Quote from BoosterSD on March 30, 2021, 9:39 am

Quote from 84padres on March 30, 2021, 9:04 am

Might be time for Paddock to transit to RP this year. Having only 2 pitches a lot of people think that's his destiny.

And with the nickname like "The Sheriff", great spiel to play up as coming in for the 9th inning. Play the theme song from the good, the bad, the ugly, and every time he strikes someone out, play a gun ricochet sound.

Quote from fenn68 on March 30, 2021, 9:44 am

Agree that Paddack has to get his act together soon especially for a "contending" Padres' team. Padres do have to evaluate him vs. the alternatives. Assuming Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove hold #1-3 for at least 2021-22 .... who takes the #4-5:

1. Lamet seems to be targeted to return in LATE Apr or early May ... and that will force some decision ... IF Lamet remains healthy and there is no worry about a re-injury.
2. Morejon sits in the rotation now ... clearly as the multi-pitch arsenal and upper 90s velocity to be a starter ... still only 22 and coming off a good ST .... but keep in mind he is still a developing prospect
3. Weathers (only 21) with very limited professional experience maybe the next up ... and the Padres really clearly like him ... but what has he really shown as a ML SP ... zip.
4. Gore (only 22) and has not done well in ML camp ... clearly needs a longer minor league run for development.
5. Paddack (25) the incumbent but unlike Morejon, Weathers, or Gore lacks the multi-pitch arsenal needed for a SP without an overpowering FB or breaking ball. Can he still develop one? How confident are they in the ML production of two of the other four? Do the need another RP for 2021? IF Paddack sits at #5 in the rotation and "effective" in 2 of every 3 starts while getting bombed in the other is that better output than an alternative?

If Morejon produces in April and Lamet returns in May ... a decision needs to be made on Paddack and that could be an option to the minors (he has the full three left). Given the returning (out of option) RP arms ... not a lot of room for Paddack (being untested) in the ML pen in 2021. I guess work him as a SP in the minors to develop that 3rd pitch (would build insurance / trade value) and later covert him to the pen if necessary. 2022 could be even more of a challenge for him if he does not develop with (hopefully) Clevinger returning effectively and a year's more development of Morejon - Weathers - Gore and the return of Darvish - Snell - Musgrove.

April is setting up to be the key to his future as a SP / Padre.

Quote from fenn68 on March 30, 2021, 9:49 am

Report is that Baez will require TJ surgery ... lost for the season.

Quote from WindsorUK on March 30, 2021, 11:27 am

That stinks.

Quote from WindsorUK on March 30, 2021, 11:30 am

So Clevinger, Castillo, Baez.......anyone else? Maybe Adams?

Lamet could be possible? Espinoza recovering.

Does every staff have half their guys recovering or recovered from TJ?

Quote from fenn68 on March 30, 2021, 11:47 am

Quote from WindsorUK on March 30, 2021, 11:30 am

So Clevinger, Castillo, Baez.......anyone else? Maybe Adams?

Lamet could be possible? Espinoza recovering.

Does every staff have half their guys recovering or recovered from TJ?

Don't forget Wingenter is out with TJ.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on March 30, 2021, 12:40 pm

And soon to be Javy Guerra as well, I would expect.

Quote from LynchMob on March 30, 2021, 1:27 pm

DepthChart / Projections at FanGraphs ... https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=29

C Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Austin Nola	326	0.248	0.327	0.39	0.308	-4.1	-0.1	1.6	1.4
Victor Caratini	205	0.25	0.328	0.387	0.308	-2.6	-0.2	0.3	0.8
Luis Campusano	109	0.252	0.314	0.393	0.302	-1.9	-0.1	-0.2	0.3
Total	640	0.249	0.325	0.389	0.307	-8.5	-0.4	1.7	2.5
1B Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Eric Hosmer	637	0.259	0.32	0.427	0.315	-3.8	-0.9	0.3	0.5
Jake Cronenworth	35	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-0.1	0	0.1	0
Austin Nola	14	0.248	0.327	0.39	0.308	-0.2	0	0	0
Jurickson Profar	14	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	0	0	0	0
Total	700	0.259	0.321	0.425	0.316	-4.2	-0.9	0.3	0.5
2B Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Jake Cronenworth	357	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-1.3	-0.1	0.8	1.2
Ha-seong Kim	196	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-0.8	0	0	0.6
Jurickson Profar	126	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	-0.3	0.2	-0.1	0.4
Tucupita Marcano	21	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-1.7	0	0	-0.1
Total	700	0.261	0.332	0.404	0.316	-4	0.1	0.7	2.1
SS Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr.	658	0.285	0.365	0.546	0.377	30.9	1.4	-2.1	5.7
Ha-seong Kim	21	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0.1
Jake Cronenworth	14	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0.1
Tucupita Marcano	7	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-0.6	0	0	0
Total	700	0.283	0.362	0.536	0.372	30.3	1.4	-2	5.8
3B Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Manny Machado	672	0.272	0.344	0.506	0.351	16.7	-0.2	3.3	4.3
Ha-seong Kim	14	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0
Jurickson Profar	7	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	0	0	0	0
Tucupita Marcano	7	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-0.6	0	0	0
Total	700	0.271	0.343	0.501	0.349	16.1	-0.2	3.3	4.3
LF Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Tommy Pham	497	0.264	0.359	0.433	0.339	7.2	1.6	0.5	1.9
Jurickson Profar	168	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	-0.4	0.3	-0.2	0.3
Jake Cronenworth	14	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0
Ha-seong Kim	14	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0
Jorge Mateo	7	0.217	0.26	0.356	0.261	-0.4	0	0	0
Total	700	0.26	0.35	0.428	0.333	6.3	1.9	0.3	2.3
CF Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Trent Grisham	595	0.245	0.347	0.437	0.334	6.2	0.2	5.2	3.2
Tommy Pham	56	0.264	0.359	0.433	0.339	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.3
Jorge Mateo	28	0.217	0.26	0.356	0.261	-1.5	0	0	-0.1
Tucupita Marcano	14	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-1.1	0	0	-0.1
Jake Cronenworth	7	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	0	0	0	0
Total	700	0.244	0.343	0.429	0.33	4.3	0.4	5.2	3.4
RF Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Wil Myers	609	0.244	0.322	0.464	0.33	3.7	1	-1.6	1.6
Jurickson Profar	63	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	-0.2	0.1	-0.1	0.1
Brian O'Grady	21	0.215	0.289	0.397	0.29	-0.6	0	0.1	0
Jorge Oña	7	0.217	0.287	0.355	0.277	-0.3	0	0	0
Total	700	0.243	0.321	0.456	0.327	2.7	1.1	-1.7	1.7
DH Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Jurickson Profar	70	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	-0.2	0.1	0	0
Jake Cronenworth	56	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-0.2	0	0	0
Jorge Mateo	49	0.217	0.26	0.356	0.261	-2.6	0	0	-0.2
Victor Caratini	42	0.25	0.328	0.387	0.308	-0.5	0	0	0
Ha-seong Kim	35	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-0.1	0	0	0
Tommy Pham	28	0.264	0.359	0.433	0.339	0.4	0.1	0	0.1
Austin Nola	14	0.248	0.327	0.39	0.308	-0.2	0	0	0
Tucupita Marcano	14	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-1.1	0	0	-0.1
Total	308	0.248	0.319	0.393	0.305	-4.5	0.1	0	-0.2
ALL Batters Padres
Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr.	658	0.285	0.365	0.546	0.377	30.9	1.4	-2.1	5.7
