Quote from Brian Connelly on April 15, 2021, 4:59 pm

Quote from LynchMob on April 15, 2021, 4:26 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 15, 2021, 8:31 am

Once team gets to, or just after, the 2 off days around the 2-game Dbacks series, they need to decide who goes down with Lamet in a 5-man rotation:  Weathers or Paddack.

Or ... they could decide to go to 6-man rotation ... I'd like to see what happens with that 6-man!  I think they'd all get better ... and be better in October ...

Yeah, me too!   But the time to implement it is the long stretches with no days off.  Think with adding Lamet back & wanting to line up as many "top 4 " SP as possible vs LAD, it just doesn't work this go around.   After the 2nd LAD series ends (17 games in 17 days), Pads have 2 off days around 2 game set in Arizona, then I think 3 weeks in a row with 6 games, then off day.  After that they have another long stretch like 18 or 20 with no off days.

It would be "neat" to do the 6-man during the 6 on, 1 off stretch of 3 weeks, but that would be each SP only pitching once/wk on 6 days rest.  TOO much?   Maybe they implement it for that long stretch that starts in mid-May.

Quote from JasonE135 on April 15, 2021, 7:49 pm

Did anyone happen to see Paddack's curveball today? It actually looked like a useable 3rd pitch. Not that huge looper that a hitter can see from a mile away. It actually looked like a strike and he actually got a strikeout on it. He also got a few strikeouts on fastballs that were perfectly placed in corners. Anyway he seems to be starting to make his case for keeping his rotation spot.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 20, 2021, 11:01 am

Pads finally provide some near term rotation clarity.  Paddack today, Lamet returns tomorrow.  BUT then stick with a 6-man rotation through the LAD series =  Weathers, Darvish, Snell, Musgrove ALL with an extra day of rest.

Love getting the big 3 an extra day there, but going with Weathers (over Paddack) for the "4th" game is a huge vote of confidence in Weathers & says something...

Paddack HAS to get optioned here (for Lamet) after his start based on the other moves:  His next "turn" in rotation wouldn't come until 7 days later (+2 rest) @ Arizona; but Pads can use those off days to reset rotation:

• 4/26  OFF, 4/27 @ Ariz - Lamet (+1 rest), 4/28 @ Ariz- Darvish (+1 rest), 4/29 OFF,
• 4/30 vs SF - Snell (+1 rest), 5/1 vs SF - Musgrove (+1 rest), 5/2 vs SF - 5th SP either Paddack or Weathers ("skipped" turn in rotation).

They will stick with a 5-man rotation going into this Arizona series for 3 +weeks, then likely go to 6-man again soon after 5/21; when they begin a stretch of 20 games in a row.

Paddack is obviously > Neil Ramirez, but it doesn't make sense to option a fresh LH pen arm going into 4 games vs LAD that Paddack (AND Lamet) won't pitch in.  Combo of inserting Lamet & the schedule make it the most logical move.  Gives him 1-2 bullpens & maybe a sim game to work hard on the Curveball & any other secondary pitches.   He's got to get the use of those pitches up to 15% or something.  Barring disaster today, I expect him to return as the #5 SP with Weathers shifting to the pen (or see - roster moves).

Quote from fenn68 on April 20, 2021, 12:04 pm

Running the rotation to have Weathers - Darvish - Snell - Musgrove vs LAD with an extra day rest makes sense to me ... they have earned that challenge .... Paddack needs to show more consistency and not really wanting to gamble that Lamet is back to full form yet ... at least not against the LAD.

After the LAD series would expect returning to the 5 man rotation which will morph into a 5.5 man rotation as the games start to bunch up. Basically get the SP out every 6th day by using off days and Weathers as the 6th starter as needed. Would prefer Weathers in the prime 5 but he has shown he can be effective in the pen and start ... Paddack has never been in the pen and becomes a high risk conversion in a competitive season. Of course Paddack can lose his SP slot and the mix changes.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 23, 2021, 9:24 am

Weathers was lights out tonight. Should be interesting to see who the Padres go with next Tuesday ... Paddack (7 days rest) or Weathers (5 days rest) ... the one who does it start probably skips a start given the off days and probably not wanting to lag the other three starters to give them too much rest between starts.

???  Think you're over-complicating this.   Likely:  off day, Paddack (+2 rest days) & Weathers (+1) in Arizona, off day, setting up:

Darvish, Snell, Musgrove (all + 2) for big series vs. Giants.   Then Paddack (+1), Weathers (+1), & Darvish (normal) vs. Pirates.

