Quote from Brian Connelly on April 14, 2021, 12:48 pm

Barring a disastrous outing from Paddack (hard to do worse than Snell's) tomorrow, don't think they do this... they need to get to actually having Lamet back AND the 2 off days in 4 to hit the "re-set" button.   Until Lamet has arrived & gone through one turn, Paddack & Weathers are the 4th & 5th SP.

If they had inserted Weathers today, one of the benefits is you would have had he & Paddack making 2 starts vs. same 2 teams to better judge on live results how to best use both guys.

The "DFA day of reckoning" will arrive someday for Taylor Williams &/or Altavilla, but Pads should push it off as long as they can to survive the long season.

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2021, 1:40 pm

Think the debate within the Padres’ FO starts with their confidence in Lamet being activated next Mon / Tues and being effective. Doubt they activate him without the idea he gets multiple starts upon his return.

Could wait on optioning either Weathers or Paddack until then ... but IF both go deep into their starts on Thurs / Friday probably not available to pitch in relief before Lamet’s arrival. Question of being potential better off v the LAD with the “extra” RP?

Everything starts with Lamet ... so would expect the Padres at the alternate site give him a 75 pitch outing today (or tomorrow) and if he looks good and comes out healthy they will feel “comfortable” with activating next Monday or Tuesday.

Paddack’s performance tomorrow is the second shoe ... if good he probably stays in the rotation and Weathers remains in the pen (even if good on Friday) ... then someone else is moved to make room for Lamet next week. If Paddack stinks ... Weathers is good on Friday ... Weathers gets the #5 spot and unlikely Paddack is in the pen (optioned). IF BOTH Paddack and Weathers stink ... no idea.

After two starts (at least) if Lamet is struggling ... he has the full boat of minor league options ... could be sent down and whomever is optioned could be called up for the following Lamet scheduled start.

Padres have to make a pretty daunting series of calls of keeping the ML staff in the best position to win (SP/RP) while keeping flexible to manipulate arms as unplanned circumstances dictate ... all while trying not to DFA any option.

Quote from JasonE135 on April 14, 2021, 2:41 pm

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2021, 1:40 pm

Think the debate within the Padres’ FO starts with their confidence in Lamet being activated next Mon / Tues and being effective. Doubt they activate him without the idea he gets multiple starts upon his return.

Could wait on optioning either Weathers or Paddack until then ... but IF both go deep into their starts on Thurs / Friday probably not available to pitch in relief before Lamet’s arrival. Question of being potential better off v the LAD with the “extra” RP?

Everything starts with Lamet ... so would expect the Padres at the alternate site give him a 75 pitch outing today (or tomorrow) and if he looks good and comes out healthy they will feel “comfortable” with activating next Monday or Tuesday.

Paddack’s performance tomorrow is the second shoe ... if good he probably stays in the rotation and Weathers remains in the pen (even if good on Friday) ... then someone else is moved to make room for Lamet next week. If Paddack stinks ... Weathers is good on Friday ... Weathers gets the #5 spot and unlikely Paddack is in the pen (optioned). IF BOTH Paddack and Weathers stink ... no idea.

After two starts (at least) if Lamet is struggling ... he has the full boat of minor league options ... could be sent down and whomever is optioned could be called up for the following Lamet scheduled start.

Padres have to make a pretty daunting series of calls of keeping the ML staff in the best position to win (SP/RP) while keeping flexible to manipulate arms as unplanned circumstances dictate ... all while trying not to DFA any option.

We currently have only 3 starters on absolutely solid footing right now with Darvish, Snell and Musgrove. Everyone else is up in the air. Paddack and Weathers are both needed right now just to give us innings. Weathers still has yet to start a mlb game. I think it is a bit soon to be expecting anything from him. I'm sure that results will dictate the Padres moves from here on. If Paddack flops again he will be in danger of being replaced, but it is no guarantee as he is one guy who can be counted on for innings. The same cannot be said about Morejon or Weathers. Lamet will be the only injured starter guaranteed a spot when he is healthy. The other 3 will be battling it out for the #5 & #6 spots. 2 of them will be needed for the upcoming stretch of 17 games in 17 days.

I expect Paddack to keep the #5 spot as he is the most proven. Unless he bombs. I actually expect that we will have all 3 of Paddack, Weathers and Morejon to be continually rotated in and out of the rotation all year long depending on various injuries and effectiveness. I think that both Tingler and Preller consider only 4 spots in the rotation guaranteed. The #5 spot (& #6) will be whoever is pitching best.

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2021, 2:50 pm

Agree that #5 slot will get a lot of ins and outs ... who is hot / who is not.  Should probably NOT consider Morejon since the comments have been he is getting “second opinions” on his injury for HIS medical consultants. That usually means the Padres evaluation is serious (probably TJ).

Plus still would not rule out seeing Gore in that role at some point during the season ... can be easily added with Morejon likely to the 60 day IL.

