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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#11 · August 3, 2020, 3:07 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on August 3, 2020, 2:33 pmConcur. Anyone in the Lindor/Merrifield talent base will probably start with Gore and then add on 2 or more high prospects. We have a good team, but not a championship team like the Dodgers or Yankees. Can't trade away our key building blocks unless we are much closer than we are today. I like adding a complementary piece that doesn't cost us an arm and a leg but Merrifield and, certainly Lindor, are currently beyond our reach and probably will continue to be next year. The 2021-22 FA market will be key as many of our current salaried players will be ending their contracts or be less of an economic albatross. On the other hand, have to start rewarding our core players with long term contracts, so it will be an interesting balancing act in the coming years.
It's all about control & cost. No one would say Merrifield is "better" than Lindor, but he's way cheaper for way longer...
Let's assume Indians remain in the hunt through August. Not much motivation to deal Lindor while competitive. But heading into 2021 "will there be fans" & paying Lindor... 25 MM range for 1 year? There is motivation to get rid of that. That pressure isn't there for the Royals with Merrifield. So if I'm the Royals, that's where I'd start... "how about Gore + another top 100 & another good prospect".
Mr P, what I try to do on a trade proposal is imagine the player I want to acquire as if he was a Padre for however long he's been on his current team.... then say "what would I need to trade him"... which is why my proposals get blasted; because they would hurt to execute. Don't hear anyone crying about losing X Edwards now... part of the price to get a really good player.
#12 · August 3, 2020, 3:13 pm
Abrams is generally considered much more of a top prospect than either Arias or Marcano. It's a good problem to have if all develop - then you are in a seller's market and can fill other holes. These guys are not ready yet and neither is Campusano. Our club is still in transition and we have to find out what we have going forward. For those reasons, I'd still like to see us bring up Baez and Morejon (who are already on the 40 man) and even Patino (since he also has to be protected on the roster in December) and work them into situations where they can show what they have. Sending Bednar or Strahm down for a short time could allow us to do that since I don't think there is a minimum period of time you have to spend at the alternative training site. I'd do it when we play one of the weaker teams outside the NL West. Managers hate to do it because it shakes up the continuity especially in so short a season, but have to get that final spot in the rotation set so somebody has to step up. This will be extremely tough to do, however, if we can't maintain the 30 man roster for a longer period.
#13 · August 3, 2020, 3:17 pm
The "problem" with dealing A ball prospects (no matter how good the projection) is that they are A ball prospects carrying a ton of development risk. If I am a seller of an elite ML player, not going to take that risk on when I can market my elite ML player for a lower risk (but still highly desirable) AAA/AA prospect (or even a proven ML talent). If not compelled to deal (money the usual trigger), just don't deal until the right deal comes along.
The trade value of Arias, Abrams, Marcano, will not fully blossom until they have had more success in the minors .... probably in AA at least.
Padres have a lot of internal shuffling to do with 2B an "unknown" going forward but also with Pham (FA after 2021) and Myers (FA 2022) on the offense side. Grisham "looks" to be an OF piece (still early) then pretty thin. Trammell is a highly rated prospect that did not hit in AA then ???? Good chance that we could see Arias or Abrams or Marcano in the OF in 2022-23 ... maybe all three. Deal them and the OF future is more at risk over the next few years.
Going back to Preller / Fowler who keep saying they want to contend now and every season afterwards .... can't do that by going for quick fixes prematurely and draining the talent needed for future seasons.
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Not sure on the payroll limits going forward .... Padres could be around $120MM if they let all the FA go. Don't know their position post the 2020 losses and the need/desire to create a strike fund for 2020. Guessing they will be "cautious" about taking on payroll but given the assumed glut of FA talent on the market bolstered by non-tenders ... might swing a team favorable one year deal to bolster any perceived holes for 2021 without over-extending in a trade. I would not discount the fear of a strike / lockout in 2022 muting player transactions until that is resolved unless you are a big market / big money club.
#14 · August 3, 2020, 5:42 pm
Injuries on other teams are unfortunate but do open some trade opportunities. IF the Padres are thinking both now and the future ... at least in theory they could be "sellers" of ML talent (marginal talent mind you) while still striving for the playoffs.
Two injuries announce today might prompt a phone call from Preller to "help out":
LAA announce an Ohtani injury that will keep him from pitching for 4-6 weeks (not their strong suit) and his DHing is "day to day". With Trout - Rendon - Upton - Simmons the Angels were targeting the playoff run. IF the Padres are off Quantrill or Lucchesi (and see a call up of Patino) ... one might appeal to LAA augmented by a LHH DH/1B like Naylor. Opens up some roster space for the Padres and even with a marginal farm system sure Preller could ID a quality piece to get in return.
ATL's #1 SP Soroka was helped off the field today with (I speculate) a pretty bad achilles or knee injury ... if that proves out .... ATL is targeting the top of the NL East and could use another SP. Once again if Preller is open to moving either Lucchesi or Quantrill ... ATL has a good farm system so might be a match.
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Long shot but IF the prospect in return is strong ... might even consider a deal with Davies. Also the Padres would have to be convinced Patino could step right in. LAA (Marsh?) / ATL (Waters?). Likely not a 1:1 deal but you get the idea.
#15 · August 4, 2020, 1:15 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2020, 5:42 pmInjuries on other teams are unfortunate but do open some trade opportunities. IF the Padres are thinking both now and the future ... at least in theory they could be "sellers" of ML talent (marginal talent mind you) while still striving for the playoffs.
