Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 1:13 pm

Lucchesi is a quandry.   Limited upside, but high current (trade) value due to minimum salary & MLB experience throwing 140 IP.

In other words, the time to trade him is now, but with Clevinger out, we "can't" until more reliable MLB IP is found.

My idea that need to add a 2nd FA (or trade) SP to possibly trade Lucchesi still seems right, but the idea of trading Joey with Stammen to eliminate Stammen's 4-5 MM salary making less sense in my mind if the 1 yr FA sign like a Porcello is 4-5 MM... just spinning wheels?

So poll time:   What should Padres do with Joey?  1)  Keep him, 2) Trade him "standalone" for best prospect (or MLB player) available -- but no $$ savings, OR 3) Trade him with Stammen to unload Stammen's 4 MM+ salary (to spend that $ elsewhere) & get a lesser prospect back.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 1:28 pm

Probably SP signings later. Good chance a lot of GMs don’t really see much differential in the options given asking prices / risks.

Going with MLBTR predictions only really two left in the “better” category: #10 Tanaka and #11 Odorizzi  at $39MM/3 years. Then a pretty bid drop to #19 Quintana ($18MM/2 years), #22 Paxton ($10MM / 1 year), and Walker ($16MM / 2 years) .... all with serious performance / injury concerns. #24 is Richards.

So, maybe very willing to wait it out ... let someone sign elsewhere since not much differential in their minds ... and get the 2nd / 3rd option at a much better price as the panic trying to get a home.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 2:03 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 1:13 pm

Lucchesi is a quandry.   Limited upside, but high current (trade) value due to minimum salary & MLB experience throwing 140 IP.

In other words, the time to trade him is now, but with Clevinger out, we "can't" until more reliable MLB IP is found.

My idea that need to add a 2nd FA (or trade) SP to possibly trade Lucchesi still seems right, but the idea of trading Joey with Stammen to eliminate Stammen's 4-5 MM salary making less sense in my mind if the 1 yr FA sign like a Porcello is 4-5 MM... just spinning wheels?

So poll time:   What should Padres do with Joey?  1)  Keep him, 2) Trade him "standalone" for best prospect (or MLB player) available -- but no $$ savings, OR 3) Trade him with Stammen to unload Stammen's 4 MM+ salary (to spend that $ elsewhere) & get a lesser prospect back.

Just from a practical standpoint, would “hold” until after securing alternatives ... no guarantee being able (afford) to sign the extra SP needed even with Lucchesi in the mix and a second to replace Lucchesi. Add that we optimistically see Lamet returning BUT a question lingers until he is actually throwing in ST.

Lucchesi probably has more value to the Padres in 2021 than anyone they could get in a deal ... and not sure need a prospect (will not be elite) that does not arrive for years if want to contend now.

Not sure he is worth enough to another team to warrant taking Stammen’s contract ... if they did expect nothing in return. A ton of RP are FA and in the world of RP ups and downs ... probably dumpster dive for a different version of Stammen.

Hard to argue the value to the Padres of Lucchesi after wanting to move him before last season ... but every year is different as to needs ... and somehow Lucchesi looks like a useful piece for this edition of the Padres ... cheap, controllable, healthy, innings eater by making all his starts, and a decent 4.10ish ERA (decent these days). Not really sure the FA market has much to top that.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 2:55 pm

OK, I really am misreading this SP FA market.

DeScalfini just signed a $6MM/1 year deal at age 31 after a truly ugly 2020 and a so-so career with a 4.29 ERA. My book has that as an extreme over pay.

At his career level, DeScalfini IS Lucchesi but older with less control at $5.4MM more pay.

If that (along with the questionable Smyly signing) is the FA SP market ... Padres are going to be hard pressed (or ill advised) to sign anyone of note. Lucchesi  becomes more valuable staying put. I would even gamble one (or some combo) of the kids can deliver DiScalfini’s numbers but at league minimum and with a future.

More logic to go big (multi-year) on Sugano (if Preller likes him) and forget the high cost veteran FA ... then go with Lucchesi and the kids for the 5th slot.

Looks as though all the veteran FA SP are over pay for questionable production ... why not over pay for (if you have to) for upside or just not pay and go with building the future.

Getting really down on the SP FA market ... talent / price.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 3:34 pm

DeScalfini just signed a $6MM/1 year deal at age 31 after a truly ugly 2020 and a so-so career with a 4.29 ERA. My book has that as an extreme over pay.

At his career level, DeScalfini IS Lucchesi but older with less control at $5.4MM more pay.