So #5 is setting up Paddack - Weathers - Gore .... not sure I see anyone else (who would be compelling) sitting in the Padres system to challenge those three in 2021. IF things go south with those three ... look for a mid-season trade to bolster that slot (probably a “rental” type for 2021).

 

Quote from BoosterSD on April 14, 2021, 3:50 pm

I still expect that if/when Gore gets called up, it is for good in a rotation spot. Obviously based on performance. He cant get bombed 4 games in a row and stay. However, dont expect that they will call him up until they believe that is not a likelihood. So if/when Gore is called up, look for Paddack/Weathers to fill in the random 6th start/long relief. Of course, depending on Paddacks performance, he could very well see some time in San Antonio working on that 3rd pitch.

With Gore knocking on the door, Weathers pretty much already here, and Clevinger returning healthy next year(in theory) Paddacks tenure with SD is in jeopardy IMO. Could see him as a piece used to nab the OF upgrade we will need next season. Even if he has a down performance season, some team will give him the "change of scenery" benefit.

Quote from fenn68 on April 14, 2021, 4:14 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on April 14, 2021, 3:50 pm

I still expect that if/when Gore gets called up, it is for good in a rotation spot. Obviously based on performance. He cant get bombed 4 games in a row and stay. However, dont expect that they will call him up until they believe that is not a likelihood. So if/when Gore is called up, look for Paddack/Weathers to fill in the random 6th start/long relief. Of course, depending on Paddacks performance, he could very well see some time in San Antonio working on that 3rd pitch.

With Gore knocking on the door, Weathers pretty much already here, and Clevinger returning healthy next year(in theory) Paddacks tenure with SD is in jeopardy IMO. Could see him as a piece used to nab the OF upgrade we will need next season. Even if he has a down performance season, some team will give him the "change of scenery" benefit.

Also, don't want to jinks this, but have to factor in the chance that one (or more) of Darvish-Snell-Musgrove-Lamet -  Paddack go on the IL creating a hole in the starting 5. Weather could fill or be a pen option ... the others not likely.

Agree that every report is that when Gore arrives it is to stay and as a starter ... but it is a long season and circumstances can make that a need.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 15, 2021, 7:28 am

The Padres did consider starting Dinelson Lamet on Friday, but decided to have him make one more start at the alternate site. That is scheduled to take place Thursday, when he is expected to throw 70 pitches.

That would set him up for a Tuesday 4/20 return/debut vs Brewers on normal rest (not Monday).  He IS lined up with Paddack...

Knowing Weathers will be limited, and CP good, OK, or bad not available at all vs LAD, maybe it IS Paddack down for Gore (someone to 60-day) to try to go back to back 3 IP maybe?  But Gore just started an Alt site game on Monday, so Friday would be short rest for him.

Was also thinking maybe they move Snell up since his last outing was SO short.  Who knows at this point.  Would REALLY just like to see Paddack pitch well, get 5+ IP, keep them in the game, and have our offense get hot & win big (or win period!) today.

Quote from fenn68 on April 15, 2021, 7:57 am

So, the rotation is setting up:

v. PITT: Paddack

v. LAD: Weathers (maybe) - Darvish - Snell

v. MILW: Musgrove - Lamet (maybe) - Weathers (maybe)

v. LAD: Darvish - Snell - Musgrove - Lamet (maybe)

Off day (Monday) and Off day (Thursday) will give rest to the staff and allow maybe for some resetting if needed.

=====

Possible they run Paddack out instead of Weathers v. MILW ... give Weathers some down time to be fresh out of the pen for LAD. May depend how Paddack does today and Weathers does tomorrow.

Still open question on who is moved to make room for Lamet ... betting that one of Adams - Altavilla returns to the IL unless Paddack really struggles today and he is not likely a RP option.

Beginning to sound as though Morejon will be a 60 day IL option if a 40 man roster slot is needed (eg Gore) but can't rule out Strahm who (as far as we know) has yet to resume baseball activities and returning to ML pitching will take some time (rehab). Would consider an outside chance Ona either goes 60 IL or DFA.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 15, 2021, 8:31 am

It really depends how Paddack does today I think.   If he has a decent outing going 5+ IP, the pen SHOULD be OK heading into 1st game.  So even though HE won't be available vs LAD (same is true of Musgrove), he'll have done his job.  But if he only goes 2-3 IP, it basically forces the move to get a fresh arm for needed IP tomorrow, plus have to try something different anyway.

It would be way better for Pads if he does well, so Weathers (for now) is making a spot start, then available out of pen the last 2 series; particularly as LHP vs LAD.  I still think Tim Hill gets optioned for Lamet.  Once team gets to, or just after, the 2 off days around the 2-game Dbacks series, they need to decide who goes down with Lamet in a 5-man rotation:  Weathers or Paddack.  Hill would be back after a minimum 10 days down.