Two injuries announce today might prompt a phone call from Preller to "help out":
LAA announce an Ohtani injury that will keep him from pitching for 4-6 weeks (not their strong suit) and his DHing is "day to day". With Trout - Rendon - Upton - Simmons the Angels were targeting the playoff run. IF the Padres are off Quantrill or Lucchesi (and see a call up of Patino) ... one might appeal to LAA augmented by a LHH DH/1B like Naylor. Opens up some roster space for the Padres and even with a marginal farm system sure Preller could ID a quality piece to get in return.
ATL's #1 SP Soroka was helped off the field today with (I speculate) a pretty bad achilles or knee injury ... if that proves out .... ATL is targeting the top of the NL East and could use another SP. Once again if Preller is open to moving either Lucchesi or Quantrill ... ATL has a good farm system so might be a match.
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Long shot but IF the prospect in return is strong ... might even consider a deal with Davies. Also the Padres would have to be convinced Patino could step right in. LAA (Marsh?) / ATL (Waters?). Likely not a 1:1 deal but you get the idea.
Are we competing this year or are we not? Are we sellers or buyers? If we are competing this year we cannot trade our #5 starter/s. I know everybody loves Gore and Patino but they have never pitched in mlb. We have 3 excellent starters. We need 5 at least passable starters. If we trade Quantrill or Lucchesi right now we will be doing it at their lowest value. That is always a mistake.
#16 · August 4, 2020, 3:22 am
I most certainly would cry about losing X Edwards if anyone cared to listen.
😩
He was “my guy”.
We need to stay competitive the next few years because he will make us at least remember that trade.
#17 · August 4, 2020, 5:46 am
We need to take any and all trade scenarios with the caveat that "any" and "every" trade proposal is a longshot this season due to the Covid based season.
That being said this thread is still here and can be fun to talk about the "what if's" during the season.
Which brings us to the Braves and their current starting pitching situation.
If there was to be any interest between the two teams what do you think it could be?
Obviously for us we "could" conceivably trade them one of Quantrill/Lucchesi/Davies "IF"...and we just don't know for sure but "IF" AJ has intentions of bringing up Patino or Gore this season at some point anyway.
Any thoughts on what kind of deal could be constructed?
The Braves are deep in the Pen and thin in the rotation.
So any deal "could" include them sending back a reliever....maybe to take Q's spot if he's dealt or needed to go into the rotation?
#18 · August 4, 2020, 7:04 am
Really I doubt any “major” deal will happen ... and even a “minor” deal is a long shot.
Only just over 3 weeks for teams to consider themselves contenders or not and with 16 playoff slots ... almost everyone should “hold” and not “sell” and, maybe, willing to buy but with little to buy. Think most buyers and sellers are just going to punt to next winter when the trade dynamics somewhat return to “normal”. Padres have begun well enough to be in the playoff mix so more like looking to buy to fill a hole (if any) but just will not find anyone of quality (at a fair trade price).
The wild card .. as it relates to Preller making a deal ... is another team calling any willing to over pay for player in a way that benefits the future and Preller gauges that he has equivalent backfill now for the player dealt.
Most feasible scenario is Preller (and the development staff) see either Patino or Gore as ready for the ML at a level that at least as good, let’s say Quantrill. If another team is willing to overpay for Quantrill ... even if it is with a prospect for 2021 or beyond ... could be the basis of a deal for the future while still trying for the playoffs in 2020.
Again, very very unlikely but would not wholly exclude the possibility.
#19 · August 4, 2020, 8:07 am
Quote from JasonE135 on August 4, 2020, 1:15 amQuote from fenn68 on August 3, 2020, 5:42 pmInjuries on other teams are unfortunate but do open some trade opportunities. IF the Padres are thinking both now and the future ... at least in theory they could be "sellers" of ML talent (marginal talent mind you) while still striving for the playoffs.
Two injuries announce today might prompt a phone call from Preller to "help out":
LAA announce an Ohtani injury that will keep him from pitching for 4-6 weeks (not their strong suit) and his DHing is "day to day". With Trout - Rendon - Upton - Simmons the Angels were targeting the playoff run. IF the Padres are off Quantrill or Lucchesi (and see a call up of Patino) ... one might appeal to LAA augmented by a LHH DH/1B like Naylor. Opens up some roster space for the Padres and even with a marginal farm system sure Preller could ID a quality piece to get in return.
ATL's #1 SP Soroka was helped off the field today with (I speculate) a pretty bad achilles or knee injury ... if that proves out .... ATL is targeting the top of the NL East and could use another SP. Once again if Preller is open to moving either Lucchesi or Quantrill ... ATL has a good farm system so might be a match.
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Long shot but IF the prospect in return is strong ... might even consider a deal with Davies. Also the Padres would have to be convinced Patino could step right in. LAA (Marsh?) / ATL (Waters?). Likely not a 1:1 deal but you get the idea.
Are we competing this year or are we not? Are we sellers or buyers? If we are competing this year we cannot trade our #5 starter/s. I know everybody loves Gore and Patino but they have never pitched in mlb. We have 3 excellent starters. We need 5 at least passable starters. If we trade Quantrill or Lucchesi right now we will be doing it at their lowest value. That is always a mistake.
Agree. Unless it's for a key SPECIFIC MLB piece (or top prospect VERY near MLB ready for that role), can't trade "depth" for "quality" prospects in a season where we're competing to win now & with so many unknowns.
#20 · August 4, 2020, 8:49 am
I don’t think anyone thinks we should trade prospects...even depth,for a one month rental.