Exactly right.  Every FA SP has been 33-50-100% > MLBTR projection... hope Bauer doesn't double his 32 MM AAV estimate!  But seriously, the problem is Sugano's market might just run away since there's nothing "between" him & Bauer.   In this market, he probably benefits from his deadline.  Have to determine what he's "worth" & stick to your guns, not chase market.

Further fuel for my Lake Bachar / Rule 5 argument.  A 6 year older SP off a BAD 2020 MLB season is worth 60 times the 100K it would have taken to just look at Bachar for minimum?  I just don't get teams' rationale.  "Experienced MLB SP" sure has a huge premium.

Anyone doubt now that we could get something for  Stammen (he's worth SOME, I'd say half, of his contract) + Lucchesi??

Maybe Preller should just sign 2 Closers & go with 4 SP's and a 9-10 man bullpen.  Fenn & Mr. P I'm (half) joking...

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 3:57 pm

About the only thing I can think of why some team did not take a flyer on Bachar is that they may already think they have their version of him in play without the restrictions of a Rule 5. Or they have seen him pitch and were not impressed, I guess.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2020, 2:28 pm

OK, time for an "upgraded" rumor. Padres are rumored to be a suitor for Yu Darvish. At first held little credence in my mind. However, some recent comments suggest that this is a rumor based on fact ... interest by the Padres.

He is that TOR arm the Padres seek ... Preller was in Texas when Darvish was signed the first time ... CUBS are serious in reducing payroll and refocusing on the future.

He has 3 years remaining on his contract (Padres want longer control to make a move) ... but he is expensive ($23MM - $20MM - $19MM) and might really limit any other moves ... and given his Cy Young level of performance  last season will require some significant trade chips (maybe this contract level might lower the prospect return required if the Padres take the full monty). Remember the Padres have a number of elite prospects and if they take the full contract could outbid most other teams that may not want the contract or don't have the quality of prospects.

The downside is that he is 34 (so 3 years could be a stretch) and in 2019 was "very good" but not ace material with a 3.98 ERA.

Interesting option ... would the Padres win with Darvish and the rest of the current roster? What would the Padres have to give (assuming they take the entire contract and the Cubs don't take an offsetting contract)?

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2020, 2:53 pm

addendum: the opinion on Darvish's current contract is that is right about at "fair market value" if he were a FA. So, neither a "bad contract" nor a "team friendly contact". That should have some impact on sizing the trade chips required to get him ... but probably will not have to overpay (that is a judgement call) if moving the contact is a motivator for the CUBS.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2020, 10:18 am

MLBTR have FA SP Tanaka and Odorizzi signing at $39MM/3 years. Probably will come in WAY over that given the early SP signings both in AAV and maybe a 4th year. The guesses on Sugano are all over the board since "some" suggest the is the best option after Bauer. Their "advantage" is they come of the money only ... don't have to give up prospects. So, a question how much this group compares with the trade target.

Player .... age ... innings (2019-20) ... ERA ... WAR .... control yrs ... contract (cash per Sportac incl options)

Castillo ... 28 ... 261 ... 3.35 ... 6.4 ... 3 years ($4.4MM - arb 2 - arb 3 ... probably ends up about $25MM)

Gray ........ 31 ... 231 ... 3.07 ... 6.0 ... 3 years ($10.0 - 10.2 - 12.0 = $32.2MM)

Darvish ....34 ... 255 ... 3.39 ... 5.6 ... 3 years ($22.0 - 19.0 - 18.0 = $61MM)

Odorizzi .. 30 ... 172 ... 3.75 ... 4.3 ... FA TBD

Tanaka .... 32 ... 227 ... 4.28 ... 4.0 ... FA TBD

Snell ....... 28 ...  157 ... 3.96 ... 3.3 ... 3 years ($10.5 - 12.5 - 16.0 = $39MM)

Carrasco .. 33 .. 133 ... 3.92 .... 2.6 ... 3 years ($12.0 - 12.0 - 14.0 = $38MM)

Balance of innings ... performance ... contract ... price in prospects to add that contract ... hard call.

Castillo may be the best performance option .. and low cost ... result a HUGE trade package required. Darvish about the same performance but a very big contract and if a team takes the contract will not have to give up all that high ceiling in prospects. To any team is is situational (might not have the quality prospects ... might not have the free cash). For the Padres, are the top prospects more valuable in the long run than the short term cash?

Do those options maybe gambling on Sugano even more appealing (depending on the scouting) with a higher ceiling and comparable contract and not giving up prospects?