Quote from Brian Connelly on March 27, 2020, 9:53 am

Good article on The Athletic:  Basically players prioritized getting Service Time.  If there is no season; guys get the exact same MLB ST they got last year.  Paddack & Tatis get 1 full year, Morejon & Baez would each get 0.071 they received in 2019, etc.  Really benefits players who may not have received what they "got last year", even if a full season were played.  Of course some players who barely got any MLB ST last year would be "punished".   If I understood the article right, a shortened season still = 1.000 year of ST, with each game being prorated for a larger % than a normal 162 game season (what I assumed they'd do; but had to be negotiated).

But there was a cost.  ALL players get 170 MM total advance now ranging from 15K for min guys to 150K for contract guys i.e. Everyone from Machado down to Perdomo.  If there is no season, that is ALL they receive!  So big $ guys stand to lose the most.  Likely some type of proration for partial season.  Guys would lose same %, but big $ guys obviously lose more $$.

Some feel the players "capitulated" on the MLB draft, which is now going to be only 5 rounds, with suggested bonuses frozen for a few years going forward (that made Boras squawk), but owners were considering no draft at all!   This helps Padres & all lower rev teams getting those Supplemental picks.  Teams with bad farm systems though... yikes!

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 27, 2020, 10:00 am

2B Esteban Quiroz was traded to the Rays as the PTBNL in the Renfroe + X. Edwards for Pham & Cronenworth deal.

Makes sense (as does the release of G. Beckham); too many INF bodies @ AAA.   Interesting trade of OLD prospects:  Cronenworth is 26, Quiroz 28!   Now we just have to hope Quiroz doesn't outperform Profar/Dozier/whomever all year in MLB.... he could end filling a hole for Rays until Edwards gets there...

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2020, 11:00 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 27, 2020, 10:00 am

2B Esteban Quiroz was traded to the Rays as the PTBNL in the Renfroe + X. Edwards for Pham & Cronenworth deal.

Makes sense (as does the release of G. Beckham); too many INF bodies @ AAA.   Interesting trade of OLD prospects:  Cronenworth is 26, Quiroz 28!   Now we just have to hope Quiroz doesn't outperform Profar/Dozier/whomever all year in MLB.... he could end filling a hole for Rays until Edwards gets there...

Rays have Brandon Lowe at 2B ... younger and way better than Quiroz who most likely will be a AAA insurance policy.

This should give Cronenworth and Miller a full time run in AAA up the middle .... hopefully getting them ready for a run at the 2B role in 2021. Guessing both impressed the Padres (potential-wise) over Quiroz. Still TB must see the value in Quiroz to select him from what is usually a short list of PTNL candidates agreed on as the trade was consummated.

Profar and Dozier will be FA after the season and Garcia is not likely to morph into a starter ... so a lot may be riding on the development of Cronenworth and Miller.

Quote from JasonE135 on March 27, 2020, 6:43 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 27, 2020, 9:53 am

Good article on The Athletic:  Basically players prioritized getting Service Time.  If there is no season; guys get the exact same MLB ST they got last year.  Paddack & Tatis get 1 full year, Morejon & Baez would each get 0.071 they received in 2019, etc.  Really benefits players who may not have received what they "got last year", even if a full season were played.  Of course some players who barely got any MLB ST last year would be "punished".   If I understood the article right, a shortened season still = 1.000 year of ST, with each game being prorated for a larger % than a normal 162 game season (what I assumed they'd do; but had to be negotiated).

But there was a cost.  ALL players get 170 MM total advance now ranging from 15K for min guys to 150K for contract guys i.e. Everyone from Machado down to Perdomo.  If there is no season, that is ALL they receive!  So big $ guys stand to lose the most.  Likely some type of proration for partial season.  Guys would lose same %, but big $ guys obviously lose more $$.

Some feel the players "capitulated" on the MLB draft, which is now going to be only 5 rounds, with suggested bonuses frozen for a few years going forward (that made Boras squawk), but owners were considering no draft at all!   This helps Padres & all lower rev teams getting those Supplemental picks.  Teams with bad farm systems though... yikes!

I am so freaking pissed to see that we will be having 1 less year of control for both Paddack and Tatis. Now I REALLY wish we had kept them both in the minors long enough to get that extra year of service time on them! I am sure the Dodgers are angry about what this does with Betts too.

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2020, 6:59 pm

Everyone loses in one form or another ... just can’t be equitable for everyone when money is impacted.

