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2021 In Season Trade Ideas
#1 · May 18, 2021, 12:35 pm
What?! Season is 25% over, so not TOO early to figure out what Padres need to do to get over the top!
I see 2 main needs: 1) Rental Starting Pitching 2) Rental or Longer term LF with power. This is pre-emptive strike for #1
Padres get:
- SP Jon Gray
Rockies get:
- RP/SP Miguel Diaz
- RP Javy Guerra (IL-60)
- RP/SP Michel Baez (IL-60 TJ Surgery 3/2021) or LHRP Jose Castillo (IL-60 TJ Surgery 3/2021)
- A Ball or lower: SP prospect (excluding: Justin Lange)
From a sheer talent/control perspective, this trade is overwhelmingly in favor of Colorado, who are going to (FINALLY) blow it up & get on a different timetable from Pads & LAD. It's a no-brainer for the team going nowhere fast to save $ & pick up talent. The reasons for the overpay are:
- "MLB SP" at deadline is going to cost a huge "covid" premium this season; most teams will want/need it, but even bad teams will be very reluctant sellers, since they have to survive the season & protect P's health too.
- Selling low on the injured Guerra & especially Baez.
- Division rival
- Not REALLY ideal structure for Rockies, who might prefer a more traditional Top 100 prospect + a backfill arm. Making up for it with quantity other teams won't be able to match
By my personal rankings (includes the prospects we traded out this offseason), this is trading our #14 (Baez), #25 (Guerra), "#30 if regarded as a prospect" Diaz, & #32-33 Jagger Haynes or Brayan Medina. Simplistically, this is approaching the prospect trade cost for 3 years of Darvish & Caratni: (just me again) #19 Owen Caissie, #21 Reginald Preciado, #22 Ismael Mena, & #26 Yeison Santana. But those guys are true "years away" prospects. 3 of 4 here have significant MLB playing & service time; all 3 will be > 2 years service time when healthy.
Pads solve the "where are the IP going to come from" problem with: losses of Morejon, Baez, even Nix plus IP limitations of Lamet, Weathers, & Gore (AND Snell's simple inability to go longer). Best case: drastic change of scenery for Gray in contract year rejuvenates him & he delivers 125 much needed IP as a very good #4 SP. His career 4.50 ERA & 1.34 WHIP all in Colorado benefit from PETCO & improve to <4.00 ERA & 1.25 WHIP. His arrival pushes usage of Lamet & Weathers to more strategic (openers?) / high leverage bullpen use; or sometimes an extremely good 6th SP combo duo; preserving them for playoffs. We pay 4.75 MM to Gray, but offset by about 1.25 MM out (75% of 3 minimum MLB salaries) = 3.5 MM Net for an established vet SP
Rox get outstanding so far, oozing potential but innings limited Diaz to backfill some of Gray's IP... low pressure environment to try to develop as SP. Also a perfect landing spot for Guerra (out of options) to inevitably struggle, but could be late inning guy or even closer. Same for Baez; eventual opportunity to play in MLB lacking in SD. Much better able to carry the injured guys into offseason (when added back to 40-man roster) displacing less talented roster placeholders if neccy. Likely Rox insist on one "good" true Minors SP prospect; hurts, but he's 4-5 years away from MLB.
I know we just hammered Gray last night, but I like the idea of doing this sooner than later with 34 games in 35 days starting 5/21. I feel if we don't act soon we're really risking an injury/overuse to someone (including most overworked pen in MLB). If that happens, we might have no choice but to pay even more in trade to get SP in a ridiculous seller's market. I also like the idea of pre-emptively taking one of the most obvious trade candidates off the market early to drive up the cost for other teams later 🙂
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MrPadre19
#2 · May 18, 2021, 12:59 pm
I just vomited in my mouth a little. A 4 for 1 trade for Jon Gray!?!?! I wouldnt trade Diaz straight up for Gray. I would think a Guerra straight up for Gray, and move onto someone talented like his brother, Sonny!
#3 · May 18, 2021, 2:07 pm
Wearing my COLO GM hat ... no deal.
Main reason is way too soon to pull a deal for that group of bodies. IF I wait until July to deal ... highly likely a lot of other teams are in the bidding with the return being better.
The only player being offered that would appeal is Diaz but expects that the Padres may value Diaz (cost and control with upside) more valuable than Gray even up.
I put negative value in a trade with the inclusion of Guerra. Baez, or Castillo ... but all are on the 40 man roster, 60 day IL, zero (or limited ML success). Might take one as a “throw-in” but would not sway my decision.
As the COLO GM ... would make an “early deal” if the buyer really overpaid my expectation of the return in July ... and probably think a Diaz for Gray equivalent deal will be an minimum.
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Side: did a quick look at Gray’s career numbers ... so-so. What I was looking for is a strong set of results AWAY for COORS ... but no he is the same pitcher at or away from COORS. Might give innings ... not sure about results.
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Even with “controlled innings” and uncertain health: Darvish; Snell; Musgrove; Paddack; Lamet; Weathers already gives them 6 to limit innings ... plus Diaz / Stammen / Crismatt can give mid-inning depth should fine for workings the needed innings. Don’t forget Gore.
Might be more inclined to pursue another RP ... maybe a long type ...
#4 · May 18, 2021, 2:19 pm
Might want to hold my better trade chips until I have a clear picture of the needs as they exist prior to the trade deadline.
LF may become a bigger issue if Pham just does not pull it together ... none of the bench options are really who you want in LF in the playoffs. Padres may have to go big for either an impact rental or an impact multi-year player (especially if you expect the DH in 2022).
