Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 11:35 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 10:25 am

Quote from hoffy51 on August 31, 2020, 10:16 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 31, 2020, 9:50 am

Word is we aren't yet done.

Rumor is negotiating for Josh Hader.

 

Why would the Brewers trade him?

I would have called that a media rumor ... but it has been around for a week or so ... so maybe some legs.

Why trade him ... he is about to earn some serious money going forward (and MILW is not the most cash secure team) plus dropping below .500 still may get them into the playoffs in the NL Central ... just not coming together as a good team that would go far.

Just may put him out there to get that big haul for the future ... and save some money.

For reference he is only 26 has 3 years more control (that is appealing) but is sitting with a $4MM base now and going to Arb 2 - Arb 3 - Arb 4. Given his track record going to be big money for a RP that could blow out his arm.

The obvious piece here is Guerra.  Matches the MLB player "now" vs "later" aspect of the other trades.  Cheap replacement for Hader... eventually.

Another is Pagan.  Late inning guy has struggled some.  1st time arb next year:  Duration of control matches Hader's.  Obviously not AS good, but much cheaper, closing experience.

An interesting weird possibility would be Kirby Yates to possibly be there in the playoffs for the Brewers.  Could balance 2020 $.

Morejon, Guerra, Pagan, Yates (eat some $; balance 2020 $)?

 

I would think at least 2 if not 3 legit prospects: Morejon - Baez - Marcano gets the ball rolling. If they were interested in the playoffs would not really deal Hader NOW and wait for the winter ... so not Pagan nor Guerra. Zero interest in Yates.

Outside chance they could be interested in Mejia instead of one of the first three since good chance Braun (DH) and Smoak (1B) will be gone for 2021 along with a number of other INF/OF bats ... part of the reason the future looks dim for MILW and dealing Hader for a slew of prospects fits NOW.

Actually Mejia and Marcano make the most sense given their greater need for bats in the near term (and little money to buy FA). Add Morejon and it might work.

Question is if any other team can lead with a better prospect ... probably can’t (or will not) offer a deeper set of prospects.

Quote from Ben Davey on August 31, 2020, 11:42 am

The PTBNL in the deal is expected to be Matt Waldron.  18th round pick last year by Cle out of U of Nebraska (so now 23).  He destroyed the two SS leagues last year 45.2 IP, 4 BB, 57 K, .192 BAA, 0.79 WHIP) but that was against guys a lot younger than him.

Oddly enough his first ever game was against the Padres.  He struck out four in two innings, with his only dent being the first ever home run for one CJ Abrams.

I guess this is another Preller scouting type of guy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:44 am

Quote from Ben Davey on August 31, 2020, 11:17 am

Quote from jcp2400 on August 31, 2020, 11:08 am

https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1300464779690115073

per this guy, Padres still have the second best farm in the majors

"This guy"  haha.  I would consider Kiley to be one of the top 1 or 2 sabermetric baseball guys in baseball.  I will never forget talking to him for a "5 minute post draft interview" in 2014 where he went on a 15 minute rant about how every scout was wrong not calling Trea Turner a top 2 or 3 player in the draft, and watch in 5-10 years when Turner is considered better than the top picks (Aiken, Kolek, Carlos Rondon, and Schwarber).  6 years later Aaron Nola is the only player drafted ahead of him with a higher WAR (Matt Chapman was drafted 10 picks later and also beats him so he is currently 3rd in 2014)

Wow!  That's encouraging!  A lot will depend on if Patino &/or Morejon "graduate".   Our system is uber deep, still strong at top, but saying we're still #2 all MLB is a pretty strong statement.  Don't follow other systems closely, but I would still say easily top 5-10 based on Four Top 50-60 in MLB prospects, plus 2 fringe of Top 100 (Morejon & now Hassell).

We'll see where we're at in a couple of hours from now!

Quote from LynchMob on August 31, 2020, 11:48 am

Here's a comment from the FG thread about the Clevinger trade that is an alternative opinion ...