Padres not only lose a control year on Tatis and Paddack but they go to arbitration on their regular schedule ... on the other hand arbitration is based on performance and missing a year will limit their awards ... on the other other hand money NOT paid to Myers, Hosmer, Machado will do a lot to cover that ... on the other other other hand no idea the monies lost for lack of attendance, concessions, and whatever happens with the broadcast / advertising revenues ... on the other other other other hand this may set up a stronger push to sign extensions for Tatis and Paddack.

Whew! An incredible set of moving parts. Then don’t forget the clubs and the union are nearing the CBA negotiations. Expect the next 3 years to be “interesting”.

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2020, 7:09 pm

Looks as though if the restart the season ... they will expand the rosters to 29 (maybe 30 on double header days). Would expect the adds would focus on pitchers given the short ramp up time and a good chance for a six man rotation (maybe seven) with double headers and maybe eliminating (minimizing) off days to maximize the number of games played.

I guess the debate of Quantrill vs Lucchesi  may be over ... both will start. The depth of the pitching staff will be critical given the expected usage ... maybe an advantage for the Padres.

On the flip side, the position players may be able to play the half season with minimal breaks ... starters play ... so bench choices may be altered to focus on veterans who may be more suited to very limited play.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 28, 2020, 9:46 am

Quote from JasonE135 on March 27, 2020, 6:43 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 27, 2020, 9:53 am

Good article on The Athletic:  Basically players prioritized getting Service Time.  If there is no season; guys get the exact same MLB ST they got last year.  Paddack & Tatis get 1 full year, Morejon & Baez would each get 0.071 they received in 2019, etc.  Really benefits players who may not have received what they "got last year", even if a full season were played.  Of course some players who barely got any MLB ST last year would be "punished".   If I understood the article right, a shortened season still = 1.000 year of ST, with each game being prorated for a larger % than a normal 162 game season (what I assumed they'd do; but had to be negotiated).

But there was a cost.  ALL players get 170 MM total advance now ranging from 15K for min guys to 150K for contract guys i.e. Everyone from Machado down to Perdomo.  If there is no season, that is ALL they receive!  So big $ guys stand to lose the most.  Likely some type of proration for partial season.  Guys would lose same %, but big $ guys obviously lose more $$.

Some feel the players "capitulated" on the MLB draft, which is now going to be only 5 rounds, with suggested bonuses frozen for a few years going forward (that made Boras squawk), but owners were considering no draft at all!   This helps Padres & all lower rev teams getting those Supplemental picks.  Teams with bad farm systems though... yikes!

I am so freaking pissed to see that we will be having 1 less year of control for both Paddack and Tatis. Now I REALLY wish we had kept them both in the minors long enough to get that extra year of service time on them! I am sure the Dodgers are angry about what this does with Betts too.

Hmmm...  obviously I can't say "told you so" in THIS unforseeable situation... but I've been meaning to post for 2 months on Service Time ramifications of Tatis vs. Paddack vs. Gore....   Here's the nutshell version.

Pads got a lot of "credit" last year for selecting Tatis to O.D. roster to not "manipulate" his MLB ST .... but it really was not a big deal.  The landscape for how teams handle POSITION players has COMPLETELY changed in the last 1-2 years:  Teams & players mutually benefit from an early "lockup" via extension.  Remember that Tatis was NOT a huge bonus baby like Morejon or Gore who are basically set for life from their signing bonuses.  He's made 700K + 1 year @ MLB minimum.  Now he's losing anywhere from "some" to vast majority of his income this year....   When things settle down, extension talk will "re-start", although question marks ALL over the place with what teams' financial situations will be.

Paddack is a COMPLETELY different story:  Him getting a full year of service time was a waste AND cost the Padres MM's of $$$ sooner AND more importantly a lost control year for a guy who as a SP coming off TJ is NOT a good extension candidate.

I KNOW that "Pads had no other options" and "Pads were competitive" (for 10% of the season, starting 11-5; backsliding to 41-41; falling off a cliff 2nd 1/2 esp after ASB), ""trying for.500", etc, etc.  That's not the point.  The point is:  Paddack had limited innings in his arm from Day 1 of MLB season...  he got optioned down for the minimum 10 days that don't count against MLB Service Time during the ASB to further rest / stretch out his appearances, THEN he got shut down early at end of a meaningless from a playoffs or even remote "contention" standpoint... earning MLB ST (& pay) for sitting on the bench.