Given Tatis’ history of injury ... SS (INF) may emerge and that “rental” may be Trevor Story at a much bigger price than Gray.
Basically too many potential holes ... too few asset to deal (or want to deal) ... too early to predict while having one of the best records in MLB.
#5 · May 18, 2021, 3:00 pm
We have the best pitching in baseball.
Give me a left fielder.
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LynchMob
#6 · May 18, 2021, 3:57 pm
Even with “controlled innings” and uncertain health: Darvish; Snell; Musgrove; Paddack; Lamet; Weathers already gives them 6 to limit innings ... plus Diaz / Stammen / Crismatt can give mid-inning depth should fine for workings the needed innings. Don’t forget Gore.
Might be more inclined to pursue another RP ... maybe a long type ...
Our SP depth has been decimated with Morejon, Baez (long RP type) & maybe even Jake Nix all done for year. It was NOT "part of the plan" to have to get 30+ IP out of likes of Crismatt (emergency SP only), Neil Ramirez (marginal as it gets) & Diaz... who has genuinely intriguing upside, but had major knee surgery in July 2019, out all last year, so innings limited this year, then out of options next year, which could be a challenge in 2021 with SP looking DEEP on paper.
BUT we've been really lucky knock-on-wood with top 3 SP. As our team stands right now, if we were to lose any of our top 3 SP for anything but a minimum IL stint we would be in BIG trouble; particularly if it happened sooner than later (before Gore & HIS limited IP are ready). We would then have to deal from necessity, and would get taken to the cleaners to do so. Don't think we need a playoff SP; just competent innings eater to chew up as many IP as possible to better leverage/preserve all our guys with limited innings. Basically picturing Gray as the band aid to Clevinger next year (plus Lamet, Weathers, & Gore should all be way more "full go": ELITE SP depth on paper).
It's true both that Rox might want more of a true lower minors elite prospect package, and/or that they may feel price will rise by waiting. But they run the risk of getting nothing at all if Gray gets hurt (or has many more nights like last night!) before then. They put out trade feelers in ST...
Doesn't have to be "Jon Gray"; but he's one of a few obvious SP rentals on a bad team. Don't think we really have the ammo for a playoff caliber SP rental... who do we trade out of Top 100 as the starting point?
I agree LF is an issue, but am wondering if Tatis is the answer in the short term if Pham doesn't get untracked, and Ha-Seong Kim does AT ALL offensively. I've advocated for Tommy last year & this, but his defense has really gone downhill; could live with it if he's hitting or slugging, but he's GIDP 🙁 Tatis would be a hold your breath adventure, but he would be better on day 1 out there than Pham is right now. Not Non-tendering him so far looks like worst mistake of offseason. He's teased at turning it around, but it needs to happen in this long stretch coming up or Pads have to bite the bullet & move on...
#7 · May 18, 2021, 4:14 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on May 18, 2021, 3:00 pmWe have the best pitching in baseball.
Give me a left fielder.
Look at projected Pitching usage on "2021 Season" thread...
Good news is Lamet & Diaz will get more of those IP attributed to "Others"... but I just don't know if the depth is there to get through season.
#8 · May 20, 2021, 11:37 am
I think our biggest issue is LF. Pham is not cutting it. Profar is a nice back up piece, we need more. I would prefer a LH LFer, however, that might difficult to find.
How about Bryant from the CHC? There is a low percentage that he will resign with CHC. He is playing all 3 OF positions this season. SD gets Bryant, CHC gets Pham (money swap and CHC comes out better than SD), and then some mid level prospects in the range that they got for Darvish.
#9 · May 20, 2021, 1:36 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on May 20, 2021, 11:37 amI think our biggest issue is LF. Pham is not cutting it. Profar is a nice back up piece, we need more. I would prefer a LH LFer, however, that might difficult to find.
How about Bryant from the CHC? There is a low percentage that he will resign with CHC. He is playing all 3 OF positions this season. SD gets Bryant, CHC gets Pham (money swap and CHC comes out better than SD), and then some mid level prospects in the range that they got for Darvish.
That would be interesting but since Bryant (for 1/2 season) and a FA after the season and Darvish had three years control ... the pieces probably would be less than with Darvish. Rentals (especially if pushing back salary to the seller) should not command that much quality.
Sort of depends on other buyers .... but not looking as though the Cubs are not going to resign Bryant .... so expect a QO (unless eliminated in the new CBA) and a draft pick at a cost of $10MM (assuming the trade offer was mid-season). Doubt they want to take Pham (and the remainder of this salary) unless the prospect(s) in play were a lot more than mid-level.
My best guess would be a deal where the Padres take the full remaining salary of Bryant for two mid-range prospects. Probably some other team in the hunt would go that route and keep their prospects.
#10 · May 20, 2021, 1:45 pm
Sort of a "lower end" alternative to support LF .... Robbie Grossman now with Detroit.
Detroit is really bad ... Grossman is signed for $5MM/yr (2021-22) ... switch hitter ... not a great bat but a very good OBP guy. He seems to be currently playing better than Pham ... would be a complement to Pham ... would be around and insurance for 2022 when Pham departs and the DH arrives while Preller tries to fill both slots.
(note: I know it is early but Abrams work so far in SA is very very impressive and given Preller's history ... very good chance Abrams is the starting LF in 2022 ... but still need insurance).
Given their situation .... probably could nail Grossman for those two (or one) mid-level prospect.