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2021 Season
#751 · July 19, 2021, 8:05 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2021, 8:32 pmQuote from WindsorUK on July 18, 2021, 6:48 pmSurely there must be a way to create a 3 dimensional....prism like?....space that mimics the strike zone for each hitter?
The Padre broadcasts always show that rectangular 2D strike zone. The strike zone isn't 2 dimensional!
Put cameras above and to either side of the plate. If at any time the ball goes through that 3D prism, it's a strike.
You're right 84, it shouldn't be that difficult. Still need a home plate ump for other things, but balls and strikes? Time to move forward.
The 3-D system already exists … and occasionally is shows up (ESPN I think).
The robo strikes zone will be in place in a couple of years … needs to get negotiated with the union (I expect both players union and umps union) and the technology has to be installed in each ballpark. Plus MLB is “testing” a form in one of the A leagues and want to see how it impacts the game before going all in.
Side note: the strike zone is just a area created as the MLB sees fit … so in reality, if they choose, it could be defined as the front edge of the plate and not be 3-D if that is easier to implement. The difference is probably small in calling strikes / balls. More important to be consistent and allow the pitchers / hitters to adapt.
Also, could automate the checked swing call based on the bat clearing the front edge of the plate … again just a consistent rule.
The biggest benefit to me is that I can finally stop listing to about every broadcaster / analyst whine about bad calls … although they may have little to talk about. Make the commentary more upbeat than being negative.
Cheers for that Fenn. Again, something I didn't know.
Great thing about baseball- something new everyday......speaking of which....did you see Tajuan Walker's faux pas? Man, guys are getting dumb.
#752 · July 19, 2021, 11:39 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2021, 3:01 pmJose Barrios from MINN? MINN is out of it … Barrios is an innings eater with a very good track record (ERA below 4.00) … under control for 2022 (arbitration) and only about $6MM (prorated down to about $2MM for the rest of this season).
Would cost a couple of upper end prospects … probably at least one SP (Gore or Weathers). Maybe?
Word from MLBTR is that Barrios would cost 1 MLB pre arb player and 2 top 100 level prospects, plus a flier or two prospects.
So Paddack, Gore, and Marcano, plus one or two low level "A" gamble guys?
If we include Paddack, Gore, Marcano, and maybe an Ona plus, could we get both Barrios and Pineda? Is Pineda an upgrade over Paddack?
#753 · July 19, 2021, 12:41 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2021, 11:39 amQuote from fenn68 on July 15, 2021, 3:01 pmJose Barrios from MINN? MINN is out of it … Barrios is an innings eater with a very good track record (ERA below 4.00) … under control for 2022 (arbitration) and only about $6MM (prorated down to about $2MM for the rest of this season).
Would cost a couple of upper end prospects … probably at least one SP (Gore or Weathers). Maybe?
Word from MLBTR is that Barrios would cost 1 MLB pre arb player and 2 top 100 level prospects, plus a flier or two prospects.
So Paddack, Gore, and Marcano, plus one or two low level "A" gamble guys?
If we include Paddack, Gore, Marcano, and maybe an Ona plus, could we get both Barrios and Pineda? Is Pineda an upgrade over Paddack?
Doubt any team will pay that asking price (some just can’t) so either the ask will come down or MINN does not sell (no compelling need). If they sell it is the best offer not the ask and they will sell (or should sell) if the offer is just a good offer.
I don’t see Paddack have much trade value (and he is in arbitration for 2022) and everything I have heard is that Gore will not be dealt while his stock is down.
So, I would see Campusano as the key piece (Padres have Nola and Caratini for the next three seasons). I would go with Marcano and a couple of good (but not top 100 prospects) but MINN still would want more and may ask for Campusano and Weathers then backfill with some mid-level prospects. Gets more expensive if the MINN has to add someone else.
Would guess Campusano would be the Top 100 prospect Preller would be willing to move … the hang up would be Weathers (but not out of the question). I really like the potential of Weathers but next year the Padres would still have Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Lamet. Clevinger. Paddack. AND Berrios plus some minor league bodies.
If you believe (as I do) that 2021 and 2022 are their best window and a proven piece in Berrios over a prospect might get them there. By. 2023, a lot of new challenges will emerge.
#754 · July 19, 2021, 1:21 pm
I mentioned this before but have to wonder how much the potential 2022 work stoppage weighs on the decision process of GMs (both buyers and sellers).
If I am a buyer do I want to pay premium for a controllable player thru 2022 over a player only controlled in 2021 IF there is a good chance the buying team will not get full value of his work in 2022? IF I am a seller do I want to move at the best return I can get rather than hold until the winter or next season? Next winter (trading season) there may be a clear indication of a work stoppage essentially freezing any player movement.
Gambles on both sides but the buyer has to believe they will win in 2021.
Padres need another SP but will Berrios added get the Padres past the LAD and SF to a Division championship? … otherwise only a one game play in gamble where they are currently sitting. How much to pay for that? Note: looking at the loss column the Padres are way behind the Giants (and LAD) so the odds of catching BOTH has to be small.
