Quote from fenn68 on June 19, 2021, 8:39 pm

Don't rule out them re-signing Pham ... Padres (Preller) really like him and amazing as it is he is back to hitting at this pre-Padre level. With Pham DH/LF and the very likely rookie debut of Abrams in 2022 .... not sure the Padres need to pursue another bat ... unless it is a great deal.

Not as high on Campusano as some but we may be closer to needing a ML catcher than is being discussed. Worried Nola (31) is just not built to be a catcher over the long haul .... maybe designed for utility including 1B/DH. Caratini is only controlled through 2023. No one left near term in the minors.

I am high on Hassell and look to him potentially replacing Myers in 2023 (maybe 2024). Also, look for Hassell to vault up the prospect list after his start this season.

As much as I would like to get Reynolds .... resigning Pham and keeping Campusano and Hassell seems like a better long term strategy.

I will defer to the scouts .... but getting really concerned with the prospect status of Gore and his control problems maybe delaying his ML debut and maybe his real upside. Maybe he becomes less "untouchable" in the right deal?

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2021, 1:12 pm

Trade deadline on July 30th … just over 3 weeks.

Some indication that the Padres would be willing to pick up salary (to go over their $174MM payroll) and potentially breach the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (currently at $204.1 vs the first threshold of $210MM).

First point is that the acquisition’s pro-rated AAV is used (not current year salary). So, potentially the Padres could add (on July 30th) an $18MM level player +/- and not breach the luxury tax in 2021. If the player is a “rental” no issue going into next season.

However, it the acquisition is a multi-year player … could be an issue in 2022 but for now we don’t know the luxury tax rules coming out of the next CBA If the current rules remain … likely the threshold goes up by ?. However, the Padres’ luxury tax payroll does not adjust much … give or take, arbitration increases for Musgrove, Pagan, Caratini, Paddack, Hill, Adams, Strahm, Lamet should offset the FA of Pham and Melancon. Then if they re-sign Pham (as I would expect) they should be very close to the tax threshold … before any new adds.

Tricky not knowing the rules in the new CBA … but if consistent going forward … Preller may try to win now and add in 2021 breaching the limit but then avoid doing so again in 2022 … two consecutive penalty years is costly. Alternate approach is to not breach in 2021 and over the winter make adds to breach in 2022 knowing that Myers is off the books in 2023 dropping them under (maybe).

Preller does like multi-year controlled options … maybe he shoots for players not under long term deals (high AAV) and focuses on players pre-arb or in arbitration with a low AAV … might cost better prospects.

A lot of aspects to being a GM beyond just get player “X”.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 5, 2021, 1:39 pm

I don't see us "not" making at least a couple smaller moves....if not a larger one.

At minimum add an arm or two(remember only 60 games last year...gonna be a long summer) and improve the bench(Moreland type?)

I don't see adding a starting position player(where would he play) unless AJ has just lost all confidence in Myers and/or Hosmer......doubt it.

I guess adding a good 4th outfielder is an option but a guy like Gallo I'm afraid will cost more in prospects than AJ wants to part with.

I just don't see any way we get a Gallo/Ketel Marte/Kris Bryant level player......especially any that are more than a rental like Gallo/Marte.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2021, 3:47 pm

Just my guess (or bias) but think RP will be top of the target list … maybe two.

Padres are wearing down the pen and can only be successful with the likes of Ramirez, Norwood, Crismatt, Northcraft, Camarena (all journeymen) for so long. Plus Melancon may be starting to fade.

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2021, 4:54 pm

I can also see them going for a “rental” bat for the bench (replace Mateo).

Most of what I am hearing that “rental bats” are the least costly to acquire at the trade deadline with most teams focused pitching (SP and RP) pushing their costs up.

Since the Padres don’t have that deep a stock of prospects to deal (ones that other teams want), they will need to keep most to replace the natural attrition of the current roster or for that “blockbuster” deal next winter.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2021, 3:49 pm

As the trade deadline approaches ... listening to a lot of discussions at the national level.

