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2021 vs 2020 FA SP Market
#71 · January 2, 2021, 2:21 pm
I don't believe any 2 GM's working out the details of a trade is out to fleece the other - they are looking for value for value, whether it is immediate value or longer term value. In the above analysis, what the Padres "win" is going to be much more in the short term than the Rays win. These are two teams with the same objective, i.e. to win, but the Rays are under much tighter financial constraints than the Padres and are doing what the Padres did for many years, selling out potential stars for longer term viability. Rays are very good at it; Padres were so-so. Snell is still maturing into an extremely good pitcher and if he avoids injury, he'll probably be among the top 10 pitchers in all of baseball.
Our time is now so everyone enjoy what we have and don't have buyer's remorse. I want to be in every game and see exciting competitive baseball every day whether I'm at PETCO or watching on TV. I want the MLB network to be on fire discussing how great the Padres are after so many years of us being a doormat. I'm not worried about filling out the rest of the 26 man roster because Padres management is apparently as excited as we fans should be. Can't wait for 2021 season to start!
#72 · January 2, 2021, 3:03 pm
Double negative ... I don't dislike the trade (which is not the same as I like the trade).
Not all that upset about what the Padres gave up in an effort to win a pennant. The have enough other quality prospects to justify losing a few.
My focus is purely on what they got in Snell. I hear all the national hype stemming for his incredible Cy Young campaign in 2018 ... a full season with a sub-2.00 ERA is remarkable. Take that season out and not so impressive and has not shown the ability to go high inning counts. Until I see him producing at an upper rotation level ... let's just say skeptical.
However, the Darvish deal makes the Snell deal better since Darvish (in my mind) is the TOR arm the Padres needed to win big ... having Snell setting lower in the pecking order is valuable and think the Padres can weather any downs Snell may endure. Snell has the "stuff" and mindset so not out of the question he performs at a high level ... but more of a risk play. My initial worry was the Padres would rely on Snell as the #1 answer to winning.
#73 · January 2, 2021, 3:41 pm
Now imagine Snell as #2....Lamet as #3.....Clevinger as #4......Gore as #5!
Is it 2022 yet?
#74 · January 3, 2021, 11:50 am
I don't think the Darvish trade & it's implications throughout MLB have been talked about enough.
His contract is 3/62 MM (20.66 MM AAV) as: 23 / 20 / 19 MM.
The Cubs are paying 3 MM all towards 1st year. So now 3/59 (19.66 MM AAV) as: 20 / 20 / 19 MM.
BUT Padres were already committed to paying Davies his 3rd year of Arb $ off a good season. Let's estimate 9 MM.
This makes the NET cost to upgrade from 1 year of Davies to 3 years of Darvish: 3/50 (16.66 MM AAV) as: 11 / 20 / 19 MM.
But it's the spectacularly low prospect cost that is the most jaw dropping. The Snell trade had just happened. Darvish comes with the same years of control, AND was better in 2nd 1/2 2019 AND 2020 then Snell. Yes, he's much older & more expensive overall, so going to cost less in trade... but the difference is stunning. I have Patino, Wilcox, & Hunt ranked # 3, 9, & 11 in a pre-all trades Padres system with Ha-Seong Kim inserted at #5. I have Caissie, Preciado, Mena, & Santana ranked #19, 21, 22, & 26 (I include more prospects, b/c don't graduate guys based on MLB service time). Even if you dispute my rankings, it's near inarguable that any one of the Darvish prospects is even close to being as good right now as any one of the Snell prospects. Even Mejia! I would choose Mejia (for the Padres, but really any MLB team) in a split second over any of the 4 prospects b/c he is STILL a young, cheap, SH, bat first, C, with an option, obvious flexible DH possibility (far > offensive upside than Caratini (S) or Cronenworth (L) - trouble with LHP & power limitations).
The 2 most striking things are: 1) That the Cubs couldn't extract ONE better prospect closer to MLB (Marcano for example), and the biggie: 2) That no other team came over the top of the Padres on this trade. In the trade's aftermath, it blatantly looks like Hoyer was given a primary directive to dump salary, with competitive return secondary. Davies does backfill nicely, may be OK 2021, but then...
The opportunity to make this trade fell to the Padres due to the financial hit teams are taking due to Covid, and the Pads & Cubs being at opposite ends of their "contending MLB teams" windows. Even if Darvish regresses or gets injured the only significant hit is $. Loss of those prospects doesn't directly impact MLB team for 4 years+.
#75 · January 7, 2021, 6:50 pm
I'm glad Sugano is headed back to Japan if not a Padre, which was pretty obvious after Darvish/Snell trades. One of the best remaining SP's now off market without helping any MLB team, likely pushing up prices for others, etc etc.
#76 · January 8, 2021, 4:29 pm
Apparently Padres (& Toronto) DID formally offer a contract to Sugano.
I'm guessing in Pads case, given the big Snell & Darvish payroll additions, that it was structured with the 1st year the lowest (backloaded). Since Sugano can opt out every year going forward, $$ likely better by millions in 2021 to stay in Japan, wait for Covid vaccine rollout, new MLB collective bargaining agreement, and hopefully business as usual with more teams ramping up payroll heading into 2022.
Do think him playing his career in Tokyo excludes half the teams in MLB: He's not going to Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cleveland...
Major coastal city or maybe Chicago... Toronto's no Tokyo, but I think it's fair to say more "cosmopolitan" than San Diego.