Not an easy analysis if you are a GM looking at probabilities and not just emotion.
#755 · July 19, 2021, 1:44 pm
OK … some uncertainty here:
1. Darvish activated of the 10 day IL
2. Diaz optioned to EP to make room
3. Norwood back to EP (he was 27th man for yesterdays “double header”)
4. Humphreys was “outrighted” to SA … that is the interesting piece if I read this right.
Humphreys was on the 40 man … did not pitch well as he returned from his IL … so apparently dropped from the 40 man. That opens a spot for either:
1. Adding a non-roster prospect (no idea who right now)
2. Someone coming off the 60 day IL (no idea if anyone is ready … none in rehab assignments)
3. Adding someone in a trade (using non-roster prospects to get).
Keep your eyes open …
#756 · July 19, 2021, 2:01 pm
Noticed that on “roster resource” the Padres (in AAA) have added OF Andrew Stevenson (LHH) and to the 40 man roster. Had to get him yesterday from WASH … he was up as their 27th man and was being sent back down.
Add Stevenson is a bit of a head scratcher … LHH and can play all three OF slots but a 27 year old journeyman in his last option year. Not sure the difference from O’Grady or even Marcano.
No idea how they got him … IF all this is true. Would guess WASH would take a journeyman RP off the AAA roster but just a guess.
#757 · July 19, 2021, 3:05 pm
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2021, 1:21 pmNote: looking at the loss column the Padres are way behind the Giants (and LAD) so the odds of catching BOTH has to be small.
Part of the reason we are so far back in the loss column, especially the Giants, is that they have played 4 games less than SD. Now averages say they will not lose them all, however something to keep in mind as the season wares on. Especially with the full season after lasts seasons short season, and SF fell off in the second last season as well. They are an older team, particularly over SD.
#758 · July 19, 2021, 3:29 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2021, 3:05 pmQuote from fenn68 on July 19, 2021, 1:21 pmNote: looking at the loss column the Padres are way behind the Giants (and LAD) so the odds of catching BOTH has to be small.
Part of the reason we are so far back in the loss column, especially the Giants, is that they have played 4 games less than SD. Now averages say they will not lose them all, however something to keep in mind as the season wares on. Especially with the full season after lasts seasons short season, and SF fell off in the second last season as well. They are an older team, particularly over SD.
That is what everyone is betting … and SF has a real brutal schedule to the end … so a good chance they implode and that 7 game difference can evaporate. However part of the brutal schedule is with the LAD who are 5 games ahead of the Padres in the loss column. More worried about catching the LAD than SF but would more of a challenge to overtake both.
Padres only have 66 games to play and time is getting short for other teams to lose to close that gap.
current odds based on record and strength of coming schedule:
1. Making the playoffs: LAD (99.6%); SD (93.4%), SF (91.0%)
2. Winning the Division: LAD (73.4%); SD (14.2%); SF (12.4%)
So basically their analysis has the Padres catching SF but not the LAD … not even close in their view … 5-6 games behind at season end. Can one add make up that difference? Always a chance … but getting to be long odds.
#759 · July 19, 2021, 3:36 pm
We also play the Giants like 10 times on the last 3 weeks of the season I believe.
We need to be ahead of them when that happens.
Sweeping the Braves in this series while the Giants and Dodgers square off would be a good start.
#760 · July 19, 2021, 3:39 pm
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2021, 3:29 pmQuote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2021, 3:05 pmQuote from fenn68 on July 19, 2021, 1:21 pmNote: looking at the loss column the Padres are way behind the Giants (and LAD) so the odds of catching BOTH has to be small.
Part of the reason we are so far back in the loss column, especially the Giants, is that they have played 4 games less than SD. Now averages say they will not lose them all, however something to keep in mind as the season wares on. Especially with the full season after lasts seasons short season, and SF fell off in the second last season as well. They are an older team, particularly over SD.
That is what everyone is betting … and SF has a real brutal schedule to the end … so a good chance they implode and that 7 game difference can evaporate. However part of the brutal schedule is with the LAD who are 5 games ahead of the Padres in the loss column. More worried about catching the LAD than SF but would more of a challenge to overtake both.
Padres only have 66 games to play and time is getting short for other teams to lose to close that gap.
current odds based on record and strength of coming schedule:
1. Making the playoffs: LAD (99.6%); SD (93.4%), SF (91.0%)
2. Winning the Division: LAD (73.4%); SD (14.2%); SF (12.4%)
So basically their analysis has the Padres catching SF but not the LAD … not even close in their view … 5-6 games behind at season end. Can one add make up that difference? Always a chance … but getting to be long odds.
Still factors yet to be included.
Obviously injuries can be critical to a team….plus something like the Bauer situation(does he pitch for LAD again this year?).
Plus the trade deadline…..who improves the most and by how much.
Wild card is what do the Giants do to improve?
Will be interesting to see these odds in a couple weeks time….