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2021 vs 2020 FA SP Market
#1 · December 15, 2020, 9:41 am
This year vs. Last year’s FA SP markets
I believe some very bad ideas re SP are arising from combo of: our first taste of the playoffs in 14 years, Clevinger’s surgery, residual memory of last year’s FA SP market, and the belief that because Preller was a trading madman at deadline he will continue to trade in offseason.
But The 2021 vs 2020 markets for FA SP are extremely different. Here’s an overview. The salaries/AAV for 2021 are MLBTR estimates and so far have been extremely low on the early guys that have signed (not listed b/c off the market)… but are all short deals that are possibly affected by the possibility 2021 (& 22?) aren’t full 162 game seasons.
$/AAV range 2021 2020
35 MM Bauer Cole, Strasburg
17-24 MM NONE Wheeler, Ryu, Keuchel, Bumgarner, Hamels-1, Kluber-TR
Q.O. accept Stroman, Gausman Odorizzi
14 – 17 MM NONE NONE
10+ - 14 MM Tanaka, Odorizzi, Kluber, Sugano NONE
Trade candidates? Snell, Gray, Carrasco NONE?
8-10 MM Paxton, Quintana, Richards, T. Walker Pineda, Gibson, Porcello, Teheran
4-6 MM “Grandpas”: Lester, Happ, Hamels ?
4-6 MM “# 5 SP": Porcello, Archer, DeSclafini ?
Trade candidates? Musgrove, Velasquez ?
The glaring difference is the lack of a 17-25 MM level in 2021, but how many SP’s are available in the (8) – 10 – 14 MM range this year, vs. None last year. When you look at career stats, these 2 points are even more glaringly obvious:
- Someone is going to wildly overpay for Bauer, whose career WHIP & ERA are worse than the 3 main trade candidates.
- Snell, Gray, or Carrasco on 2-3 year contracts in the 13 MM AAV range would have been fantastic alternatives to “the market” LAST year with literally no SP’s in that price point available. But THIS year with so many FA alternatives, they simply aren’t good value propositions as Trade candidates. Even if all 3 are better than all 8 guys in the 8-14 MM projected AAV range, you would have to give up a massive amount in trade just to get that performance “difference”; not saving any $$ vs the alternatives, which makes it REALLY hard to come out ahead.
#2 · December 15, 2020, 9:51 am
P Age GP IP WHIP ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 MLBTR Est Yrs/$
BAUER 30 205 1,190 1.27 3.90 1.1 3.4 9.7 4/128 = 32 MM AAV
Bauer 2020 11 73 0.80 1.73 1.1 2.1 12.3
Snell (L) 28 108 556 1.24 3.24 1.0 3.8 10.5 3/ 39 MM = 13 MM AAV
Carrasco 33 242 1,242 1.20 3.77 1.1 2.3 9.5 2/27 or 3/38 = 13 MM AAV
Gray 31 197 1,132 1.22 3.54 0.9 3.2 8.5 2/20 or 3/32 = 10-11 MM AAV
Sugano (Japan) 31 197 1,362 1.04 2.34 0.6 1.8 8.0 “2-4 / 18 – 56 MM” = 9 – 14 AAV + post
Sugano -25% MLB 1.30 2.93 0.8 2.3 6.0
Tanaka 32 174 1,054 1.13 3.74 1.4 1.8 8.5 3 / 39 MM = 13 MM AAV
Odorizzi 30 195 1,042 1.24 3.92 1.2 3.1 8.6 3 / 39 MM = 13 MM AAV
Quintana (L) 31 254 1,495 1.27 3.73 0.9 2.5 7.9 2 / 18 MM = 9 MM AAV
Paxton (L) 32 136 753 1.21 3.58 1.0 2.7 9.9 1 / 10 MM AAV
Richards 32 187 804 1.26 3.62 0.8 3.3 7.9 2 / 16 MM = 8 MM AAV
Walker 28 108 581 1.25 3.84 1.2 2.8 8.2 2/ 16 MM = 8 MM AAV
Kluber 34 209 1,342 1.09 3.16 0.9 2.0 9.8 1 / 12 MM AAV
Lester (L) 37 1 / 5 MM (got 10 MM buyout)
Happ 38 1 / 6 MM
Hamels 37 1 / 4 MM
Porcello 32 355 2,096 1.32 4.40 1.1 2.1 6.7 1 / 5 MM
Archer 32 212 1,235 1.25 3.86 1.1 3.1 9.8 1 / 4 MM
DeSclafini 31 125 656 1.29 4.29 1.3 2.5 8.0 1 / 4 MM
Arihara (Japan) 28 140 882 1.20 3.65 0.9 2.0 6.8
Arihara -25% MLB 1.50 4.56 1.1 2.5 5.1
Musgrove TR 28 108 496 1.23 4.33 1.2 2.2 8.4 2 / 3.3 -4.5 MM (A-2) +A-3 = 6 MM AAV
Velasquez TR 28 131 556 1.38 4.72 1.4 3.5 9.9 1 / 4-5 MM (A-3)
Lucchesi 27 59 299 1.28 4.21 1.4 3.0 9.3 600K then Arb
#3 · December 15, 2020, 10:34 am
Maybe because it is 2020 ... maybe because of the Padres run last season ... maybe because of the uncertainty of a 2021 season structure ... maybe because of the nearness of the SP prospects ... but just not excited about any of the FA SP (or trade targets) at the prices suggested.
