Quote from BoosterSD on May 5, 2022, 8:10 am

While we have some issues to work out in many phases of the game, SD is still in 1st/2nd place in the NL West behind LAD, by one game. The biggest difference I see between the two teams is pitching. Although LAD has played 2 fewer games than SD at this point, the offenses are fairly close, with LAD scoring 4.95 runs per game, and SD plating 4.76 runs per game. While at the same time, LAD are only giving up 2.47 runs per game, and SD is giving up 3.96 runs per game. That is 1.5 more runs per game on average. And without diving into to it too much, it would appear that most of those runs are coming from the pen.

So while SD is temporarily going with a 6 man rotation, perhaps the best idea is to, once Snell comes back, is to piggyback some starting pitchers, to keep the ball out of the hands of some of the suspect RPs like Stammen, Hill, Suarez and others. I would piggyback Snell and Martinez, and Clevinger and Gore. This would keep Snell and Clevinger fresher for the playoffs, and Gore doesnt have a lot of innings per season under his belt, so cant count on him for the entire season. And I think at some point in the season, we will see a real good contribution from Weathers as well.

Then when some of the stronger RP arms are ready, like Pomeranz, then SD can look at going back to a traditional 5 man rotation and a stronger bullpen.

Quote from BoosterSD on May 5, 2022, 8:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 7:27 am

Never really expect to take this tact but can't wait for Myers and Voit to be activated ... at least they have a track record of superior performance than Thompson, Azocar, and Beaty. All three of those guys are providing zero offense.

Also, adding Mazara (doing well in AAA and legit ML history) and dropping Beaty as the LHH is beginning to make a lot of sense.

Think Abrams goes down when (if) Tatis returns since zip in AAA for middle INF. Kim is doing well enough to hold a starting SS role until then and Abrams gets only spot starts as needed. Two more months?

I agree, Mazara needs to be given a chance in SD, cant be any worse than what we are getting from Beatty. Thompson and Azocar both seem to be that typical 4A player, too good for AAA, and cant cut it in the MLs.

When it comes to Abrams, I think that SD is doing a big disservice keeping him in SD. You can tell he is over matched in the MLs at this time. He needs his time in AAA to further his development. Waiting until Tatis comes back to send him down, IMO would be counter productive do his development, he needs daily at bats so he can adjust to better pitching.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 5, 2022, 8:21 am

Has their been any update on Pierce Johnson? It seems like a lot could depend on how quickly and effectively guys come back from injury as far as our bullpen is concerned. Hopefully we get Johnson back soon. Castillo might be the next closest. Maybe Petit can get ready quickly. Baez, Morejon and Pomeranz all could be back in June. Snell coming back probably pushes Martinez to the pen before too long. If we get some of those guys back and pitching well the bullpen will look a lot better.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 9:16 am

Quote from BoosterSD on May 5, 2022, 8:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 7:27 am

Never really expect to take this tact but can't wait for Myers and Voit to be activated ... at least they have a track record of superior performance than Thompson, Azocar, and Beaty. All three of those guys are providing zero offense.

Also, adding Mazara (doing well in AAA and legit ML history) and dropping Beaty as the LHH is beginning to make a lot of sense.

Think Abrams goes down when (if) Tatis returns since zip in AAA for middle INF. Kim is doing well enough to hold a starting SS role until then and Abrams gets only spot starts as needed. Two more months?

I agree, Mazara needs to be given a chance in SD, cant be any worse than what we are getting from Beatty. Thompson and Azocar both seem to be that typical 4A player, too good for AAA, and cant cut it in the MLs.

When it comes to Abrams, I think that SD is doing a big disservice keeping him in SD. You can tell he is over matched in the MLs at this time. He needs his time in AAA to further his development. Waiting until Tatis comes back to send him down, IMO would be counter productive do his development, he needs daily at bats so he can adjust to better pitching.

Agree that Abrams should be in AAA but there is the practical matter that the Padres have nothing to back fill middle INF until Tatis returns and relying on Kim / Cronenworth / Machado as the INF everyday probably hurts the long term performance of the ML team. The other guys in AAA are not even performing in AAA.

I guess Abrams in the ML can be spun as a development challenge for him for three months and then play out the second half in the minors. He is getting playing time and hopefully learning what he needs to be a MLer.

