Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2021, 6:43 am

Crismatt up .... Northcraft down.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2021, 12:52 pm

This won't happen, but I wonder...   if Kim starts for Manny today (good chance)

1. Manny, Tatis, & Hos will each just have had a day off PLUS an off day.   Very likely to all start all 6 games next 2 series.
2. 5 of 6 SP @ SF & @ Rox are RHP.
3. Pads are Avg or better power @ 5 positions:  1B (debatable), SS, 3B, CF, RF.  Nola should "fix" C.  The 2 that lack power are:
   • 2B:  100% Jake + 100%  Kim:      11 XBH (3 HR) in 186 PA.  But Jake is going to get all/most of these starts vs RHP
   • LF:  100% Pham + 100% Profar:   6 XBH (1 HR) in 198 PA.  Has to be worst in MLB.

Would the Padres:  Option Kim & Recall Brian O'Grady  Either for 10 day minimum, or at most 12 games around the off days?  Would need Kim back for the 20 games in a row stretch.  Goals in order of importance:

1. Commit to giving O'Grady 3-4 starts in the next 6 games vs RHP to try to inject some power into corner OF.  Other games have a viable LH bat with some pop on the bench to PH.  Can he provide a spark?  Viable MLB player?  Down the road platoon option?
2. Keep Kim's 3 days in a row playing momentum going by letting him get AB every day in AAA instead of sitting on the bench to come in as a PH vs RHRP late in MLB games; try to get that bat going!
3. Just while Kim is down, shift Marcano to 90% starts in OF to get more exposure there.

Kim has contributed a lot the last 2 (3?) games, but I don't see how he can get the bat going if he doesn't play more than he's likely to the next week.  O'Grady can't do any worse from a power standpoint than Pham & even Profar have.  Could play both he & Profar sometimes for an all LH OF vs RHP.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2021, 11:05 am

Jorge Ona just had Arthroscopic surgery on R. Elbow.  Must have been waiting for inflammation to go down.  6-8 weeks recovery puts him at back to playing: mid-late June to early July.  But since he's on MLB IL, when he does start to play, he'll go out on rehab assignment, which I think can be 20-30 days.

So bottom line is he will go on 60-man when Paddack returns, but he will remain on it until mid-late July.

Only guys who could conceivably come off 60-man prior to that are:  Matt Strahm &/or Javy Guerra, but no indication at all that they will.   Dan Altavilla & Taylor Williams have already been on IL for 20 (+) days now...

... no imminent 40-man roster crunch.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2021, 12:03 pm

Agree that Ona may not resurface as a roster issue maybe 3 months (if at all this year) ... Padres will have some luxury of “nursing” the recovery in AZ before even going on a rehab assignment if it becomes eight weeks before he restarts baseball activities.

Both Guerra and Strahm are head scratchers .... Guerra “sprained elbow” March 1 and Strahm’s knee surgery last October .... Padres (as usual) are not disclosing anything ... but zero word on either resuming any baseball activities. Both of them could late season at best.

IF any of them are taken off the 60 day in a few months ... could have someone else ready to go on (not ruling out either Altavilla or Williams as long term issues).

I will watch for strategic movements around the trade deadline if the Padres want to add some pieces for the pennant run.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2021, 12:51 pm

.... it's been brought up before that when the Pads  WILL have a roster crunch is the 2021-2022 offseason.

Shortly after World Series, teams have to activate all guys on 60-day.  Pads have a 48-man roster with only 3 true FA's:  Pham, Kela, & Melancon.... who right now would have to say we want him to return.   That's 45 + mortal roster lock Gore = 46.

There are 6 fringy RP &/or out of options types, so the issue isn't getting to 40.... it's navigating FA in offseason BEFORE being able to put a player BACK on the 60-IL at the beginning of 2022 Spring Training.  We already have 3 guys in this category:  Jose Castillo, Michel Baez, & Adrian Morejon that aren't going to pitch until mid-late 2022.  A premium FA (OF?) may not be willing to wait to make their deal official until after ST starts like lower tier FA sometimes do on "handshake agreements".