Clevinger’s nearly 30, rarely healthy, and everyone knew Cleveland was motivated to sell because of locker room issues. He’s pitched more than 120 innings exactly once in his career, his best two years coincide with exceptional weakness in the AL Central, and 2020 has been a little mixed under the hood. He’s a 3.0-4.0 fWAR pitcher with baggage.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/mike-clevinger-goes-to-san-diego-in-blockbuster-deal/

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:54 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 11:35 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 10:25 am

Quote from hoffy51 on August 31, 2020, 10:16 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 31, 2020, 9:50 am

Word is we aren't yet done.

Rumor is negotiating for Josh Hader.

 

Why would the Brewers trade him?

I would have called that a media rumor ... but it has been around for a week or so ... so maybe some legs.

Why trade him ... he is about to earn some serious money going forward (and MILW is not the most cash secure team) plus dropping below .500 still may get them into the playoffs in the NL Central ... just not coming together as a good team that would go far.

Just may put him out there to get that big haul for the future ... and save some money.

For reference he is only 26 has 3 years more control (that is appealing) but is sitting with a $4MM base now and going to Arb 2 - Arb 3 - Arb 4. Given his track record going to be big money for a RP that could blow out his arm.

The obvious piece here is Guerra.  Matches the MLB player "now" vs "later" aspect of the other trades.  Cheap replacement for Hader... eventually.

Another is Pagan.  Late inning guy has struggled some.  1st time arb next year:  Duration of control matches Hader's.  Obviously not AS good, but much cheaper, closing experience.

An interesting weird possibility would be Kirby Yates to possibly be there in the playoffs for the Brewers.  Could balance 2020 $.

Morejon, Guerra, Pagan, Yates (eat some $; balance 2020 $)?

 

I would think at least 2 if not 3 legit prospects: Morejon - Baez - Marcano gets the ball rolling. If they were interested in the playoffs would not really deal Hader NOW and wait for the winter ... so not Pagan nor Guerra. Zero interest in Yates.

Outside chance they could be interested in Mejia instead of one of the first three since good chance Braun (DH) and Smoak (1B) will be gone for 2021 along with a number of other INF/OF bats ... part of the reason the future looks dim for MILW and dealing Hader for a slew of prospects fits NOW.

Actually Mejia and Marcano make the most sense given their greater need for bats in the near term (and little money to buy FA). Add Morejon and it might work.

Question is if any other team can lead with a better prospect ... probably can’t (or will not) offer a deeper set of prospects.

I get "no" on Yates... and Mejia is a very logical possibility.  But why from their POV "no" on (especially) Guerra &/or Pagan?!  They're losing their closer & are still a decent team now & going forward.  They're not Pittsburgh.  Pads would have Pomeranz, Hader, and now Austin Adams 3 more years EACH... think Guerra is a logical "future" for "present" high value trade chip.

Marcano can hit, and Pads likely to protect him, but no power, likely at high A in 2021, #19 consensus (pre trades, now probably top 12).  Not much of a "needle mover",  but there is now nothing in our system INF or OF at AAA / AA.  More "value" to us than them IMO.

Morejon, Mejia, Guerra?   I'm not sure I pull the trigger on that with Pomeranz (L), Austin Adams, Pagan, Strahm (L), & J. Castillo (L) around...   would want them to take some $ back for that.  50% of Stammen 21 & buyout $?

Quote from Ben Davey on August 31, 2020, 12:02 pm

Quote from LynchMob on August 31, 2020, 11:48 am

Here's a comment from the FG thread about the Clevinger trade that is an alternative opinion ...

Clevinger’s nearly 30, rarely healthy, and everyone knew Cleveland was motivated to sell because of locker room issues. He’s pitched more than 120 innings exactly once in his career, his best two years coincide with exceptional weakness in the AL Central, and 2020 has been a little mixed under the hood. He’s a 3.0-4.0 fWAR pitcher with baggage.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/mike-clevinger-goes-to-san-diego-in-blockbuster-deal/

I think that is why we got him without giving up a top 5 prospect.

