Quote from Brian Connelly on March 25, 2021, 10:56 am

I think Pads "want" it to be Pagan for 2 reasons:

1.  They like the idea of LH Pom as setup guy in 8th sandwiched by 2 RHP.  But more importantly,
2.   He'll be here next year, but Kela & Melancon probably won't.  Also, both K & M have "games finished" incentive $.

Helps to know if Pagan can be "the guy" next year.  What Pads saw after he came off IL healthy last year makes them think he can.

I'd probably say:  Pom > Pagan > Kela > Melancon on sheer "stuff".  But Kela a history of running "hot"/emotional (not always a bad thing in good RP, but maybe not the closer).  Melancon the opposite; calming presence like Stammen.  Even though Pom may be best & is highest paid, better use may be high leverage moments in late innings vs the 9th.

He got tagged yesterday, but I just have a feeling Kela will have a good year & be a consideration for re-signing.

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2021, 12:00 pm

Clearly the closer role is one that has to be won given this group ... so maybe some "testing" continues into the early part of the season. Even if one is anointed at some point ... might see the Padres shift horses if at any sign of weakness give the alternatives will be close behind.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 25, 2021, 1:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2021, 12:00 pm

Clearly the closer role is one that has to be won given this group ... so maybe some "testing" continues into the early part of the season. Even if one is anointed at some point ... might see the Padres shift horses if at any sign of weakness give the alternatives will be close behind.

I agree, this decision will linger into the first couple of weeks into the season. It is really difficult to simulate the closing scenario in ST. If these guys are coming into the 9th inning in spring, they are facing guys who are not to the caliber of the guys that they will see in regular season games.

Tingler may have an idea of how its going to pan out. Then will make some adjustments as the real bullets start to fly.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 26, 2021, 10:55 am

"Givens" over the 162 game season:

• Padres will frequently need 9 guys in the pen / 6 SP = 14 P's = "only" 4 bench position players
• 25 y.o. Ha-Seong Kim & his contract+ posting fee is going to be on roster over 21 y.o.  Tucu Marcano

Neither should be true on Opening Day.  BUT the fact that team would have to live through 10 games (including 3 in Texas with a DH) before voluntarily recalling anyone optioned down, makes it extremely likely they do go with 9 in bullpen, 4 on bench.  If DH is added at the last second before season starts, this is a certainty.

•  9th P in pen is probably never going to directly alter the outcome of a game.  He's there to soak innings in games that are already won or lost.  He's extremely important for the duration of the SEASON, but the 1st game of the season is his lowest value point in time.  Yes, the 9th P gives 1 more option, but quality-wise (especially with other better P's on IL) it is a compromise the team is being forced to make over long season.  5 guys on bench vs. 4 dramatically increases options for different "game on the line" situations that might arise (assuming no DH).
• Even in 162 game season, every game is critical since competing for NL West with LAD.  HAVE to take the approach of trying to get every little edge for every single game & series.  I think it's obvious that 1st game & series a 5th bench player would give Pad s> advantage than a 9th bullpen guy.  This is especially true b/c it makes more sense to have an "almost there" recovering from injury player like Grisham NOT be on IL, than a bullpen P in same situation ( IL until 100%).
• There's a confluence of many factors that convinces me Pads should go with Marcano over Kim on O.D:

1. If Profar were having a semblance of normal ST @ .250 BA/ .300 OBP or even .200/.250, I'd probably be OK with Kim on OD roster.  But Profar's spectacularly poor hitting combined with Kim's (now up to NO XBH in 88 PA combined) is MAJOR cause for concern.  These 2 ARE your primary pinch hitter & spot starters; can't use the backup C if it's a 4-man bench.  Why NOT ride the uber-hot hand into O.D. for 10 days with Marcano?
2. The health status of Grisham.  Pads really want him on O.D. roster.  But may not be ready to play every day.  Likely pushes Profar into CF some days.  Grisham will be rusty at plate.  Like Marcano off bench PH those days
3. Biggest:  Staying in Peoria in (some of) April is the IDEAL "only time ever" situation for Kim to acclimate & get in a groove in a low pressure/no travel setting:  Has up to a month to get tons of AB's, tons of time in OF.  Traveling in AAA getting 4 AB's/ game from May on will make his acclimation to U.S. & MLB harder not easier; he needs max AB in sim games and reps in OF in practice setting.  I think shifting Kim to OF with 6 days left in ST is nuts... they're putting too much on his plate.  If Kim makes OD roster and struggles, and THEN has to be sent down, the opportunity to go to the complex settting in Peoria will be gone.  I STRONGLY feel Pads are trying to "force it" with Kim to MLB roster, when the reality is not only does he maybe need more time to adjust; but you have the guy who has had the best ST in all of MLB already on the roster as an alternative, AND your other key bench guy (Profar) having an atrocious ST.

Option rules probably preclude going with a 5-man bench, even though it would probably help team's chances for first 1-2 series; 7 game homestand.  COULD do it by having Crismatt selected as 9th P for the 1st road series @Texas, or sooner if needed.  But I do like the idea of Marcano making O.D. roster just until you do go to 9 P's OR for first 10 games to just give Kim that extra time to acclimate in the Peoria ST setting.    Really can't have both Nola & Grisham just off injury on O.D. roster if only a 4-man bench... too risky.

Quote from fenn68 on March 26, 2021, 1:20 pm

A lot of “if” issues to resolve before opening day and set a roster and the “out of option” contingent play a factor for short run and long run calls.

Not a big question with Nola ... if IL then Campusano is #2 ... otherwise Campusano is optioned.

IF Grisham NOT IL ... and a 4 man bench .... the next two are easily Profar and Mateo (can’t option and can handle both INF and OF).  That makes the 4th bench player between O’Grady - Kim - Marcano. I would go with O’Grady who can be optioned at any point and give Kim and Marcano development time in AZ.

