Quote from MrPadre19 on December 15, 2020, 5:06 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2020, 3:37 pm

Add me to the side that was not for signing Richards who had not had a good season since around 2015 due to health ... not on a two year deal for that amount of money.

Not fond of the Clevinger signing but at least for less money and he is (was) a better pitcher immediately before the signing. More faith in Clevinger producing in the second year than I had in Richards. Plus having given up those trade asset to get him ... need to push to get value ... even if something via a trade deadline move in 2022.

The 90 loss Padres may have needed to sign injury rebound candidates but the playoff Padres don’t (shouldn’t).

This was what I was trying to say.

We need to win now....it’s no longer “wait  two more years”.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 15, 2020, 10:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2020, 3:37 pm

Add me to the side that was not for signing Richards who had not had a good season since around 2015 due to health ... not on a two year deal for that amount of money.

Not fond of the Clevinger signing but at least for less money and he is (was) a better pitcher immediately before the signing. More faith in Clevinger producing in the second year than I had in Richards. Plus having given up those trade asset to get him ... need to push to get value ... even if something via a trade deadline move in 2022.

The 90 loss Padres may have needed to sign injury rebound candidates but the playoff Padres don’t (shouldn’t).

I'll take you guys at your word on Garrett Richards.  I was for it.  We were competing with LAD for him, and in 2 year ago $ (or really even last year's SP $) it wasn't insane.  Had the benefit of being a "15 MM" guy in a year where we were only paying him 8.5 MM.  I thought it was a smart shift of $.  I did think the incentives on top of the total salary was too much; but those should have been for staying healthy a full season.  I just remember speculative "he could be at top of our rotation" talk, and he (not Davies) was "clearly 1 of the top 3" SP at end of camp.

I don't regret the Clevinger trade for a second, even though it's gone South.  At least not spending big $ on an injured TOR SP.  As far as the contract, that's just a negotiation of his 2 arb years; no big deal.  Shifts $ from 2021 into 2022 which is beneficial to both sides.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 15, 2020, 10:32 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2020, 3:29 pm

Money is always an issue ... cash flow money. Given that Preller has made it clear that getting a long term extension with Tatis is a priority this winter (probably near the end of winter) ... that type of deal usually comes with an upfront bonus that is substantial. IF that bonus is payable at signing ... that may cut into the cash available for FA signings.

So, guessing a Tatis extension coupled with a “good” FA SP and maybe second tier options for the pen / bench might be the outcome.

I'd be extremely surprised if Tatis gets anything more than 1 MM this year in signing bonus... maybe even total.

Hosmer "only" got 5 MM on a 5/105 or 8/144 deal.  Manny "just" got 20 of his 30 MM total the 1st year upfront as S.B.  Myers S.B. was specifically to help make early years of deal extremely affordable.

Guys extending as early as Tatis would be aren't going to get a huge bonus, particularly day 1, particularly THIS offseason ( "true" FA James McCann only got 600K on 4/40 MM).  Timing or presence of S.B. at all not a deal killer in Tatis' situation; it's all about the security of the total guarantee.

My guess is 1 MM salary + 1 MM bonus in 2021 if he's extended.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 5:56 am

Probably right ... and given the cash issue in MLB minimizing any bonus (offsetting that with higher extension years) would be the team’s goal.

Acuna extended with only $1MM in first year and NO bonus. On the other hand, Myers extended at $2MM base and $15MM bonus ($17MM cash in year one). A lot of range ... but like Tatis ... neither were FA, so the “control” years would be lower cost and the big increase starts with the FA buyout years. Hosmer and Machado were FA so harder to translate to a Tatis deal.

Still, the point is that any amount over the league minimum that Tatis would get as a non-arbitration player (<$600) in 2021 reduces the money for FA signings. If the available money is $10-15MM ... reducing that even by a $1-5MM cuts into the options to sign multiple FA ... especially if they want SP (maybe two), RP, and adding to the bench.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 7:32 am

Heard some more very positive scouting reports on Sugano and the Padres being in the mix to sign him. (No idea on what he will sign for). Basically, a strong belief he will be effective in the ML and, at worst, a very competent #3 on a good pitching staff .... maybe  better. Maybe the best FA option after Bauer.

I could see the Padres with Lamet, Davies (Clevinger), Sugano as the top 3 for the next two seasons with Paddack and the kids fighting it out for the last two slots (or set-up to cover a the odds of either (or both) Lamet and Clevinger not being healthy for 2022).

Also, a Sugano signing would help my thesis that the “kids” are better served with more minor league development time in 2021 and not bounced up and down in the ML

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 7:36 am

Acuna extended with only $1MM in first year and NO bonus. On the other hand, Myers extended at $2MM base and $15MM bonus ($17MM cash in year one).

That is incorrect on Myers.  The bonus was spread out over 3 years.  He only received 1 MM at signing, then didn't get any more of it until 2 full seasons had been played, then 2 installments over a year.  He received over half of it after he had played 3 full seasons.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 9:20 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 7:36 am

Acuna extended with only $1MM in first year and NO bonus. On the other hand, Myers extended at $2MM base and $15MM bonus ($17MM cash in year one).

That is incorrect on Myers.  The bonus was spread out over 3 years.  He only received 1 MM at signing, then didn't get any more of it until 2 full seasons had been played, then 2 installments over a year.  He received over half of it after he had played 3 full seasons.

Then Spotrac is incorrect as they have the "cash" lumped in the first year with the just the application for payroll purposes spread over the longer deal .... then again, I could be misinterpreting their website structure.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 11:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 9:20 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 7:36 am

Acuna extended with only $1MM in first year and NO bonus. On the other hand, Myers extended at $2MM base and $15MM bonus ($17MM cash in year one).

That is incorrect on Myers.  The bonus was spread out over 3 years.  He only received 1 MM at signing, then didn't get any more of it until 2 full seasons had been played, then 2 installments over a year.  He received over half of it after he had played 3 full seasons.

Then Spotrac is incorrect as they have the "cash" lumped in the first year with the just the application for payroll purposes spread over the longer deal .... then again, I could be misinterpreting their website structure.

We're off thread topic here.   Myers's bonus structure was well documented & discussed at length (as part of the extreme back loading of his contract) on these boards.  But Cot's contracts site also doesn't show the breakdown.  I hate Sportrac's focus on the luxury tax threshold which affects almost no teams.  Applying the bonus by league rules, but not by actually when paid out i.e. actual cash flow or annual $ spent by team, which is way more important.  Wouldn't have to update the site much to do this, but sometimes the payouts like Pomeranz' are "fuzzy".

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 12:05 pm

Back to the topic ... if previous guesses are close ... Padres have the space to sign anyone not named Bauer off the FA market. Plus (this only goes for Sugano IF Preller really thinks he is legit ML) could see Siedler expanding the money available.

Getting the feeling that the money will go to SP. Bench adds and even RP will take a second seat probably with a few non-roster make good signings (e.g. Dozier, Kinsler types).