If you think our rotation the rest of the year is Clevinger, Lamet, Paddack, Davies, and Richard

Richard is gone after this year and he gets replaced by either Morejon or Patino.  If Clevinger gets injured the other one steps in.  Davies and Clev are FA after next year which allows Gore, Morejon to cement spots as well.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 31, 2020, 12:10 pm

From the financial standpoint, doesn't look like they added much salary this year or next despite all the trades  The most expensive guy is Castro and he is a free agent next year, as is Rosenthal.  Moreland is up for 3M, Clevinger is making 4.1 million this year and covered by Arbitration like Altavilla.  Nola, Allen, Adams are all pre-arb.  Subtracted Hedges and his 3M salary but all the rest were pre-arb.  With Richards, Profar and Yates also coming off the books should be able to handle the 3M for Moreland, IF they decide to exercise their option.  Bottom line, financial flexibility not compromised next year by these deals.

If Pham really coming back in 2 weeks, then we'll probably just go with Profar/Mateo/Allen until he returns or even add Mejia into the OF mix once his finger is okay.  Moreland actually has played the OF but don't see him doing that any more.

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 12:10 pm

Quote from LynchMob on August 31, 2020, 11:48 am

Here's a comment from the FG thread about the Clevinger trade that is an alternative opinion ...

Clevinger’s nearly 30, rarely healthy, and everyone knew Cleveland was motivated to sell because of locker room issues. He’s pitched more than 120 innings exactly once in his career, his best two years coincide with exceptional weakness in the AL Central, and 2020 has been a little mixed under the hood. He’s a 3.0-4.0 fWAR pitcher with baggage.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/mike-clevinger-goes-to-san-diego-in-blockbuster-deal/

Legit.  Don't disagree.  I preferred Lynn because more "you know what you're getting".  Clevinger has 6th lowest ERA since 2017(?); but in a bad division, and his peripherals not what you'd expect for that ERA.  He's not a clear #1 like the other guys on that list...  but my thing is, at his Arb salaries vs.the 20 MM+/yr long contracts this offseason to Ryu, Bumgarner, etc, he doesn't HAVE to be a #1.

In my mind on this staff it's:  1) Lamet, 2) Paddack, 3) Clevinger, 4) Davies, 5) Richards.   Maybe the best 4 & 5 in MLB.

Pads gave a lot of quantity, but Cleveland definitely sold low due to being motivated to move him.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 31, 2020, 12:11 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 31, 2020, 11:29 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2020, 11:12 am

Quote from brent wolff on August 31, 2020, 11:04 am

Quote from WindsorUK on August 31, 2020, 8:46 am

So our top 4 team added.... Rosenthal, Moreland, Castro, Adams, Nola, Clevinger?

6 new personalities to add to our locker room. That a good idea?

That is the $64,000 question.  Moreland is an 80-grade makeup guy according to Tingler, so he should have no problems fitting in.  The only real concern is Clevinger and what went down with him lying about possibly exposing other teammates to Covid in Cleveland after going out on the town in Chicago, I believe with Plesac?  Some Cleveland players reportedly were going to opt out if Clevinger returned to the squad.

Heard the same comments about Nola and Castro ... so they should fit in fine (if true).

STRONG vet presence Hosmer, Pham, etc already there.  Moreleand, Castro obviously good vets.  Clevinger probably so happy to get out of the awkward situation & there's always that very large "geographic upgrade" from Cleveland to San Diego.   I think the clubhouse will be OK & if Clevinger has 2 brain cells he comes in with an apology & "I'm going to be a choir boy" proclamation.

My biggest concern is just the sheer # of changes.  Especially Hedges out.  Defense goes way down in tight games, but hopefully Nola's offense & Castro's vet presence just override that.

I think that's why Castro was acquired.

He is almost as good as Hedges defensively and obviously much better with the bat in his hands.