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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#391 · August 31, 2020, 12:14 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on August 31, 2020, 12:10 pmFrom the financial standpoint, doesn't look like they added much salary this year or next despite all the trades The most expensive guy is Castro and he is a free agent next year, as is Rosenthal. Moreland is up for 3M, Clevinger is making 4.1 million this year and covered by Arbitration like Altavilla. Nola, Allen, Adams are all pre-arb. Subtracted Hedges and his 3M salary but all the rest were pre-arb. With Richards, Profar and Yates also coming off the books should be able to handle the 3M for Moreland, IF they decide to exercise their option. Bottom line, financial flexibility not compromised next year by these deals.
If Pham really coming back in 2 weeks, then we'll probably just go with Profar/Mateo/Allen until he returns or even add Mejia into the OF mix once his finger is okay. Moreland actually has played the OF but don't see him doing that any more.
Correct. And the "decision" on Moreland is only 2.5 MM, b/c it's a 0.5 MM buyout. At the #'s he's putting up this year, it would be insane NOT to keep him; even if there were no DH next year (unlikely). Greg Garcia almost certain to be non-tendered will probably qualify for an arb salary in 2021 of at least 2.0 MM. So almost a financial "breakeven" next year replacing Garcia with Moreland.
#392 · August 31, 2020, 12:17 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:54 amQuote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 11:35 amQuote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:12 amQuote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 10:25 amQuote from hoffy51 on August 31, 2020, 10:16 amQuote from MrPadre19 on August 31, 2020, 9:50 amWord is we aren't yet done.
Rumor is negotiating for Josh Hader.
Why would the Brewers trade him?
I would have called that a media rumor ... but it has been around for a week or so ... so maybe some legs.
Why trade him ... he is about to earn some serious money going forward (and MILW is not the most cash secure team) plus dropping below .500 still may get them into the playoffs in the NL Central ... just not coming together as a good team that would go far.
Just may put him out there to get that big haul for the future ... and save some money.
For reference he is only 26 has 3 years more control (that is appealing) but is sitting with a $4MM base now and going to Arb 2 - Arb 3 - Arb 4. Given his track record going to be big money for a RP that could blow out his arm.
The obvious piece here is Guerra. Matches the MLB player "now" vs "later" aspect of the other trades. Cheap replacement for Hader... eventually.
Another is Pagan. Late inning guy has struggled some. 1st time arb next year: Duration of control matches Hader's. Obviously not AS good, but much cheaper, closing experience.
An interesting weird possibility would be Kirby Yates to possibly be there in the playoffs for the Brewers. Could balance 2020 $.
Morejon, Guerra, Pagan, Yates (eat some $; balance 2020 $)?
I would think at least 2 if not 3 legit prospects: Morejon - Baez - Marcano gets the ball rolling. If they were interested in the playoffs would not really deal Hader NOW and wait for the winter ... so not Pagan nor Guerra. Zero interest in Yates.
Outside chance they could be interested in Mejia instead of one of the first three since good chance Braun (DH) and Smoak (1B) will be gone for 2021 along with a number of other INF/OF bats ... part of the reason the future looks dim for MILW and dealing Hader for a slew of prospects fits NOW.
Actually Mejia and Marcano make the most sense given their greater need for bats in the near term (and little money to buy FA). Add Morejon and it might work.
Question is if any other team can lead with a better prospect ... probably can’t (or will not) offer a deeper set of prospects.
I get "no" on Yates... and Mejia is a very logical possibility. But why from their POV "no" on (especially) Guerra &/or Pagan?! They're losing their closer & are still a decent team now & going forward. They're not Pittsburgh. Pads would have Pomeranz, Hader, and now Austin Adams 3 more years EACH... think Guerra is a logical "future" for "present" high value trade chip.
Marcano can hit, and Pads likely to protect him, but no power, likely at high A in 2021, #19 consensus (pre trades, now probably top 12). Not much of a "needle mover", but there is now nothing in our system INF or OF at AAA / AA. More "value" to us than them IMO.
Morejon, Mejia, Guerra? I'm not sure I pull the trigger on that with Pomeranz (L), Austin Adams, Pagan, Strahm (L), & J. Castillo (L) around... would want them to take some $ back for that. 50% of Stammen 21 & buyout $?
No issue with the Padres trading Guerra ... and MILW likely would take him but not as a key piece of the deal.
Remember MILW has no immediate need to deal Hader and likely has other offers.
I could see a Morejon, Mejia, Guerra working but no way MILW takes any any money or anyone like Stammen, et al.
Not likely to be pulled off ... now. Call again next winter.
#393 · August 31, 2020, 12:25 pm
MIA trades for Starling Marte, and AZ has now also traded away Robbie Ray. Not sure how many games LAD has with AZ, but they just a little easier than they would have been yesterday.
#394 · August 31, 2020, 12:32 pm
Maybe we can get Stammen to retire like Kinsler?
#395 · August 31, 2020, 12:34 pm
All these deals seem to secure a good run in 2021. Expect them to have Pham back in LF and exercise the Moreland option .... so the 1-9 lineup should be really solid.
Clevinger - Davies - Lamet - Paddack as a base with #5 SP out of Gore - Patino - Morejon (all three major prospects with high ceilings).
With Profar a FA (if they don’t re-sign him) creates an issue with only Mateo, Allen, Garcia to cover the reserve INF/OF. I guess if there is an injury and one has to start the other 8 starters will be sufficient cover ... gamble with zip in the minors. A tinkering issue.
RP will be the interesting element with Rosenthal and Yates FA. Also have to consider that back to a 26 man roster likely leading to two less RP active. Then consider Adams is likely to be on the 26 and a number of RP who can’t be optioned. Preller will need to do some housecleaning vs adding unless it is a mega upgrade.
Pomeranz(L) - Strahm (L) - Hill (L) - Pagan - Adams - Johnson - Stammen (I know) - Guerra makes eight. If Gore gets the #5 SP ... leaves Patino, Morejon, Baez, Wingenter, Perdomo out in the cold.
#396 · August 31, 2020, 12:45 pm
baseballtradevalues.com sez ...
Indians get Total Value: 34.60
Padres get Total Value: 38.90
Plus this caveat in the comments ... Note: We docked Arias a bit because he is Rule 5-eligible this year. Clearly if Cleveland is trading for him, they’ll add him to their 40, in which case his value will go up to 11.3. That fills the gap here to make this one even closer, to 38.0 going to the Indians.
#397 · August 31, 2020, 12:52 pm
One side "benefit" for me is the removal of two lightning rods for debate (love them or hate them) in Naylor and Hedges. Now we are are down to Stammen, Garcia, Lucchesi, and Mejia ... not sure what we will do when they depart.
#398 · August 31, 2020, 1:04 pm
Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 12:52 pmOne side "benefit" for me is the removal of two lightning rods for debate (love them or hate them) in Naylor and Hedges. Now we are are down to Stammen, Garcia, Lucchesi, and Mejia ... not sure what we will do when they depart.
I think Stammen would be the unanimous choice
#399 · August 31, 2020, 1:05 pm
Dodgers are trying to get Lynn!