Quote from Randy Manese on December 24, 2020, 10:52 pm

I'd make the trade proposed above.  Morejon has great stuff - maybe equal to Gore and some offerings that are even better - HOWEVER, he appears to be a TJ candidate in waiting.  He's never pitched over 65 innings in his career and has a lot of shoulder and tired arm issues.  I'm letting the buyer (Cubs) take those chances and if Morejon turns out to be another Fried in 3 or 4 years, then that's okay because we've moved on from both him and Darvish by then and the next wave of pitching talent will have arrived.

Lawson flashes talent but, like Morejon, has had trouble staying healthy.  Could be a mid-rotation starter at best but more likely a RP.  Worth a gamble because of his potential.

Weathers would be the hardest to give up because I think we've just scratched the surface of what he could become.  Finally committed to one sport, he was not in the best baseball shape earlier in his career but appeared to be in much better (but still a ways from top shape) in his one appearance in 2020.  Give him some time and experience and he could rise to a solid #2 in a lot of rotations with his mix of pitches and baseball background.

Yes, Padres could win with Darvish under those circumstances IF they sign a Rosenthal or Yates to further solidify the bullpen.  Cubs may go for that kind of trade because if they guessed wrong on Darvish, the market for an older pitcher with 37M left in his last two years is probably really small.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 25, 2020, 4:00 am

I'd really like to see the players WE draft/ sign, that come up through OUR system, get elevated to SAN DIEGO, and produce!

Whilst I realize using prospects is integral to making trades for proven veterans to fill in the gaps, being a consistent contender( see: Duds, LA) relies on you developing and KEEPING your own guys because of cost and control( see: Duds, LA)

If we continue to trade 3 or 4 for 1, we'll be right back where we started from. At some point, the Gore's, Patino's, Weathers, Abrams, Campusano's will have to be OUR productive MLB players in SAN DIEGO.

As sexy a pick up Darvish would be, I really want to see OUR players produce in SD.

Quote from hoffy51 on December 25, 2020, 4:30 am

Amen. That's what successful franchises do. I want to win a championship, not chase a wild card birth just because one of our pitchers goes down. Uh!

Quote from Randy Manese on December 25, 2020, 9:06 am

Even the KBO is overpaying for pitchers!  I'd stay as far away from the market as I can right now and let things cool down.   We have the goods - let the market come to us.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 25, 2020, 10:47 am

It looks like AJ is waiting to see what happens with our bids for Arihara and/or Sugano before dealing any prospects.

I think we mostly all agree this is the right move.

But do we really want to “settle” for Arihara if we have a choice between the two?

I don’t know that we have that choice.....but Sugano is the guy right?

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2020, 11:47 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 25, 2020, 10:47 am

It looks like AJ is waiting to see what happens with our bids for Arihara and/or Sugano before dealing any prospects.

I think we mostly all agree this is the right move.

But do we really want to “settle” for Arihara if we have a choice between the two?

I don’t know that we have that choice.....but Sugano is the guy right?

 

Without a real scouting report (by anyone I trust) ... can’t really make the call but although Sugano his the rep (now 31) Arihara (at 28) may actually still work .... and may be more affordable leaving money for other adds (e.g. RP, bench).

Report is that Padres are in it for Arihara with Boston and Texas ... and the window closes tomorrow ... if the money offer is comparable Padres should have the advantage of being the contender on the West Coast. No idea what kind of contract is in play but if only 3 teams are bidding ... probably not all that daunting of a commitment.

Another week+ to settle on Sugano but Padres should have a pretty good idea by now how the negotiations are going and probably price tag ... if too rich could just walk away. Again, totally in the dark on the size of a contract.

We are talking about Preller ... and he has walked away for some other players moving over from Japan (so not going to chase) BUT, if the price is right for the projected skills set, would not be surprised to see him try to sign BOTH.

Would allow for the prospects to begin in the minors for development (and not have to deal any), provide some insurance against Lamet (injury) and Paddack (not returning to 2019 form). Plus, if really confident, would allow for a trade of Davies (and his $8-9MM salary and a FA after the season). In a SP starved league, there would be buyers of Davies.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2020, 11:56 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 25, 2020, 9:06 am

Even the KBO is overpaying for pitchers!  I'd stay as far away from the market as I can right now and let things cool down.   We have the goods - let the market come to us.

FA SP costs are surprising me ... that probably translates into the assets needed to trade for a SP is getter greater by the hour. Not good as a buyer.

However, the other side of the coin is that the Padres have a load of high quality SP prospects ... and their value should be rocketing upward no matter how we see them.

The “elite” prospects aside .... would “hold” on them ... the trade value of the next tier like Lucchesi and Baez may be higher that I had considered ... maybe not for a pitcher but maybe for a quality position player (or prospect).

Quote from Randy Manese on December 25, 2020, 7:43 pm

Breaking news has Arihara to Rangers on a two year deal worth 6-7M.  Not sure if that is 6-7M per season or the total contract.  If per season, although Padres were mentioned as one of three interested teams (Red Sox was the other), I don't they were serious about paying him that kind of money.  If total contract, then it was worth a flyer and Arihara couldn't wait any longer for the Padres to commit.  Red Sox also would have been in on the lower package amount but probably not 6-7M per year, even though they were as desperate for pitching as Rangers.  Padres not desperate and should wait to see how serious Cincinnati is about Castillo (should already be a Padre!) and to a lesser extent Gray.  Prospect price probably still too high.

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2020, 6:43 am

Sounds to me that the total contract was $6-7MM based on the various reports .... I was surprised it was only for two years for a 28 year old FA.

Maybe the scouting reports were not as compelling has some would have hoped.