Quote from BoosterSD on September 21, 2020, 7:20 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 21, 2020, 6:28 pm

Couldn't resist this:   Our 3 MVP candidates Machado & Tatis have had Amazing seasons so far:

• Machado already has 27 XBH... Tatis tops him with 28... in just > 200 AB so far.  One of their big name MVP competition?
• Mookie Betts:  "only" 26 XBH just > 200 AB.

Oh yeah, the guy I & others pounded the table to trade for Betts & eat 10's of millions of $ of his salary...

• Wil Myers:   29 XBH.....         in 181 AB!!    OPS:  Tatis .931   Betts  .973   Machado . 980  Myers .989

Wil Myers is pounding the snot out of  the ball:  logging an XBH every 6.25 AB!

Wil Myers SHOULD absolutely have a lot of consideration for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year. Although the argument that will go against Wil, is that he cant do it when he is the main guy on the team. That his success is because he is riding the coattails of Machado and Tatis.

Probably makes reason while he wont/shouldnt be traded. Thats a lot of money for a "third" guy on the team. And Hosmer is the "fourth" guy for a lot of money as well.

 

Quote from hoffy51 on September 21, 2020, 7:25 pm

If every team in the majors got rid of the players who weren't playing up to the money they are getting, they would probably have a tough time fielding a team.

Conversely, some guys a waaaaaaay underpaid. If the GM is smart, it seems to balance out.

In reality, I don't care about the money Myers and Hosmer are making. We are winning, and without them, we wouldn't be IMHO.

Quote from Ben Davey on September 21, 2020, 8:27 pm

The Myers contract was awful going into this year at 3/67.5.  But after an MVP caliber year 2/45 doesnt sound horrible.

After this year Hosmer will be on a 5/81 contract, which also isnt great, but he can opt out after 2022 and if not his salary goes down $8 a year.  Having Myers/Pham off the books, and Hosmer being paid $8 mil less, will allow for a massive bump from Lamet and Tatis.

Even after listening to Wil Myers be interviewed after clinching made me think Myers has a bit of Khalil Greene in him.  He almost will do anything to not be in the spot light.  Weird, but the team works well with him in the background.

Quote from Ben Davey on September 21, 2020, 8:37 pm

BTW even with 3 legit MVP candidates, I will say that the MVP is Profar. Really the secret to the Padres' success has been the bottom of the order.  How many late inning rallies have started after Profar walked or got a hit?  While Tatis/Manny were driving them in it feels like the last month it was the bottom of the order (always Profar with some combo of Grisham, Cro, Castro, Myers) starting off the rally.

That alone makes 2020 special.  So many times in the last few years 7-9 would be easy out, Hedges, and pitcher, and you would just hope someone would draw a walk or get hit.  Its so great to actually be fairly excited when the bottom of the order is up

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 22, 2020, 8:09 am

Quote from hoffy51 on September 21, 2020, 7:25 pm

If every team in the majors got rid of the players who weren't playing up to the money they are getting, they would probably have a tough time fielding a team.

Conversely, some guys a waaaaaaay underpaid. If the GM is smart, it seems to balance out.

In reality, I don't care about the money Myers and Hosmer are making. We are winning, and without them, we wouldn't be IMHO.

Agree 100%.  Preller ALWAYS explores value ("what are my guys worth right now") in the offseason so he has a baseline to work off at the trade deadline if neccy.  And I get the concept of "selling high", and I get that Wil Myers in a 162 game season almost certainly doesn't sustain these #s, but Hoffy you're right....

Trading Myers' production this year would be exactly like trading Machado or Tatis; which would be ridiculous to even consider.

Yes, it would save $, but the production hole created in the lineup could not realistically possibly be filled, and some of the $ "saved" would just have to go back to the same position.

This is what Preller envisioned for Myers when he traded for him all those years ago.  I thought Myers needed to be one good player on a team full of them, not "the" guy,  and he's had stretches of weeks or even a month in the past where he looks like an MVP offensively, but he's NEVER sustained to his capability like this before.  I sure never could have predicted this outcome; doubt even Preller could have.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 22, 2020, 8:21 am

Quote from Ben Davey on September 21, 2020, 8:27 pm

The Myers contract was awful going into this year at 3/67.5.  But after an MVP caliber year 2/45 doesnt sound horrible.

After this year Hosmer will be on a 5/81 contract, which also isnt great, but he can opt out after 2022 and if not his salary goes down $8 a year.  Having Myers/Pham off the books, and Hosmer being paid $8 mil less, will allow for a massive bump from Lamet and Tatis.

Even after listening to Wil Myers be interviewed after clinching made me think Myers has a bit of Khalil Greene in him.  He almost will do anything to not be in the spot light.  Weird, but the team works well with him in the background.

Those look like the "Sportrac" #'s that prorate their signing bonuses.  Only matters for the very few teams near the tax penalty threshold.  Myers (15 MM) & Hosmer (5 MM) (and Manny too - 20 MM) have been paid 100% of their signing bonuses.

So Myers forward contract is either 2/41 or 3/60 (club option).  If 2022 looks anything close to this season, picking up the option would be heading into "no-brainer" territory.  Coming into this season, it was 100%+ NOT to be picked up.

Hosmer's forward contract is either 2/40 or 5/79 (player opt out).   His injury marred season still encouraging.  Makes it more likely he opts out of a 3/39 deal after 2022, vs. coming into season looking like he was near "untradeable" due to getting "stuck with him" those last 3 years.

Food for thought:  Not impossible both 2021 (Covid/No fans?) and 2022 (CBA negotiations lead to strike or lockout) seasons don't get played out as 162 games.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2020, 8:41 am

Remember from a cash flow perspective Myers was $2MM (2018) and $3MM (2019) .... even if his overall performance was not living up to the image of the total contract ... he did more than earn his salary for those years.

Now that he is earning $20MM (2020) his performance as elevated ... he is earning this new level.

So, only conclusion is that the Padres were under paying prior to this year which depressed his performance and then consider if they increased his salary how much better he would perform going forward. 🙂

Now accept that and I have a Bolivian silver mine to sell.

Quote from hoffy51 on September 22, 2020, 9:24 am

I personally think it has a lot to do with the coaching and attitude of the new staff.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 22, 2020, 10:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2020, 8:41 am

Remember from a cash flow perspective Myers was $2MM (2018) and $3MM (2019) .... even if his overall performance was not living up to the image of the total contract ... he did more than earn his salary for those years.

Now that he is earning $20MM (2020) his performance as elevated ... he is earning this new level.

So, only conclusion is that the Padres were under paying prior to this year which depressed his performance and then consider if they increased his salary how much better he would perform going forward.

Now accept that and I have a Bolivian silver mine to sell.

LOL.  No, this is actually a really good point!   With the unexpected proration this year (only 7.4 MM vs 20 MM), by my math, at end of 2020 season, the Padres will have actually paid Wil Myers "only"  31.5 MM since he's been here!  That's 5 "full" seasons, or a skewed "AAV" of only 6.3 MM/yr.  Almost half of the total (15 MM) was the signing bonus spread over 3 years.

For all his ups & downs and inconsistencies (a HUGE part of which was him being asked to do too much in the wrong spot on the field & in the lineup), he has delivered BIG value over that AAV.

Obviously, it will be higher $/AAV going forward, but both '21 & '22 at risk of losing games played (Covid/empty stands, then CBA/strike)

Could argue in hindsight some of the late years $ should have been shifted into the earlier years of contract, since Padres did "nothing" through 2019 anyway (i.e. more $ to spend 2020+), but in the above context this contract looks really smart right now.