazara over the next two weeks … doing well so far (not great) but still a risk he falls back to his CWS/DET level.

Padres basically can’t yet lock into a plan … have to see the lay of the land after that All-Star break and then be quick to adapt and adjust with the trade deadline. Can assume … but probably be wrong (better or worse) on the impact of Tatis, Myers, Pomeranz, Suarez, Johnson, Morejon … and maybe Castillo and Ruiz. That is a lot of unknown moving parts to digest before dealing with deadline moves that, in themselves, are exercises in the unknown as players have to adapt to new environments.

I would put Tatis at SS … returning from all that off time and, most critically getting his bat up to speed, should be dropped into his most comfortable position (SS) and just left there … that is the way to treat a star asset. We should remember how that bouncing around did not help Myers’ play. 2023 may be different. Myers becomes the counter to Mazara / Hosmer as needed. However, Padres did put Tatis in the OF when he came back from injury in 2021 … so they may see it differently. Tatis will play … so if they need offense is Myers / Mazara in RF better offense than Kim / Abrams at SS … think so  and that should set Tatis at SS.

Quote from LynchMob on July 4, 2022, 7:53 am

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml

Most Likely Scenarios

		First Round Bye			Wild Card Round
Lg		Top Seed	Division Winner		Division Winner	Wild Card	Wild Card	Wild Card
NL		Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets		St. Louis Cardinals	Atlanta Braves	San Diego Padres	Milwaukee Brewers
AL		New York Yankees	Houston Astros		Minnesota Twins	Toronto Blue Jays	Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays

This B-R.com projection sees the Padres as just 41-40 the rest of the way!

Best case scenario is 96-66 ... with 63.5% chance of making playoffs (60.7 as WC, 2.8 as winner of West) ...

That 63.5% is up 5.5% after yesterday's win, but down 9.8% in the last 7 days, but up 28.1% in the last month ...

Bottom line: 1.9% chance of winning it all 🙂

And ... to me ... given that that bottom line is based upon data that leads them to say Padres will only be 41-40 in 2nd half ... if Tatis comes back and has a strong 2nd half ... it seems possible that the Padres can beat that projection ... and I'm also feeling like additions of Pomeranz and Castillo and Baez in 2nd half can really improve the bull pen ... we have reasons to keep the faith 🙂

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 4, 2022, 8:46 am

Another factor that may help the Padres is that in Sept they have something like 5 scheduled off days … that should allow them to set-up their pitching to use the most effective arms (drop an arm to the pen) and at the same time give the pen some extra breaks. Plus the everyday players will get additional rest at a point when the may be wearing down after five months.

It should be a pressure 2nd half … even if the LAD pull away … since the pursuers of wild card slots are still pretty close if you consider the YTD losses. Padres and Atlanta are tied with 34 losses (slots 1 and 2) then STL with 37 (slot 3). Then consider with half season to go SF (37 losses), PHIL (38 losses), and even MIA (40 losses) are only a hot streak from unseating STL and still within striking distance of the Padres if SD falters at all. COLO/AZ at 44 losses are next but more than number of losses the biggest impediment will be 4 teams ahead of them for a slot.

IF the Padres cannot unseat the LAD and get the bye … need to focus on the first wild card slot which would get them home field for the 3 game wild card series (against the second wild card team) and then progress to the bye team with the second best record … likely avoiding the LAD until the League Championship.

Bottom line is that the Padres need to avoid a sustained slump / keep winning since others are on their heels.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 4, 2022, 10:03 am

Also Padres have the tie breaker (Vs Braves/Brewers... ahead of Mets. SF ).. via having won or currently ahead on season series... (lost to Phillies... behind St Louis/LAD)... so we need Stlouis to win Central... as Brewers would have to win +1 games to beat us for a WC... SF /Braves would too...

2nd half we have 7 vs Nationals .. 3 vs KC.. 3 vs Detroit..  like to finish on a strong note these last 13 games before AS game...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 4, 2022, 10:23 am

For those of you that like Prospect development.  PADRES

Cj/Wilson/Batten/Azocar/Gore...Suarez (but he was an older FA move)

Padres currently have 4 rookies in their 26..and have played 2 more currently in rehab/IL that I can think of.... thats a lot for a contending club... but all *Batten just came up...have been +++ in their respective roles... only CJ needs more seasoning... but even he hasn't looked lost out there

Quote from LynchMob on July 4, 2022, 11:13 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/padres-injuries-and-roster-moves

July 3: RHP Tayler Scott selected from Triple-A El Paso; LHP Ray Kerr optioned; RHP Kyle Tyler designated for assignment
With a bullpen that's been overburdened of late, the Padres promoted Scott ahead of the series finale at Dodger Stadium. Kerr, who struggled on Saturday afternoon, was optioned to Triple-A El Paso to clear space. Tyler, meanwhile, was designated for assignment to free up a 40-man roster spot for Scott.

In 26 appearances with Triple-A El Paso, Scott posted a 3.48 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He struck out 36 hitters in 31 innings. Scott last pitched in the big leagues for Baltimore in 2019. -- AJ Cassavell

Quote from LynchMob on July 4, 2022, 11:42 am

B-R.com (above) says 2% ... 538 is saying 5% 🙂

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

... with a 15% chance of winning the division ... projecting to finish 93-69 ...

We shall see 🙂

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 4, 2022, 1:42 pm

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