Manny Machado	672	0.272	0.344	0.506	0.351	16.7	-0.2	3.3	4.3
Trent Grisham	595	0.245	0.347	0.437	0.334	6.2	0.2	5.2	3.2
Tommy Pham	581	0.264	0.359	0.433	0.339	8.4	1.9	0.5	2.3
Wil Myers	609	0.244	0.322	0.464	0.33	3.7	1	-1.6	1.6
Austin Nola	354	0.248	0.327	0.39	0.308	-4.4	-0.1	1.6	1.4
Jake Cronenworth	483	0.267	0.339	0.4	0.318	-1.7	-0.2	1	1.4
Jurickson Profar	448	0.251	0.33	0.418	0.32	-1.1	0.8	-0.4	0.9
Ha-seong Kim	280	0.26	0.329	0.418	0.318	-1.1	-0.1	0	0.8
Victor Caratini	247	0.25	0.328	0.387	0.308	-3.1	-0.3	0.3	0.8
Eric Hosmer	637	0.259	0.32	0.427	0.315	-3.8	-0.9	0.3	0.5
Luis Campusano	109	0.252	0.314	0.393	0.302	-1.9	-0.1	-0.2	0.3
Brian O'Grady	21	0.215	0.289	0.397	0.29	-0.6	0	0.1	0
Jorge Oña	7	0.217	0.287	0.355	0.277	-0.3	0	0	0
Jorge Mateo	84	0.217	0.26	0.356	0.261	-4.5	0	-0.1	-0.3
Tucupita Marcano	63	0.211	0.252	0.271	0.229	-5.1	0	0	-0.3
Total	5848	0.258	0.336	0.444	0.33	38.3	3.4	7.8	22.4
SP Padres
Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Yu Darvish	184	11	2.7	1.2	0.302	75.30%	3.46	3.51	4.1
Joe Musgrove	164	9.2	2.3	1.2	0.306	73.10%	3.87	3.9	3.2
Blake Snell	146	11	3.5	1.1	0.301	76.30%	3.42	3.55	3.1
Dinelson Lamet	123	11.8	3.5	1.1	0.306	75.10%	3.5	3.49	2.7
Chris Paddack	122	9.4	2.2	1.4	0.302	73.50%	3.88	3.97	2
MacKenzie Gore	75	9.6	3.8	1.3	0.304	73.70%	4.13	4.32	1
Adrian Morejon	39	10.6	3.7	1.1	0.315	75.10%	3.67	3.76	0.7
Ryan Weathers	13	6.7	3.7	1.2	0.307	71.40%	4.6	4.81	0.1
Reggie Lawson	9	8.2	4.9	1.4	0.307	70.90%	5.09	5.22	0
Total	874	10.3	3	1.2	0.304	74.50%	3.7	3.77	17.1
RP Padres
Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Drew Pomeranz	56	11.7	4.3	1.1	0.311	76.60%	3.57	3.72	1
Emilio Pagán	63	10.5	2.8	1.4	0.297	75.10%	3.8	3.93	0.8
Mark Melancon	62	7.9	2.7	1	0.311	73.80%	3.79	3.93	0.5
Keone Kela	58	11.9	3.5	1.1	0.301	76.40%	3.35	3.42	0.7
Pierce Johnson	57	10.6	3.9	1.1	0.305	74.20%	3.74	3.77	0.4
Tim Hill	53	8.7	3.2	0.8	0.307	73.40%	3.57	3.76	0.3
Craig Stammen	46	8.2	2.4	1	0.309	72.60%	3.72	3.73	0.1
Matt Strahm	44	9.1	2.7	1.3	0.302	73.40%	3.95	4.14	0.2
Ryan Weathers	38	6.7	3.7	1.2	0.307	71.40%	4.6	4.81	0
Austin Adams	34	13	5	0.9	0.309	78.20%	3.2	3.41	0.1
Dan Altavilla	22	10.8	5.1	1.2	0.301	73.90%	4.15	4.33	0
Adrian Morejon	20	10.6	3.7	1.1	0.315	75.10%	3.67	3.76	0
Taylor Williams	14	9.2	4.2	1.1	0.31	73.10%	4.18	4.32	0
Nabil Crismatt	10	8.8	2.9	1.4	0.305	72.30%	4.29	4.38	0
Javy Guerra	5	8.8	3.6	1.1	0.304	72.00%	4.12	4.11	0
Anderson Espinoza	5	9.8	4.3	1.3	0.312	69.80%	4.54	4.51	0
Mason Thompson	3	6.6	5.7	1.5	0.302	69.30%	5.8	6.01	0
Total	584	9.8	3.5	1.1	0.306	74.30%	3.76	3.89	4.3
ALL Pitchers Padres
Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Yu Darvish	184	11	2.7	1.2	0.302	75.30%	3.46	3.51	4.1
Joe Musgrove	164	9.2	2.3	1.2	0.306	73.10%	3.87	3.9	3.2
Blake Snell	146	11	3.5	1.1	0.301	76.30%	3.42	3.55	3.1
Dinelson Lamet	123	11.8	3.5	1.1	0.306	75.10%	3.5	3.49	2.7
Chris Paddack	122	9.4	2.2	1.4	0.302	73.50%	3.88	3.97	2
MacKenzie Gore	75	9.6	3.8	1.3	0.304	73.70%	4.13	4.32	1
Drew Pomeranz	56	11.7	4.3	1.1	0.311	76.60%	3.57	3.72	1
Adrian Morejon	59	10.6	3.7	1.1	0.315	75.10%	3.67	3.76	0.8
Emilio Pagán	63	10.5	2.8	1.4	0.297	75.10%	3.8	3.93	0.8
Keone Kela	58	11.9	3.5	1.1	0.301	76.40%	3.35	3.42	0.7
Mark Melancon	62	7.9	2.7	1	0.311	73.80%	3.79	3.93	0.5
Pierce Johnson	57	10.6	3.9	1.1	0.305	74.20%	3.74	3.77	0.4
Tim Hill	53	8.7	3.2	0.8	0.307	73.40%	3.57	3.76	0.3
Matt Strahm	44	9.1	2.7	1.3	0.302	73.40%	3.95	4.14	0.2
Austin Adams	34	13	5	0.9	0.309	78.20%	3.2	3.41	0.1
Craig Stammen	46	8.2	2.4	1	0.309	72.60%	3.72	3.73	0.1
Ryan Weathers	51	6.7	3.7	1.2	0.307	71.40%	4.6	4.81	0.1
Reggie Lawson	9	8.2	4.9	1.4	0.307	70.90%	5.09	5.22	0
Dan Altavilla	22	10.8	5.1	1.2	0.301	73.90%	4.15	4.33	0
Taylor Williams	14	9.2	4.2	1.1	0.31	73.10%	4.18	4.32	0
Javy Guerra	5	8.8	3.6	1.1	0.304	72.00%	4.12	4.11	0
Nabil Crismatt	10	8.8	2.9	1.4	0.305	72.30%	4.29	4.38	0
Anderson Espinoza	5	9.8	4.3	1.3	0.312	69.80%	4.54	4.51	0
Mason Thompson	3	6.6	5.7	1.5	0.302	69.30%	5.8	6.01	0
Total	1458	10.1	3.2	1.2	0.305	74.40%	3.72	3.82	21.4