Sooo I would not be surprised if our current IL including 60-day were almost all trade possibilities at the deadline; interesting cheap talent for non competitive / rebuilding teams in 21 & 22.  Probably not central pieces, more likely 2nd piece in a deal.

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2021, 1:38 pm

Not sure how much the end of the current CBA and unknown of the new CBA will factor in ... or at least a guess by the teams on how it may impact player control / rules. One rumor is the union push for dropping 6 control years to 5 control years. Off the top of my head that would impact Strahm.

Would expect that the league will try to reinstate the 13 pitcher / 13 position player mix ... so one less potentially in the pen.

Tie both of those with the number of pitching options ... and logically the team will want  to preserve the best for now and the future ... maybe the release / DFA / trade some players that are on the ML fringe but out of options and lower on the probability list to make the 26 man and opt to protect arms from the rule 5 and stashed in AAA for 2022 with longer control and three option years. That also applied to avoiding a DFA of rostered prospect who still has options for 2022 and would / could get claimed.

Doubt anyone significant will get dropped no matter which direction they take ... but could see some that generate a “why him” vs ? A lot of bodies to move around but the core is pretty stable ... and at least RP are pretty interchangeable.

Long way until have to cross that bridge ... so feel OK navigating the season.

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2021, 2:37 pm

A couple of random thoughts on setting the post-season 40 man:

CBA expires on Dec 1 ... what does that mean for conducting the Rule 5 which is usually in mid-December . .. it is part of the CBA?

IF the Padres give a high probability for a 2022 work stoppage .... should they be more motivated to part with players with their last control year being 2022 given the short useful life and be more motivated to retain longer control options?

Will the CBA expand or contract the 40 man limits, option rules, even the existence of the Rule 5 ... union wants players to FA sooner so all in play. Teams will not know the answer until after the 40 man is set under the current rules ... tricky.

Owners really really want the money for expanded playoffs (and don’t want to give much to the players) .... so a good bargaining chip for the union to get concessions.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 13, 2021, 2:14 pm

With Tingler saying all five Padres players were asymptomatic, Hosmer, Mateo and Profar being placed on the IL indicates they are not fully vaccinated. The MLB health and safety protocols allow for a vaccinated player who is found to be in close contact with a positive person to return to play immediately if they do not have symptoms.   SDUT (Kevin Acee)

I did not catch this distinction as opposed to when Myers was briefly scratched from a game as a starter as a "close contact" on 4/28 (when Paddack went on IL Covid+), but Myers did NOT go on IL & was cleared same day; this means he must have been vaccinated.

I was holding out HOPE that some or all 3 could return tomorrow.   I HOPE Acee's wrong .... but I doubt it.  If they aren't back tomorrow, it's pretty hard for them to stand there & say "we did everything we could" to win the division... but Paddack & Myers can.   Tatis?  If he got vaccinated, we'll probably find out.  If he didn't, more likely to just hear nothing.

When ST started in Feb, it was still extremely challenging to get a vax appt even just 65+ yr olds.   I still felt strongly that MLB should have vaxxed during intake all players/staff who wanted it, so time to be fully immunized before season.  Would have only been a few thousand doses; even at that time would not have delayed anyone from gettng the vax by even 1 day.  Even all 4 levels of Minors probably 5K doses players & staff.... BUT still would have been a "cutting in line" perception/negative publicity issue

Quote from fenn68 on May 13, 2021, 2:33 pm

That seems to be the consensus on the rules although with the contact tracing for a non-vaccinated player heard they may only have to stay quarantined for 7 days (with no positive test). So MAYBE Hosmer - Profar - Mateo come back 3 days earlier than Myers and Tatis with 10 days.

The “no symptoms” report is a good thing.

We will never get any detail who first (and how) he got the virus ... and the Padres are saying none broke protocols.