Quote from MrPadre19 on June 4, 2020, 1:55 pm

Right but that doesn't explain how the player will have time to get ready if he shows up and tests positive?

If they are only playing 50-80 games....and Machado tests positive the day he shows up and can't participate for 2 weeks or more he will miss games to start the season.It would only take a few key players to miss only a few early games for it to make a big difference in this shortened season.

Especially Pitchers who need more time to get ready "again".

I just saw a report where five Alabama football players have already arrived and tested positive.

There's no telling how many MLB players are positive and don't know it or show any symptoms.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 4, 2020, 2:21 pm

I don't expect play to be up to a normal season's standards. Beyond the impact of a shortened ST2, losses due to players testing positive, I would expect a noticeably higher level of soft tissue injuries (IL stints) ... sort of the stuff they are seeing in the Bundesliga since their return with limited pre-season training. Not sure how motivated SOME players will be to play through injuries in a shortened season if it may hurt their future seasons (if they foresee any future seasons as expensive fringe players). Guessing a players performance in 2020 will not do a lot to earn him more pay in 2021.

The need for a serviceable "taxi squad" will be needed just to field a ML team ... not the formula for "quality".

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Looks like MLB is locking into a fixed total dollar amount for player salaries for the season ... consistent with "full pay per game for a 50 game season". If the Union wants to play 82 games ... fine ... but for the same amount of money in total .... zero financial upside to the players for playing more.

If MLB holds firm ... looks like a 50 game schedule will be the end game with the Union capitulating.

If you are really pessimistic, the Union rejects that proposal and the season is off with the potential of risking 2021 and both parties debate accelerating the CBA negotiations.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 4, 2020, 2:45 pm

OK, the plot thickens with an order of chickens!

Apparently the state of Texas is now saying (subject to local authorities) it will be OK to play games with fans in the stands (maybe 50% capacity) even if no other states allows fans in attendance.

Some time back MLB said games will only be played with fans only if every team can do that in their home ballparks ... the "balanced playing field" approach.

IF MLB holds to that ... hurts financially Texas and Houston and negatively impacts the fans who want to go to games. Would not be surprised if FLA, GA, AZ ... at a minimum ... quickly follow. How quickly with some other venues make the same move ... could have 1/2 plus allowing fans by the time the season starts.

How does that impact negotiations?

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 5, 2020, 6:09 am

We need to play in 2020.

For the obvious reasons of course but also because the short season and expanded playoffs lends to a better chance for a team like the Padres to make it into the postseason.

There are obvious teams who you would expect to make it anyway(Dodgers,Yankees,Astros maybe) but for teams like ours....and others on the fringe,we don't want to miss this opportunity.

Short season playoffs is still much better than no playoffs.

Would be typical Padre luck though if we did make it and fans couldn't attend!

But I would think by October there will be fans in attendance either way.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 5, 2020, 7:26 am

IF the 50 game regular season becomes the plan:

1. will they make some adjustment to the IL stays ... beyond going to a 30 man active roster to cover injuries? 15 days (think the plan was to return to that to minimize fake injuries to rest players) would be 30% of the season.
2. With only 50 games about every team is in the run for the expanded playoffs ... and we have seen bad teams that get really hot to start the season then collapse in the 2nd half ... good teams that start slowly then hit their stride mid-season .... dynamics are different now.
3. Will there be trades allowed? If so, will there be a trade deadline? Not sure on how the shortened season will impact the thinking of potential buyers and sellers if every team has a shot at the playoffs and while players are maybe not at peak performance.
4. With only 50 games (and if a player plays all 50 they get a full year of service) would teams be less motivated to put a prospect on the opening day roster? If everything is proportional, maybe they need to miss only 5 days or so to avoid getting that full year. More contentious would be a team "optioning" a young player off the active roster once they are out of contention to stop them from getting that full year (think the uproar if they optioned  Tatis, Paddack, et. al. for the last couple of weeks of the season) ... remember they have the 20 man "taxi squad" to backfill.
5. Under the 50 game plan the players on the active roster will get proportional full pay but what about the "taxi squad" ... can't see the owners going with MLB minimum, so what ... AAA money? How does that impact Dozier IF he is not on the 30 man active ... if not MLB type money he might not show up so does that have some impact on the Padres decision to add him to the 30 man active.

Going to be a lot of secondary decisions for teams trying to balance making the playoffs in a shortened season vs. their longer term future coupled with minimizing additional costs in a period of losses from the part of the season lost. Are some of those non-roster veterans (more expensive .. think Dozier) actually that much better than a lower cost rookie? Why "waste" control over any top prospect (but still ML unproven) by adding him to the 30 man active roster ... plus pay him league minimum. Keep in mind if a "veteran" is released they still have to pay him for the full season.

IF the season resumes .... going to be a lot of fodder for debate surrounding every move.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 5, 2020, 11:15 am

I assume there's little hope that players will show up to ST2 even if negotiating is still in progress?

We are coming up to the time something needs to happen.

Would it be possible to even start ST2 without an "actual" agreement in place?

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 5, 2020, 12:07 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 5, 2020, 11:15 am

I assume there's little hope that players will show up to ST2 even if negotiating is still in progress?

We are coming up to the time something needs to happen.

Would it be possible to even start ST2 without an "actual" agreement in place?

 

Highly unlikely ... no real benefit to either the owners (just incurring costs with potential for no payback) or the players (adding risk for no pay with the potential for no payback).

Keep hearing that the veteran players seem comfortable with 2 weeks of ST for the position players and generally the pitchers except for SP going deep into games (and that is why they expand the roster to 30).

So, if there is a July 4 opening, still a couple of weeks before needs ST2 to start.

On the other hand, IF MLB gets its 48-52 game schedule ... season really does not have to start until August 1 and playoffs could be on a "normal" schedule. Basically, a lot of options with a short season.

Saw some commentary that the 82 games schedule is not very likely and the 48 game schedule is also not likely ... but something as a compromise in the 64-66 game range ... that however would require mid-July start (and probably a July 1 ST2).

Sooner the better ... but expect ST2 to be short even if it compromises some player readiness ...

Quote from fenn68 on June 5, 2020, 12:27 pm

Another thought on the schedule ... as the number of games "shrinks". The idea of some schedule of "WEST" teams may not be needed (or desired).

At 48 games and 4 opponents in each Division ... teams can play 12 games against each opponent .... four 3 game series ... 2 at home / 2 away. At least a true Division ranking would emerge over 48 games not skewed by some uneven mix of games vs. non-Division opponents.

If they go up in games by blocks of 8 ... the equability within the Division can be maintained. So, scheduling 48-56-64 has the symmetry.

(this will not happen) but an interesting alternative is drop both the AL and NL West Division for one "WEST" with 10 teams ... play each opponent 3 at home / 3 away .... 54 game schedule but with an interesting variety of teams for the fans to watch. Given this is a "non-traditional" year anyway, avoids any issues with 2020 stats / champs getting integrated into NL/AL history. Playoffs from top 4 in each of the 3 leagues plus the 2 top 5th place finishers (if you want to stay at 14).

 

Quote from WindsorUK on June 5, 2020, 12:30 pm

50 games? What's the point?

If they start July 4th, surely they can go until the end of September, fit in 81 games, players get some money, owners earn a little?

Post season through the end of October, bigger pot of money there for ALL to share.

Why is this so difficult?