My argument is really simple:  He could and should have been slowed down at the beginning of the season (coming off TJ) with a few IP / games in ST, an option to minors, make the 5th start in AA/AAA which is weeks after MLB begins; and then brought up to use the vast majority of the limited (140) total innings he had through the end of the season.  He could have VERY reasonably been down long enough to get another full year of team control as a Super -2 player when he's in his prime at still reasonable salary; Millions, but on a 1 year deal at that point vs. ALWAYS risky extension for a good SP.

Thats' why I was thrilled Padres put the "Gore making O.D. roster" talk to bed right from the get go, blatantly handling he (& Patino)  CORRECTLY by slow rolling them to preserve the maximum # of innings in their arms for potential use in MLB later in season.  It was absolutely imperative with Gore NOT to lose a MLB service time season the way they did last year with Paddack.

With each day of a shortened MLB season prorating to a larger % of MLB service time, Pads look well advised to try to keep Gore all the way below the Super-2 threshold completely.  It will take fewer days of the MLB season (assuming it happens) to do this than in a "normal" season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 28, 2020, 9:59 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2020, 7:09 pm

Looks as though if the restart the season ... they will expand the rosters to 29 (maybe 30 on double header days). Would expect the adds would focus on pitchers given the short ramp up time and a good chance for a six man rotation (maybe seven) with double headers and maybe eliminating (minimizing) off days to maximize the number of games played.

I guess the debate of Quantrill vs Lucchesi  may be over ... both will start. The depth of the pitching staff will be critical given the expected usage ... maybe an advantage for the Padres.

On the flip side, the position players may be able to play the half season with minimal breaks ... starters play ... so bench choices may be altered to focus on veterans who may be more suited to very limited play.

Big roster ramifications for many guys:  Guerra becomes a mortal lock.   I agree Quantrill extremely likely; with only 26-man roster, I thought it would be better to have Perdomo over Q with Cal making starts in AAA, but now with even 7-inning doubleheaders in future, I would keep them both.  That's 1 of the 3 additional players.

I've argued hard for 5 OF vs a 3rd bench 2B/INF.  It seems ludicrous with 29 guys and a compacted schedule with doubleheaders on turf, later in calendar, etc  to NOT have a 5th true OF.  So I give a 2nd of the 3 "additional" guys to Almonte or Lagares.  Hard to say how much weight Pads place on the early in ST showing vs hitting the reset button whenever guys get back on the field.  Agree more value on Vet getting little playing time over younger "better" player needing to play more... so 1 of Naylor or Cordero still goes down.

Assuming "only" 2 bench INF so far, there would still be 2 additional spots.   Near certain one would go to a RP; giving Pads 6 SP & 9 RP for first month or whatever.   Last spot?  One candidate could be Luis Torrens.  But a dark horse whose value rises a lot league wide is Breyvic Valera.  SH utility INF bat first (minors) guy would now get claimed off waivers with near certainty, to hole plug a roster for a month.  Still most likely he goes off roster to add Dozier (Munoz to 60 to add a non-roster OF), but he looks way more likely to start season in MLB somewhere with expanded rosters now.

Quote from fenn68 on March 28, 2020, 11:34 am

I would be surprised if all the three additional players were not pitchers ... potentially a lot of innings to cover due to the double headers ... few (if any) off days ... and pitchers with only a limited ST to build up endurance would not expect starters to go deep into games requiring a lot of bullpen usage that would strain a short pen.

If they stick with 13 position players max, I probably would opt to add veterans for the bench ... they are what they are and are not of the need of development plus probably can handle a very limited bench role better. In a short season the regulars will get max playing time ... at least initially. The "prospects" should be in the minors getting regular playing time for development and IF they are better than the veterans kept on the ML roster ... they get the call-up later in the season when maybe they do want to give some breaks to the regulars.

For me, drop Valera and add Dozier ... 60 day DL Munoz and add Lagares ... keep Garcia (LHH) ... the make room for Almonte (switch hitter) with a DFA or surprise 60 DL. Stick with the Hedges / Mejia duo sharing catching duties.

That puts all the "prospects" getting valuable  work in the minors (and they too will have limited ST). As needed later in the season, easy to DFA Lagares and Almonte to add a better prospect toiling in the minors. Plus, don't really want the "prospects" earning service time for sitting on the bench. For example, Cordero is already over 2 years of service time ... and unproven at the ML level ... not someone best suited for the bench.