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2020 Season
#401 · August 28, 2020, 11:57 am
Side note: saw a stat that SP are only going 6 innings or more less than 30% of the starts ... down from just over 40% last season and down from about 60% 10 years ago. The shift of team philosophy from starters to relief pitchers with starters going all out for as long as they can then a series of mix and match relief pitchers. I can see some logic if a team is among the first adopters of that (and can accumulate the good RP) but if all 30 teams take that strategy ... just not enough good pitchers to go around.
Well put! It's the cumulative effect of trying to avoid EVERY SP in MLB's dreaded "3rd time through the order". It brings up a recurring glaring weakness of Pads SP's developed internally: lack of a 3rd pitch. Paddack (TJ) just getting there. Lucchesi hasn't really. Lamet (TJ) sort of doesn't. Elite SP's can set up hitters for later by changing their pitch mix. Can't do that if you only have 2 pitches! Don't know how they can't simply force guys to mix pitches more in the minors. NO ONE should be throwing 80% fastballs in the minors as a SP!
It's just faulty logic IMO to say that you can Always go to the (inherently inconsistent) bullpen & just magically run out 4-5 different guys a night and they're "all" going to be on. It has happened for us a few huge wins, but the odds are against it; which has been demonstrated repeatedly. Reliable SP like Zach Davies are increasingly worth their weight in gold. A lot easier to get there if you have 3-4 pitches beyond "show me", so if 1 isn't working on a given night you can change your pitch mix & still be effective.
#402 · August 28, 2020, 12:09 pm
I missed Mariners series out of town. (Obviously) catching up now. Padres need to formally start platooning Profar & Naylor in LF.
It's a tiny sample in a tiny season, but Profar in 73 PA vs RHP: .156 / .286 / .266 = .551. That's putting an offensive player who despite being a SH with a favorable matchup is WORSE than Austin Hedges overall (.160 / .250 /.360 =.610)... in Left Field!!!
No mas! Platoon Profar playing LF vs LHP (.752 OFS in just 35 PA), but with LH Naylor getting the bulk of the starts vs RHP.
Profar's splits this year reinforce what they showed last year; he's not really playable vs RHP despite being a SH.
#403 · August 28, 2020, 12:26 pm
Agree on Naylor getting more LF time ... actually now that he is in better shape he hasn’t looked that bad defensively. If it plays out ... maybe Naylor in full-time since given scouting projection his bat should play against both LH and RH pitching. Also allows more DH time for France (maybe against both LH/RH) and Profar becomes the super utility piece.
Given Profar’s bat has not come around and only a 27 games to play ... might as well go with greater use of Naylor / France for both 2020 production and a more thorough assessment of their roles in 2021 when Profar goes via FA. Sort of a strategic win-win.
#404 · August 28, 2020, 12:40 pm
Profar is a frustrating head scratcher. One of the most entertaining guys on team to watch; always seems to be in conversation or "deep thought" with himself. Usually smiling & upbeat. And he HAS helped the team with his patient AB's... but just seems to run into one down the line like Hedges once in awhile... and other than that, just not much to show for the incredible # of 3-2 counts he gets into with still relatively low K rates.
He seems to accept his role, but we'll see if that's still true if it's more of a true bench guy. Part of this year's team, seems to help chemistry & patience helps rest of lineup, but just feels like he could/should do so much more....
Still. With Cronenworth's emergence, Profar (vs LHP) would be a better full season 26-man fit in 2021 (remember Mateo still there out of options) than LH Garcia.... if it was at a MUCH lower price than 5.7 MM.
#405 · August 28, 2020, 1:34 pm
I sure can see Profar on this team as a super utility guy ... he seems to be a very positive part of the team and is more than willing to take on every role. In this era of valuing versatility he is that guy. Just at what price?
If Pham is back and there are not other roster adds ... he is up against Mateo, France, Naylor, and Garcia ... don’t see a minor leaguer ready to emerge yet. Problem is that the Padres may like them all. Garcia is the veteran presence that is very effective vs RHP (not Profar’s strong suit) ... France / Naylor make a compelling DH duo ... so maybe that puts Mateo on the bubble.
IF the Padres see themselves in the playoff hunt next season ... over 162 games with expected injuries ... is Profar more valuable at a reasonable price than a league minimum Mateo? Mateo has not done anything in the ML and not getting much work this season with the Padres.
#406 · August 28, 2020, 3:17 pm
I love Greg Garcia as a SD homegrown who would rather be here than anywhere & is a consummate pro.
But I always thought Cronenworth would replace him next season. Just not to THIS level of effectiveness.
GG is a great patient AB. Good PH. But too little power to be "ideal" PH. OK at best defense; nowhere near the range/arm etc of JC. Not good vs LHP. And really holding your breath if he plays defensively anywhere other than 2B.
With the configuration of the Padres team, I'd probably take Profar's similarly patient if less effective overall (OBP) PA's but with some occasional pop, can steal a base, etc. But it's really the effectiveness vs LEFT handed pitching and better positional versatility (OF) that would lead me to push for Profar or someone similar for utility & allow GG to go non-tender.
Worth mentioning Mateo COULD fill that role too, but he's way more unproven. Think he's guaranteed a long look next Spring training, but that's it. He'll have competition.
#407 · August 29, 2020, 10:44 am
Pretty amazing that Tatis is currently the NL favorite for MVP yet Machados’ numbers are nearly identical.
Manny’s OPS is actually 1 point higher...1.027 vs 1.026 at the moment.
We could literally have the #1 and #2 vote getters for MVP if they keep this up.
#408 · August 29, 2020, 11:13 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2020, 10:44 amPretty amazing that Tatis is currently the NL favorite for MVP yet Machados’ numbers are nearly identical.
Manny’s OPS is actually 1 point higher...1.027 vs 1.026 at the moment.
We could literally have the #1 and #2 vote getters for MVP if they keep this up.
Start worrying about Tatis and Machado splitting the votes and the East Coast votes going to Mookie Betts.
Less than a month to sort this out ...hopefully both stay hot.
#409 · August 29, 2020, 12:00 pm
I'd try Olivares in LF before I put Naylor out there. He's just not built to be out there.
Happy to have France and Naylor flip flop at DH.
Maybe even give Mateo a shot in LF? He'll be a great deal cheaper than Profar next year.
#410 · August 29, 2020, 12:07 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on August 29, 2020, 12:00 pmI'd try Olivares in LF before I put Naylor out there. He's just not built to be out there.
Happy to have France and Naylor flip flop at DH.
Maybe even give Mateo a shot in LF? He'll be a great deal cheaper than Profar next year.
I think Mateo is one of maybe 5 people in MLB that make that catch last night in LF.