Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2021, 2:43 pm

I am a bit old school and get frustrated that SP can’t go deep into games ... and worried (expect) the relief pitchers will burn out by June.

However, the results for the Padres of the current “strategy” is getting them #1 in the NL with the lowest ERA (#2 in SP and #1 in RP).

Now projecting this over the rest of the season? Maybe they are saving bullets in the arms of the SP early so they are effectively pitching at the end of the season? Save the SP and burn the disposable (replaceable) RP? Given the league’s injury profile this year ... not sure anyone knows the best strategy in handling a staff.

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Since I have that feeling that one of the SP will go down with a long term injury ... betting on Lamet ... so think Paddack will get his chance.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2021, 2:54 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2021, 2:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2021, 2:26 pm

Lamet will start tonight ... no announcement on the player optioned yet.

Hopefully he can go at least five.

That was never even close to the plan...   he & Weathers going 5.0 combined = any of the 3 other SP but Darvish (not incl no hitters 🙂  )

It's logical they go piggyback like this 2 more times until they hit the stretch of 20 in a row.  SHOULD give most of the pen an off day those next 2 games.

Sounds about right going forward. My “hope he goes 5” was based on the last time he was sent out to start (the re-injury game) with a plan for 75 pitches per the Padres. After this game did hear the plan was 2 innings / 30-40 pitches but IF he was ready for 75 then ... reported excellent post re-injury work ... maybe not as recovered as we hope?

Seems as though they were right ... his velocity was 94-95 MPH in the 1st then dropped to 91 MPH in the 2nd. Padres are very guarded in what they say .... but I am concerned that they sent him out with such a low pitch limit and still his velo dropped by the 2nd inning.

I am hoping for the best BUT .......

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2021, 4:34 pm

Totally different situation to build up to 60+ pitches at Alt site with no setbacks at all leading into "5/75" limit in MLB season debut vs. return from Forearm tightness AND Weathers' sore arm.

2021's a marathon, not a sprint.  No idea how we're going to finish it.  Suspect approx 30 teams will be buyers for "MLB SP" (even rentals) at deadline... even the bad teams have to protect the health of the guys they have going forward.  Won't be enough to go around; expect (trade) cost to be very high.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2021, 4:41 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2021, 2:27 pm

Kim in starting lineup for Machado @ 3B.

And Pham (Leading off!) for Grisham.   Strategically trying to rotate giving guys days vs the Pirates.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2021, 11:19 am

Just enough to get the series win...

Kim on Defense !!!!     SO good have to seriously consider him as late game defensive sub at 2B & especially...   SS

Tatis throwing is OBVIOUSLY in his head.  He's just not in flow; now he's over-deliberately slowing down; causing him to gun it 100 MPH to barely beat the guy, leading to less acccurate throws, etc...

Assume he's out there working groundball drills, but I would do so with Mateo & Kim running out of the box to 1B to get that "real" timing vs speed down.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2021, 11:31 am

Padres P's (SP & RP) in MLB:  2.76 ERA = #1 (2nd: 3.00),  .203 BAA = #1,  1.08 WHIP #2

Yankees are #2, #2 (.210), #1 (1.05) respectively, so we are the class of the NL.

Top 10 ERA:  SD, NYY, LAD, NYM, Miami, CWS, SF, Toronto, Milw, Cleve 3.74 (#11 Boston: 3.85)

Remember DH in AL only, but still, almost 1.00 ERA better than the #10 (good!) pitching staff is incredible!

Room for regression (Snell if he doesn't reduce walks, Weathers, RP in general, dilution of no-hitter over more games, etc)

...but also,incredibly room for improvement (Snell if he does reduce walks, Paddack improve or replace (Gore?), return of Lamet, fewer fringe bullpen IP, etc...)

Still really early, but VERY encouraging.   With this pitching & overwhelming #1 team speed, "just" need league average offensive production:  HR, OPS, etc to be a dominant team.

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2021, 5:46 pm

So the coming SP sequence is Snell - Musgrove - TBD - Darvish - TBD - Snell - OFF

TBD is some combo of Lamet, Weathers, and Paddack we assume with Lamet / Weathers on schedule for next SUN (both on innings limits still) and with Paddack returning for the Tuesday start.

Could Paddack throw a wrench in this ... he has been 10 day IL due to COVID (we don't know how serious) and with protocols quarantined away from the team (so not practicing) ... per protocols Padres can't really disclose much but

1. if a serious case ... might he need longer than the 10 days?
2. if ready to clear protocols and if he has not thrown in 10 days ... is he ready to come back and start? Might he be sent to the alternate site first to get some bullpens in before returning?

Just a worrisome though.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 7, 2021, 8:12 am

Good point about not being there practicing...

Tingler has already mentioned a rehab minors start being a possibility for Paddack.

If CP doesn't return for game 3 @ SF or game 1 @ Col, the only options I see are:

1. Lamet & Weathers DON'T piggyback; they each take 1 start.  I really don't like this idea since they'll each be in the 3-4 IP range. Do have Crismatt as a long man behind one of them.
2. Lamet & Weathers DO piggyback one of those games, "saving" most of the bullpen that day.  Crismatt starts the other game.  Better odds of winning say, the SF game.  But have to not use Crismatt the entire SF series, and game 1 in Colorado could go off the rails quickly.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 7, 2021, 9:05 am

Fenn,  not sure there's much to be gained by having Darvish go on normal rest game 1 in Col  vs 1 day extra rest & start game 2

Messes up the rotation going forward, and might be better to have Darvish backstopping what is likely to be a heavy pen day game 1.

Plus gotta take care of the health of the golden goose