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2022 Season

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Debating the pitching is important but maybe we should be shifting our focus to the offense and the holes that don’t seem to have plugs coming soon. Checked Fangraphs and consider:

1. The collective OF ranks 30th in the ML in BA (.171) and SLG (.288), 23rd in OBP (.277), for an overall wRC+ of 74 … 24th in the league

2. The DH slot ranks 30th in BA (.130) and 30th in SLG (.148) with some help for OBP nets to 28th in wRC+ (a paltry 41).

That is non-competitive as it can get … not going to get the Padres to the playoffs no matter how good the pitching is. This will really get exposed when Machado and Hosmer cool down from the unsustainable hot starts … or worse actually slump.

Yes Myers and Voit will come back … so likely better … but enough to elevate the OF/DH to playoff quality vs elite pitching … think not.

What triggered this was hearing on the radio the rejection of trading any of the pitching (can’t have enough pitching) … while that may be true you can loose the season from no offense while “excess” pitching sits.

My hope is AJ has a deal in place for Laureano from the A’s and they’re just waiting for his suspension to lift.

Incredible fielder and at least a better hitter than what we have right now.

It seems like the A’s would have no reason to hold on to him at this point.

 

 

Laureano would be a good target (assuming Melvin likes him).

He is currently working in the A’s camp (so should be close to ML ready) and will be eligible to return on May 8.

From the Padres’ perspective he is a good hitter (not great) and a very good CF option as needed. He has 3 years control … which also translates to low cost. Given the current OF situation and the near term lack of help oozing from the minors … a reasonable target.

From Oakland’s perspective the 3 years’ control / low cost might not make them eager to move him now and rather hold until he rebuilds some value or gets a very very good offer now.

Under those circumstances … not sure who the Padres would have to give up to make OAK deal  … and what is too much.

Been thinking about this a lot. The starting pitching combined with Hosmer and Manny have been huge.

 

Beaty, Thompson, Azucar have been rough. Need more out of Grisham, Profar (offensively), Cronenworth (offensively), and Nola/Alfaro.

Getiing Myers and Voit back will be huge (they can't be as bad as they were can they?), as will actual production from Cronenworth, Grisham, and Nola...Can't see them being this bad for so much longer.

In the Bullpen, Petit needs to be here ASAP. We need Johnson back ASAP. If Pomeranz would just get healthy and/or if Morejon or Castillo can get strong and healthy that could allow us to get rid of Hill.

Lamet has been dreadful same with Stammen.

Suarez is just really frustrating right now. He needs to harness his control. He has cost this team two games...outside of those two games...he has a 1.81 ERA. Personally, I feel it could still be a lack of confidence as well as still getting used to the United States and MLB.

Getting Laureano would allow us to send Abrams down and give Profar some looks in the infield as well as the outfield.

Myers and Voit allows us to get Thompson back to the minors and Beaty as well (not sure if they both have options).

Azucar stays in the role he is being used at for now (defensive replacement and pinch runner with occasional pinch hits) until Tatis comes back.

If Baez continues to impress that is another option for the Pen.

Azucar goes down when Tatis comes back.

I like piggybacking Snell Clevinger Gore and Martinez...that would also clean up 2 bullpen spots and I could see them going that route to ease the innings of Clevinger and Gore.

 

26 Man roster by mid/end of June

C: Nola/Alfaro

1B: Hosmer/Cronenworth/Voit/Profar

2B: Cronenworth/Kim/Profar

SS: Tatis/Kim

3B: Manny/Kim

LF: Myers/Profar/Kim?

CF: Laureano/Grisham

RF: Grisham/Myers/Profar

DH: Kim/Tatis/Voit

SP: Darvish, Manaea, Musgrove

Piggybacks: Snell, Clevinger, Martinez, Gore

RP: Taylor, Garcia, Suarez, Petit, Johnson, (Final Bullpen spot) Hill/Pom/Castillo/Crismatt/Baez

Only thing I see that will make Melvin's job tough, is how will the DH be deployed and who will get the ABs? Voit and Myers' production when they return will be very key to how that all plays out. Does Tatis ease into the field when he returns considering Kim's solid defense? Do they do a carousel with the DH considering the versatility of Kim, Cronenworth, Tatis, and Profar; as well as making sure the players are fresh throughout the season?

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Considering our record and how many players we have under performing we are extremely lucky.

Also,we have the chance to be much better when these players “come around” and others return to the lineup.

Some won’t…but guys like Cronenworth and Myers in particular have a track record and their production should start to return at least close to their norms.

Beaty,Azocar,Thompson,Suarez are guys who probably are who they are.

With Suarez the exception as he “may” settle down once he gains confidence and believes he belongs.

Beaty in particular seems completely lost.

I’d rather see Rooker on our bench to be honest.

 

 

Mazara? ML experienced LHH OF who did well (not great) in TEX and hitting well in EP. Should be better than Beaty ... Thompson ... or Azocar offensively.

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2022, 9:52 am

Mazara? ML experienced LHH OF who did well (not great) in TEX and hitting well in EP. Should be better than Beaty ... Thompson ... or Azocar offensively.

From today's DFR ...

Nomar Mazara continues to make it look easy, lacing a double to bring his hitting streak to 15 games to open the season. The outfielder is slashing .340/.455/.566 in 53 at-bats since signing with the Padres in the offseason. Mazara has 629 games of MLB experience under his belt.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 6, 2022, 8:28 am

Considering our record and how many players we have under performing we are extremely lucky.

Also,we have the chance to be much better when these players “come around” and others return to the lineup.

Some won’t…but guys like Cronenworth and Myers in particular have a track record and their production should start to return at least close to their norms.

Beaty,Azocar,Thompson,Suarez are guys who probably are who they are.

With Suarez the exception as he “may” settle down once he gains confidence and believes he belongs.

Beaty in particular seems completely lost.

I’d rather see Rooker on our bench to be honest.

 

 

And with all the under performance ... Padres have the 4th best record in the NL and hold the 1st playoff slot. So, a long way to go but at least they have not given away the season in April.

With the usual disclaimers on avoiding injuries and speculating on trades ... could see the second half (post Tatis return) setting up:

C ... Nola / Alfaro

1B/DH ...Hosmer (L) / Voit

INF ... Cronenworth (L) / Tatis / Machado ... bench Kim

OF .. Profar (#) / Grisham (L) / Myers ... bench Mazara (L) / Azocar (mainly for defense)

SP (6) ... Darvish / Snell (L) / Musgrove / Manaea (L) / Clevinger / Gore (L) ... retain 6 man rotation as I expect Clevinger will be fully stretched out and not need a "piggyback" as will none of the others

RP (7) ... Rogers (L) / Suarez / Garcia / Martinez / Hill (L) / Johnson / Stammen

However, do expect some RP injuries so may see some of the other candidate show up and odds are Preller will make a deal for either OF support or RP support.

Mazara would require a 40 man roster move.

He also hasn’t been great at the ML level.

But sure…..at this point anyone but Beaty.

 

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