Would guess that if in mid-season there is an issue with Tatis returning ... we may see Preller making a deal for a middle INF.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 9:29 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 5, 2022, 8:21 am

Has their been any update on Pierce Johnson? It seems like a lot could depend on how quickly and effectively guys come back from injury as far as our bullpen is concerned. Hopefully we get Johnson back soon. Castillo might be the next closest. Maybe Petit can get ready quickly. Baez, Morejon and Pomeranz all could be back in June. Snell coming back probably pushes Martinez to the pen before too long. If we get some of those guys back and pitching well the bullpen will look a lot better.

I am not expecting to see any help from Morejon, Baez, or Castillo this year (maybe late season at best) ... all had long layoffs and need to have a "controlled" recovery run. Not the timing to put them into critical roles in a playoff run.

Johnson has not been throwing as far as I can tell ... so maybe a longer IL than they suggested. Pomeranz is just an unknown and on the 60 day IL but he too his not really throwing. Adams is now on the 60 day. So hard to see any of them retuning (if they return at all) before mid-June.

Petit though is a real possibility as a seasoned ML veteran.

When they have to sit at 13 pitchers after May 29 ... and if they go with the 13 best ... and if 7 of those are currently viewed as SP ... only 6 legit RP can be retained? That will cause a logjam with the number of RP who cannot be optioned to the minors ... of course new IL candidates will appear.

These things tend to work themselves out but on paper it seems Preller will be forced to make some roster moves (trades / DFA) to clear bodies if they go with the current best pitchers.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 5, 2022, 10:55 am

I disagree. If the likes of Hill, Lamet, Stammen and Suarez are still struggling when our rehabbing guys are ready they need to come up. I'm not saying to rush anybody, but we're in win now mode. I don't want to see them wasting bullets in the minors if the major league pen is shaky.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 5, 2022, 11:36 am

Been watching Castillo closely and he is throwing very well with no apparent injury setbacks.  The only hold-up is how frequently can we count on him coming out of the pen.  If he's built up to every other day, then he's ready; if not, then we take a chance on injuring him again and losing him for a longer period of time instead of the waiting time to build him up.  For that reason, I'd say move him to El Paso and start to work him every 3rd day with a couple of every 2nd day when he hadn't thrown many pitches on that every 3rd day RP effort. In my opinion, this could be as early as mid-May, maybe by the week of 22 May.  Hill has been awful, so another lefty is very much needed.  Further, as much as Kerr struggled in the minors, it seems he almost can't be worse than Hill.  I'd monitor Kerr very closely and get him up sooner than later - we don't have to clear a 40 man spot for Kerr like we'd have to do for Castillo.  Don't think Weathers is there yet, but an encouraging outing yesterday - I'd like to see that kind of effort at least 2 more times before I would commit to him having transitioned to a "new" style of pitching.

Petit is a pro and should not need too much time to get ready - maybe by the week of 15 May.   Not quite sure what to make of Johnson - we really need him back.  Stammen and Lamet have not been good.  Lamet and Hill have options, so we can bring up Kerr and activate Johnson.  I'd put Stammen on the IL and find someone to designate when either Petit or Castillo is ready later this month.  Stammen is a competitor so I think he can figure someway to get outs until that time.  Kind of stuck with Suarez - still think he has some talent but having difficulty adapting his stuff to MLB standards - needs to listen to Niebla.  Baez could be the wild card if he continues to throw like he did his first outing - we'll know more tonight.  Not counting on Pomeranz or Adams any time soon.  Dark horses at El Paso could be Higgins or Scott - Kopps not quite ready, in my opinion.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 2:02 pm

I guess with Castillo I need to see a lot more before putting him in the discussion as an add to the pen anytime soon.

He has only pitched 4 innings in LOW A and really has done little pitching since 2018. Have to see him be effective in the upper minors and show he can pitch on consecutive days over at least a couple of months.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 2:19 pm

OK here is the starting point

SP: (6) Darvish; Musgrove; Manaea; Clevinger; Gore; Martinez

RP: (8) Rodgers; Garcia; Suarez; Stammen; Hill; Lamet; Wilson; Crismatt

Move one: Snell up …. ? Down

Move on May 29 … ? Pitcher down as the need to go to 13 pitchers

of the RP, Rogers is not going down and can’t option Garcia, Suarez, or Stammen. So if Lamet and Wilson go down for Snell and the loss of the 14th pitcher an add will force a move of a SP (Gore can be optioned) or DFA of Garcia or Suarez or Stammen (and eat their contracts) or option Hill or Crismatt. Plus that does not address the potential of Johnson returning in May and forcing a move.

Until some of the minor league RP actually show they are ML ready … and don’t see any close as yet … not holding out for help before July.