Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2020, 11:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 4, 2020, 8:53 am

Glad MLB is going with 28 man roster vs 26 rest of the way.  30 was too high, but 26 feels too low in this weird year.

The Taxi squad bumping up from 3 to 5 means it's likely the 2 guys who come off active roster just keep traveling with the team.

But who fills out the 5 man going forward will be interesting to watch.  Does Patino, Gore, Morejon "make" this soon when getting close, or keep them at the alternate site to keep making "starts" on a regular basis?

Did they actually announce this change?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 6, 2020, 1:51 pm

13 games into the MLB season @ 8/6 AM, Padres are.... #1 in MLB in Runs Scored.  Granted, 8 teams are way below the 12-13 the rest have played, but still... did you EVER think Pads would EVER be in this position?  This is with:

• Hosmer on IL having only played 3 games
• A 26 y.o. MLB debut rookie with 1 appearance @ 1B in Minors filling in for Hosmer
• A starting CF who was just selected to MLB August 1st last year
• Tommy Pham & Manny Machado a combined 5 XBH in>100 PA's
• Starting 2B @ .084 / .241 / .162 > 40 PA's
• Starting C @ <.100 / .150+ / <.125  > 40 PA's
• "DH"*  2 XBH, 1 BB > 40 PA's                 *France, Naylor, Almonte
• Another MLB debut rookie position player:  Olivares

.... there's actually a lot of room for improvement or at least holding ground if/when hot start guys regress...

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 6, 2020, 2:21 pm

With all the important disclaimers ... small sample size obscuring the reality of hot / cold streaks by players, injuries,   the mix of home / away advantages, and differences in the quality of opponents ... Padres are overall providing more offense than we have seen in years. Still informative of how the Padres stack up against the rest of the NL by position to assess some POTENTIAL room for upgrade to get into (and progress through) the playoffs:

Position ... wRC+ (offense) ... dWAR ... WAR overall ranking in the NL

C .................... 15th .................... 3rd ............... 15th (last is last)

1B ...................  1st ....................  2nd ...............  1st (Hosmer hot start / Cronenworth great filler)

2B ..................   9th ................... 9th ................. 7th (not good but not as bad as thought comparatively)

SS ...................  1st ....................  5th ................  1st (I guess we keep Tatis)

3B ................... 12th ..................  8th ................ 12th (it is what it is)

LF ...................   8th .................. 14th ............... 13th (surprised)

CF ...................   1st  ..................   3rd ................ 2nd (even better than I thought)

RF .................... 3rd ................... 12th ............... 3rd (Myers is hot)

DH ...................  8th ........................................... 8th

Looks like an offensive mix that can make the playoffs ... but another bat would help.

SP is near the top of the NL but RP is near the bottom BUT if we put the small sample size up against the consensus of the Padres having an elite RP corps ... fair to expect this group to regroup and still be good for the bulk of the season.

Padres are 7-6 but the pieces looks strong enough to garner a playoff spot ... and I expect the 2nd place in the NL West legit target (not betting unseating the LAD).

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 7, 2020, 12:42 pm

I have a feeling we will know where this team stands as far as competing for the playoffs by Sept 9th.

From 8/28-9/09 we play 12 games against Col/LAA/Hou/Oak with most on the road and 7 of those against the Rox.

The schedule the rest of the way gets a lot easier with most games against SEA and SF.

So it may seem obvious but the next 30 days will tell us how good we are and if we are still in 2nd place or close on 9/09 we should be in great shape with many winnable games left of the final 15 games.

 

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2020, 6:43 am

Early thoughts on the Playoffs.

Biggest surprise is the Marlins.

Surely they can’t keep this up?

If they do then that more likely means one of the WC teams will come out of the East.

But at the same time the poor starts by Cin and Milw. are helping our odds.

Then there’s the Rockies.

Normally I would feel certain their pitching won’t hold up.....but, already there are only 45 games left.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2020, 7:10 am

In the NL West .... sure looking like AZ and SF are headed for 4th/5th and expect LAD to just pull away. 2nd place gets a playoff spot ... so COLO is the one we should watch to ensure a playoff spot by getting 2nd but the way the rest of the league is currently setting up ... Padres if they keep winning are in good shape for a wild card.

Saw the Fangraphs projection and they have the Padres in 2nd in the West (well behind LAD) and just barely ahead of COLO. The key factor was SD has a much easier schedule than COLO (as Fangraphs sees it). Something like a 73% chance of the playoffs as I recall.

If SD keeps up the current winning pace they should be in ... and beginning to circle the matchups with COLO as key. Four games at the end of August in COLO and three games in SD early in September could be the decider of 2nd place or a Wild Card.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2020, 9:59 am

Of course 2nd place is the goal...but if not I’m still worried about the WC spot.

I’m pretty sure at least one of Cin,Mil,StL,Was,and Phil will not continue to play poorly.

We do have a nice schedule the last 15 games of the season so an advantage.

Hope we can just worry about beating Col and Az. And not have to worry about the last 2 playoff spots.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2020, 11:39 am

Keeping in mind that two teams get in from the East and Central (as the 2nd place team) and looking as though so far the Cubs and Atlanta look strong ... even if some of the others start winning ... that may be more getting them 2nd place and not effecting the wild card selection ... actually if they do that by beating the others so much the better.

Something to consider that because of the COVID related postponements Miami - StL - Phil and some others will end up playing a lot of double headers and consecutive games through the rest of the season .... might cause a lot of wear and tear on the participating teams ending up in more even spits in those games and maybe more losses when playing "fresher" teams. Maybe all the Padres wild card competitors will be dragged down while the Padres (and the West teams) have no such issue (so far).

Padres play .500 the rest of the way ... think they are in ... do better and knock out COLO even better. More worried about the Padres than the other contenders in the quest for the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2020, 12:31 pm

A bit of a follow-up (consider the Padres have played 14 games):

Miami has played only 8 games ... yes 7-1 but a poor team that should get exposed without the double headers, no off days. Expect them to fall apart by the end of the month.

Philadelphia has played only 7 games ... 3-4 .... will be very hard to score a lot of wins vs. better rested (and talent) in WASH and NYM both of which are also sitting on losing records. Add that playing the AL East will be no picnic for any NL East team. Going to be very hard for the 3rd place NL East team to even have a winning record.

ST Louis has played only 5 games ... 2-3 .... more games to play than days remaining in the season ... either they will be playing their 3rd string to survive or will burn out their first team quickly ... not a recipe to create a winning record.

What might also help SD is that only one team (OAK) in the AL West has a winning record ... a win is a win no matter who they defeat.