TeamBatPitWARDodgers30.12151.1      Yankees27.921.349.2      Padres22.421.443.9      Mets21.121.342.4      Astros28.612.541      Blue Jays26.214.841      Twins25.414.840.2      Braves2316.439.3      White Sox19.31837.3      Angels22.513.636.1      Nationals17.617.435      Red Sox2113.834.8      Phillies18.41533.4      Athletics20.612.633.2      Rays19.113.732.8      Brewers15.316.732      Cleveland17.81431.8      Cardinals16.714.130.8      Cubs18.310.929.2      Reds11.215.827.1      Royals14.611.726.3      Giants12.612.925.5      Mariners12.11325.2      Diamondbacks12.811.924.7      Marlins10.31222.3      Tigers9.410.419.8      Orioles10.7818.8      Rockies5.611.216.7      Rangers312.715.8      Pirates6.88.915.7

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 30, 2021, 1:36 pm

So excited for the season to start!   More than any since 2015, and more than that year.

BUT... not trying to be negative Nancy, but think like 2015, some of the expectations are getting a little out there.   100 wins?  I hope so.  Potential is there, but that's a big ask.  As exciting as this year should be, the "on paper" juggernaut we appear to already have for 2022 makes me drool even more.  Entering the season I've got 3 main concerns:

1.  Short term:  Surviving the first 10 games.  Simply need to stay & get healthy.  Should be a boost in 10 days.  I know we all want to go 6-1, 7-0 the first homestand, but I'm totally fine with 4-3.  6-4 first 10 games I'll be ecstatic, 5-5 is OK.  But HAVE to avoid being 3-4 games behind LAD after 10.
2. Minor:  Can our Backup "OF of INFs" work all season long.  Our #4-6 "OF" are really INF by trade.  O'Grady really the next "true" OF #7 by a hair to Marcano's incredible ST.  Only other guy close is Ona, who so badly needs playing time, but may be hurt yet again.  I know, the "imminent" Abrams conversion may (should!) start this season, but it still all feels thin THIS season.  Profar improved in LF in his 1 month there, but no gold glover.  Mateo & Marcano obviously have the speed & have made some nice plays, but lack experience.  Even with loss of Pham, could be in a better place next season with devlopment of existing guys, Profar under contract, etc.  Definitely a chance we see anywhere from a minor to a major trade to address this position @ deadline.
3. Major:  Starting P depth.  This is the biggie.  I pulled this from somewhere:  Most playoff teams use anywhere from 10 to 12 starting pitchers in a season, with as many as seven or eight making 10 or more starts.  Yikes!  More teams than ever might do this in 2021 off the short season with IP concerns.  But we are exactly 8 deep, then fall off a massive cliff; I had Baez #9, Nix #10 both out for year & beyond.  We're still in a better place than majority of teams in league with "real" options to #8, but there is no wiggle room remaining for injuries, poor performance, etc.  These bottom of roster (& beyond) injury losses may seem pretty minor on O.D, but could really come back to haunt.