My sense is that there is not a lot of top notch SP/RP on the market ... and potentially a lot of buyers. Sure some names we recognize and a couple currently running hot but also all with some major cautions. A lot of buyers ... few sellers of quality ... formula for major over pay by some team probably close to the deadline.

My question is whether Preller wants to play in that game? Maybe he takes the alternate approach and adds offense (normally lower cost at the deadline ... especially for rentals). With limited prospects he wants to deal ... he may be more bang for the buck with that approach.

We seem aligned that replacing Mateo is a good idea. Match that with low production out of Hosmer. Consider that Hosmer who should be productive in the middle of the line-up has rung up:

APR: 320/384/464 (100 AB)

MAY: 247/301/351 (77 AB)

JUN: 172/226/230 (87 AB)

The trend is worrisome and the flat out slash line in JUN is horrible. Getting late to gamble that Hosmer will get out of this trend. They are not going to just bench Hosmer but adding a RHH bat to play 1B part time and PH might do more for winning than the marginal arms that may be available.

IF they get someone with 2022 control ... works for the DH arrival.

Who? The Padres could have the advantage of targeting a bat while all others are outbidding each other for arms.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 22, 2021, 8:30 am

Possible trade candidate for SD, Nick Castellanos has microfracture in his right wrist. He can not swing a bat at this time, and is not sure how long he will be out. And with CIN only two games out of the NL Central race, not sure whether they will buy or sell.

So probably need to scratch Castellanos off our possible trade pick ups.

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2021, 9:11 am

Have been listening to a number of the "analyst" on MLB Network discussing the coming trade deadline ... most seem to think deals will be right at the last moment. With eight days to go still a number of teams are not committed sellers (limiting the options for the clear buyers).

1. RP: sense is that Kimbrel is the only elite closer (and will cost a ton given a number of teams are interested) ... after that Pitt's Rodriguez but he is more a set-up man ... then some guys who can help (or maybe not).
2. SP: don't think Scherzer is going to be dealt and the only real upper rotation arm is Berrios and since he comes controlled in 2022 MINN may not deal and if they do thing BIG return give the demand. All the other options are more bottom of the rotation with risk they don't maintain their 1/2 success (if any).
3. Hitters: here there are some enticing pieces and, going on history, if he is a rental, should be not that expensive to add (note Gallo is NOT a rental).

If that assessment is spot on, then my view of the Padres needs

1.  SP that can post up every 5th start and go 5 innings reasonable effectively ... maybe rentals such as Pineda, Davis, and some others ... not going to cost a major prospect. After watching Knehr and hearing that Lamet may be August under limited innings plus the unknowns of Snell / Paddack ... need a reliable body.
2. RP (of course every team does) ... not Kimbel but run down the best of the others based on internal evaluation (might find a sleeper that fits the Padres) ... if a rental the cost likely is a mid range marginal prospect.
3. Bench Bat (maybe). Somewhat is dependent on whether the Padres return to 14 pitchers for the rest of the season or 13 and how they view Nola's usage. IF the go back to 12 position players (4 bench) ... Caratini, Kim, Profar are locked in leaving only Mateo on the bubble. Given the usage of the pen (and innings out of starters) plus with Lamet and Strahm likely back by late August ... 14 pitchers seems more logical. If I could land a quality rental to supplant Mateo ... should be very low cost but be a better PH option and maybe a RHH option for Hosmer.

For me it seems to boil down to some smaller "rental" moves because the spots they need big moves don't have options available.

Depending on the CBA status this winter, that is when we may see the next BIG move especially if the DH is coming and with Pham / Melancon FA.

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2021, 4:19 pm

The trade deadline season opens with 8 days to go … Minn trades Nelson Cruz to TB for two AAA SP (TB prospect #10 and #17). They are already 24-25 years old. TB also gets an un-ranked prospect from Minn.

Cruz (a DH only and a FA after this season) was one of the major bats on the market and should be a major add for TB as they make their AL East run.

Maybe that sets a bit of the level of talent to get rental bats … plus takes a buyer off the market.