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2021 In season Roster Moves
#161 · September 24, 2021, 10:37 am
Given a 26 man roster and the DH in the NL after the dust settles on the new CBA, the composition of the active roster is likely 13 pitchers/13 position players or 12/14, given the strength or weakness of the pitching staff. As far as position players go, barring any trades, we probably already have 11 of the 13 slots committed with only 3 OF's on that potential roster - Profar, Grisham and Myers. Padres have used the DH slot to rest everyday players and I think that helped in the 2020 season success. So my guess is that we should expect them to add at least one, maybe two, OF's to the 40 man that has the capability of being an everyday player and supplanting Profar, Myers or Grisham in that order. Grisham is frustrating because you can see the talent but it only flashes 2-3 times a week vice that constant production you need from an everyday starter. Padres may give him one more year and then he'll go the same route as Margot and Renfroe. Unless the Padres somehow pull off a miracle and get Franmil Reyes back as an everyday DH, look for some shakeup in the current 11 bodies that seem to be locked in to the 2022 active roster - Nola, Caratini, Hosmer, Cronenworth, Frazier, Tatis, Kim, Machado, Profar, Grisham and Myers.
Caratini is more valuable to us as a player than in trade; Hosmer and Myers will be difficult to move; Kim and Profar may have no-trade clauses and have salaries too high to attract much attention; so Frazier is the likely trade chip in combination with one or more of our pitchers/prospects. Don't think they'll trade Cronenworth, who is so valuable in so many ways to this team. Padres really wanted Grisham to show he was that 4th pillar of the team, but he has not shown yet that he is capable of doing that. I expect Kim will show his value when getting more playing time next year.
Based on that prospective scenario, I'm thinking we don't see Abrams until mid-2021 at the earliest. For sure, OF is our weakest position in the minors and top prospects beyond Abrams not ready for 2-3 more years. Don't have a clue which OF is available in trade but that seems our greatest offensive need that should be addressed after the healthy arms for the 2022 season are sorted out. But that's another story. Don't think we'll go after a free agent OF because of the salary cap and need to use the remaining space to solidify our pitching.
#162 · September 24, 2021, 10:53 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2021, 8:56 amI did see that Abrams is going to the instructs … no idea how healthy or whether he will be actively participating in field activities. However, it is a good sign that his recovery is on track for him to be a full participant in ST.
I actually expect Abrams (non-roster this winter) given his elite prospect profile and the shortage of position players post Pham and probably with the DH to be playing for the Padres at some point in 2022. One key injury away if they use him either in the INF or the OF.
Remember Tatis spent a 1/2 season in AA … got injured … then was a starter for the Padres the following season (albeit on a very bad team). So, Abrams … not out of the question.
Will be interesting to see if Abrams gets time in the OF at instructs.
#163 · September 24, 2021, 11:40 am
Last I heard (and this could change) the plan by MLB is to return to pre-pandemic rule of limiting the active roster to 13 pitchers … so, 13 position players.
Given the Padres ML candidates that likely leaves 2 slots in play for the position players … I am assuming they non-tender Marisnick with the OF of Profar - Grisham - Myers and bench pieces of Caratini - Kim - Frazier. I guess we should factor in Tatis to the OF - Cronenworth to SS and Frazier starting - Profar to the bench. Either way 2 open slots … just might alter the skills they seek. Also, we really don’t know IF they replace Tingler will the new manager shuffle players / positions as was done in 2021.
Could see Campusano in the mix … C/DH which could in turn free Nola from C to DH/1B. However a bit of a risk that Campusano can hit in 2022.
I am finding it hard to ID even one “impact” bat to add via trade considering the quality / lack of depth of trade chips and the salaries of better veterans. FA have this issue of quality leads to big money deals. Preller is going to have to be creative and get really lucky. (Doubt he can deal Hosmer and / or Myers without paying most of their contracts AND giving up a prospect … for little in return),
All the pre-amble leads me to not expect a major add this winter and increases the odds that Campusano and Abrams have an early shot for 2022.
#164 · September 24, 2021, 11:50 am
Did hear some commentary that to maintain the CURRENT payroll level the home attendance needs to be around 2.7 million (about 2.1 million this year) … that considers tickets, concessions, et al.
The it appears that once the salary changes from FA, contracted increases, and arbitration increases are considered … 2022 payroll will not be all that much different from 2021. So, not a lot of room to add big salaries.
Have to add in the unknown from the CBA potentially working to a lower luxury tax level and a stiffer penalty for violation (the trade off for a payroll minimum). If negotiations go as usual … might not know that until ST (at best) and hindering any deals not knowing where that sits the team vs. penalties.
#165 · October 1, 2021, 5:16 pm
Prior to tonight’s game, the #Padres selected the contract of RHP Pedro Avila from Triple-A El Paso, transferred C Austin Nola to the 60-day IL and optioned RHP Shaun Anderson to El Paso.
Avila will wear No. 60.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 1, 2021
#166 · October 1, 2021, 6:26 pm
Wonder if adding Avila to the 40 man (and starting him tonight) suggests they still see some upside and would have added him to the 40 man anyway for the winter?
Otherwise, would have thought they would have added Martinez instead (he is starting for El Paso tonight … and doing well) and is likely to be added to the 40 man for the winter.
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I have seen some other teams DFA some players in the past couple of weeks to make room for call-ups who will be around for 2022 … bit surprised the Padres have not gone that route unless there is some secondary issue.