Side: I do think they may keep Kim over O’Grady ..... more on a “scouting” view than performance evoking the dismal ST by Ohtani when he first arrived that turned around as the season started. Coin flip.

The 13 man pitching staff (8 RP) sort of depends on injuries (Lamet is likely out and Strahm/Guerra are out) but we don’t now definitively on Adams and Williams (or anyone else). Even with five starters (Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Paddack, and Morejon) and a pen of Melancon, Pagan, Kela, Pomeranz, Hill as the first five ... the remaining three out of Stammen, Johnson, Altavilla (all out of options) as are Adams and Williams. A 9 RP mix can preserve all if one of Adams or Williams is healthy or include Weathers if they want another LHRP option.

I guess part of the equation is if they keep a 5 man bench to open the season ... will that force them to DFA a RP if the pen is at 8 and there are not enough IL RP. That may be an issue for the pen later in the season. That has to be balanced with who would be DFA (are they really projected to be effective) vs. other future options such as Thompson, Knehr, Crismall, et al then factor in when Strahm may return.

Basically a lot of dominoes.

Quote from LynchMob on March 27, 2021, 10:34 am

Making his first appearance in 17 days on Friday night, Drew Pomeranz looked an awful lot like, well, Drew Pomeranz -- the Padres' most dominant reliever last season.

Pomeranz worked a 1-2-3 fifth inning against the Mariners, striking out two. He punctuated one with a fastball and one with a curve -- his two elite offerings. Pomeranz hadn't pitched since March 9 after experiencing some minor forearm tightness during a bullpen session, but should be fully available for Opening Day.

“[It's] obviously important for him to get some game action before we get up and going,” Tingler said. “I like the way the ball came out of his hand. Equally impressive, I like the way he found his curveball.”

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/ryan-weathers-open-to-any-role-on-padres-staff

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 28, 2021, 10:16 am

and a pen of Melancon, Pagan, Kela, Pomeranz, Hill as the first five ... the remaining three out of Stammen, Johnson, Altavilla (all out of options) as are Adams and Williams. A 9 RP mix can preserve all if one of Adams or Williams is healthy or include Weathers if they want another LHRP option.

Pomeranz returned to action, but so did Taylor Williams.  UT projection described Adams as "certain IL".  Assuming no setback for Pom that's great news.

Stammen is a lock.  That's 6.  They need length/spot 6th SP/ AND LH; really believe Weathers makes it filling multiple needs.  That's 7.  Realistically leaves:  Pierce Johnson, Williams, Altavilla, & Nabil Crismatt competing for the last 2 spots.

If Pads had more off days early like a 'typical' start of season schedule, might be tempted to sneak Johnson on there; but I think it's too risky with the compressed early schedule.  Logical thing to do is go with out of options Mariners trade guys Williams & Altavilla for last 2 spots.  BUT there is a $ consideration with Altavilla.  If DFA before opening day Pads pay only 25% of his arb salary.  Seems like no big deal, but looking ahead, it's hard to see how Williams or Altavilla hold those roster spots for long.  As soon as: Johnson, Adams, & Strahm are healthy, they are likely the guys getting pushed out.  Only way would be some combo of phenomenal performance not seen before AND more injuries hitting Pads pen.  Otherwise, the IL guys returning relatively soon are going to bump these guys off roster anyway, since they're out of options.

As such, I'm going with Taylor Williams & Nabil Crismatt as my last 2 guys in O.D. pen, with Pierce Johsnon to IL and Altavilla DFA.  That way at least have 1 guy in pen that can be optioned down (& up).  Altavilla good chance ends up sticking in AAA (not claimed).  If he can find the form he was in late last year he could definitely back to MLB, but it's not there in ST.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 28, 2021, 10:24 am

UT also says both Nola & Grisham likely IL...  Makes Profar & Caratini de-facto starters...

4-man bench:  Campusano, Kim, Mateo, O'Grady (L)

Pretty much have to keep O'Grady over Marcano to have the extra OF, and I'm more comfortable with Marcano not being there since O'Grady serves as the LH PH too.  But I do still think it's a mistake to not temporarily either go with a 5-man bench OR have Marcano up for Kim so Kim can have the advantage of extra work in the Peoria complex (vs. AAA season) setting.

When Grisham & Nola back you wind up with the overly RH bench of: Caratini, Kim, Mateo, with only Profar (SH) from "left".  But Grisham LH "every day" in lineup.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 28, 2021, 10:37 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 28, 2021, 10:24 am

UT also says both Nola & Grisham likely IL...  Makes Profar & Caratini de-facto starters...

4-man bench:  Campusano, Kim, Mateo, O'Grady (L)

Pretty much have to keep O'Grady over Marcano to have the extra OF, and I'm more comfortable with Marcano not being there since O'Grady serves as the LH PH too.

When Grisham & Nola back you wind up with the overly RH bench of: Caratini, Kim, Mateo, with only Profar (SH) from "left".  But Grisham LH "every day" in lineup.

 

Caratini is a switch-hitter along with Profar for the bench to balance Mateo and likely Kim.

Probably over reading ST usage ... but neither Profar nor Mateo have received a lot of INF reps and then mostly at 2B plus Cronenworth has not move to SS very much. All have played SS but not be worked there while Kim and Abrams have might suggest the preference for Kim sticking as the reserve INF (he has worked SS-2B-3B).

Padres have spent much time figuring out whether Pham or Profar is first into CF if Grisham out with maybe Mateo getting the primary back-up reps. O'Grady ... although billed as CF capable .. has appeared more often in a corner OF or 1B. That too may suggest the pecking order for next up CF.