I am just ready to go with the kids and see what happens.
The only FA that to me is interesting to me at the right price is Sugano ... probably because he is the unknown.
#4 · December 15, 2020, 10:40 am
Honestly, the more I think about it the less in a panic I am to get another "quality" SP signed. If there could be a "glut" of these medium range pitchers, then if I were a pitcher with any confidence in myself why wouldn't I want to play for San Diego even if the money, in the short run, may be a tad less?
PETCO still considered a pitchers park in great weather. Strong infield defense and up the middle defense. A potentially potent lineup for run support. Historically, a very good bullpen. A team on the rise with even more waves of talent coming.
I believe in Morejon, Gore, Patino and Weathers as potentially more than #3 starters and if you can get a healthy Lamet and Clevinger on board for several more years, the SP looks solid even if Paddack and Lucchesi don't perform like we think they are capable of performing. So, let's see what happens and don't be surprised when one of these guys we didn't think we'd get drops into our laps. .
#5 · December 15, 2020, 11:01 am
I feel the Padres have to sign 1 of the 8 FA SP's projected @ "8 - 14" MM AAV. I would prefer 2-3 year contract over 1 year deal; ideal would be 2 + club option. My 2 favorites are Sugano & Tanaka whose HR's would drop going from NYY to SD. But a groundball P might be a better fit. My 2 least favorites are probably Richards (just SO much time missed & command issues) & Walker (too little upside).
Ideally, I'd add a 2nd SP from the "Grandpa" / 5th SP group too. That $ would be tough to fit with other club needs, but I think ways to do it. Everyone focused on Clevinger, but we were already down a FA SP: Garrett Richards. DeSclafini = Lucchesi & proves Joey is "worth" 4 MM. Arihara may be too fringy for MLB. Others? Know everyone will say Hamels.
BUT assuming we sign a FA, I would explore a trade for Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove. He IS a "value" trade in the market, b/c 2 years control at only Est 6 MM AAV ; 1 year less control (Cheaper in Trade) but 25 MM less $$ obligated over 3 years vs Snell, Gray, Carrasco ("More" in trade?). Meh stats in career, but utterly dominant last Sept. More likely Pittsburgh holds him till the deadline, but Pittsburgh an obvious ideal landing spot for both Lucchesi & Guerra. Would take more than that, almost certainly a top 100 SP Patino or Morejon? If we have already signed a FA SP, I think I would do this trade; Musgrove flashed as a #1-2 now in Sept.
But if can't get Musgrove, and "just" sign a 2nd FA SP, that would "unlock" Lucchesi to be traded now while his value is highest. Might have to do the "+ Stammen" trade to clear Stammen's $$. Either way, Joey gets traded, but not until the 2nd SP of the offseason is onboard.
#6 · December 15, 2020, 11:13 am
Fenn & Randy, Just think it's not realistic being down 2 SP's from last season, and with our ace having a questionable elbow that he throws WAY too many Sliders with, AND no Minors season in 2020 to build up / develop those young arms. Becomes a protection/health issue for all of the SP's.