The 3 weeks after the off day following Arizona are all 6 games, then off.  Extra rest for all except Day 1 of 6 SP.  This projects as:  1st week - Darvish, 2nd- Snell, & 3rd - Musgrove.

IF Lamet is truly ready to return after a near minimum IL stay, he will likely go very short like 2-3 IP at first.  I could see them piggybacking him with Weathers who doesn't seem to get phased by anything, and won't need 9 RP's with all the off days.

Then, with some needed luck, all are stretched out, but also well rested entering 20 games in row likely using a 6-man rotation... but that's an eternity away...

Quote from fenn68 on April 23, 2021, 10:22 am

But do the Padres actually want:

1. Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove to get lagged two days? Don’t know on the specific pitchers but getting two extra days while making them stronger in most cases also may negatively impact command. Sort of a similar issue with pitching with shorter rest ... both break up the routine for work between start. Will be interesting to see the Padres take on this.

2. Do they really want Paddack for another start?

Not thinking about Lamet’s return (bonus if he does healthy and effective) .... had 6 months to recover ... get ready ... lasted 2 innings .... skeptical that 10 more days rest will vault him to his 2020 profile.

Quote from LynchMob on April 23, 2021, 11:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 23, 2021, 10:22 am

But do the Padres actually want:

1. Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove to get lagged two days? Don’t know on the specific pitchers but getting two extra days while making them stronger in most cases also may negatively impact command. Sort of a similar issue with pitching with shorter rest ... both break up the routine for work between start. Will be interesting to see the Padres take on this.

2. Do they really want Paddack for another start?

Not thinking about Lamet’s return (bonus if he does healthy and effective) .... had 6 months to recover ... get ready ... lasted 2 innings .... skeptical that 10 more days rest will vault him to his 2020 profile.

We differ on the impact of "two extra days" rest ... I think it's a GOOD thing.

re: Paddack ... ack, yes ... that's a key question!  My gut says he's been good enough to keep in the rotation ... but mostly because I don't like the alternative, ie. I don't like passing up this opportunity to get guys an extra day or 2 of rest ...

re: Lamet ... total bonus if he throws another inning ... ie. i'm skeptical also ... just think the brass can't be publicly skeptical ... which means what?  That Gore is the next-man-up if and when, right?  (And then ... Lawson? ... Avila? ... Scholtens? ... Thompson? ... Humphreys? ... we sure need the minors to start up ... I gotta say that I really don't understand the length of this delay)

I'm basing my list of minor league SP's on what I'm seeing at FanGraphs' Depth Chart ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 23, 2021, 3:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on April 23, 2021, 10:22 am

But do the Padres actually want:

1. Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove to get lagged two days? Don’t know on the specific pitchers but getting two extra days while making them stronger in most cases also may negatively impact command. Sort of a similar issue with pitching with shorter rest ... both break up the routine for work between start. Will be interesting to see the Padres take on this.

2. Do they really want Paddack for another start?

Not thinking about Lamet’s return (bonus if he does healthy and effective) .... had 6 months to recover ... get ready ... lasted 2 innings .... skeptical that 10 more days rest will vault him to his 2020 profile.

Weathers just went the longest he's gone in his career.  Don't see the value there in cutting an extra day of rest for he AND the other top 3 SP just to skip 1 Paddack start (on 2 days extra rest).

1.  I don't think it's THAT hard, particularly when you know their schedule in advance, for the SP's to "manage" that extra off day.  Also, I think it does allow them to maybe extend Darvish/Snell/Musgrove some in these 3 big games that are likely to be close, possibly extra innings, with a blown out bullpen... know they'll get extra recovery time.

2.  Yes COULD skip 1 Paddack start, but then how does he stay ready going 12? days between starts?  He IS the #5 SP now... not an alternative.  The "bigger picture" is looking ahead to which SP gets 2 starts each of the 3 weeks they have 6 games, then off day.  As it stands right now, it's the 3 guys you want.  Also the "big 3" SP not only for this series, but San Fran @ home off extra rest too.

Agree any Lamet IP a (potentially large) bonus, since we were all thinking they were gone.  The concept of piggybacking him with/before Weathers same day is really appealing.  Limits both guys IP, limit pen use the day after Paddack's turn.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 23, 2021, 8:01 pm

Apparently Tingler said today:

1. Weathers will stay in the starting rotation

2. Lamet threw well today ... no pain ... will go through a normal progression with the intent to have him return when eligible

Add those two tidbits with the coming run of off days until the end of May .... and who pitches when becomes more interesting ... could be a lot of starts with 6 days rest over the next month. (Although still not betting on Lamet).

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