Need to sign AT LEAST 1 FA. But pointless to trade away our SP assets for a 3 year control guy at the same price point as those FA's.
We were all ecstatic to sign Garrett Richards 2 years ago for essentially 1 / 15 MM+ a year away & 4 months into his TJ recovery.
IF the AAV's really come in this "low" (big IF, so far the $$ has been crazy), there is value here relative to THAT!
Also, it's becoming pretty obvious to me the vast majority of whatever $ we have to work with is going to go into P. Team is too good to stand pat & "do nothing". Just shouldn't foreclose the future chasing Bauer or Snell for 2021.
#7 · December 15, 2020, 2:18 pm
Didn't say we shouldn't sign a FA SP or even two for 2021 and beyond, but rather as the weeks go by I think San Diego will become a landing spot of choice such that many alternatives and options will open themselves to us. Basically, we don't have to set the tone in the SP market but let the market come to us. I wouldn't be surprised if Preller already has 4-5 of these guys on the "we'll call you back list" when the Padres are ready to make a move, particularly, if they can't get to their targets because of budget or sacrificing too many good prospects.
There were about 60 FA starting pitchers that were being tracked when FA period opened and probably during ST, since each of the other 29 teams has about 10 SP on the 40 man competing for spots, there will be other SP without minor league options or current SP who are bypassed by up and coming prospects to the degree that clubs are willing to let some of these guys go, thereby adding to the pool of SP. Tweak Paddack back to his 2019 season and Lucchesi to his 2018 season and we look like the 2020 Chicago White Sox, not a bad competitive team and probably enough for a shot at another playoff spot.
My thought is get Tatis Jr. extended and sign Rosenthal - that would make my off-season. All the rest will happen in time.
#8 · December 15, 2020, 2:41 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 15, 2020, 11:13 amFenn & Randy, Just think it's not realistic being down 2 SP's from last season, and with our ace having a questionable elbow that he throws WAY too many Sliders with, AND no Minors season in 2020 to build up / develop those young arms. Becomes a protection/health issue for all of the SP's.
Need to sign AT LEAST 1 FA. But pointless to trade away our SP assets for a 3 year control guy at the same price point as those FA's.
We were all ecstatic to sign Garrett Richards 2 years ago for essentially 1 / 15 MM+ a year away & 4 months into his TJ recovery.
IF the AAV's really come in this "low" (big IF, so far the $$ has been crazy), there is value here relative to THAT!
Also, it's becoming pretty obvious to me the vast majority of whatever $ we have to work with is going to go into P. Team is too good to stand pat & "do nothing". Just shouldn't foreclose the future chasing Bauer or Snell for 2021.
For the record I was not only “not ecstatic” about signing Richard I thought it was a bad idea.
The idea of signing an injured pitcher does nothing for me at any cost.
I’m not really all that happy with signing Clevinger to a two year deal.
We need to win a World Series in the next 2-4 seasons.
No room for injured pitchers iMO.
#9 · December 15, 2020, 3:23 pm
To be clear would not trade for any of the SP being toss around at what appears to be the asking prices ... not for 2-3 years control at their pay. Way too much uncertainty surround the 2021-22 seasons based on actually playing games and what I still perceive as potential weaknesses in the line-up in those two years that one good SP cannot cover. IF a trade is in the future with premium prospects ... might have to focus on DH and LF in 2022 since zip in the system that early. Not wasting trade chips.
As for a FA .... would not “chase” one of the more hyped candidates ... don’t really think they are that compelling for the expected price but WOULD sign a healthy, reliable, innings eater at a bargain price (can debate what that is) probably on a 1 year, incentive laden deal. Yeh, maybe two if they were the right two at the right price. The kids are just too close to burden the roster with multi year deals and unnecessary salaries.
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#10 · December 15, 2020, 3:29 pm
Money is always an issue ... cash flow money. Given that Preller has made it clear that getting a long term extension with Tatis is a priority this winter (probably near the end of winter) ... that type of deal usually comes with an upfront bonus that is substantial. IF that bonus is payable at signing ... that may cut into the cash available for FA signings.
So, guessing a Tatis extension coupled with a “good” FA SP and maybe second tier options for the pen / bench might be the outcome.