Quote from fenn68 on March 26, 2020, 11:06 am

MLB just came out with what looks to be the thinking on the 2020 draft ... I don't get the logic ... but apparently agreed to by the teams and the union.

1. draft pushed back to some time in July
2. may be limited to 5 - 10 rounds
3. un-drafted players will be limited to a $10K bonus.

Not seeing any "quality prospects" taking $10K rather than playing in college for another year (or going to JC) to get their education while increasing the chance of getting a bigger bonus in 2021.

Might see some different drafting strategy if they limit it to 5 rounds (with 5 round bonus money limit) ... would not see a lot of over slot picks without the ability to go under slot in round 6 - 10. Might push more HS types to college (or JC) if not taken early in the 1st round. Maybe good for college juniors who get drafted earlier instead of an upside HS player.

2021 could also be interesting with arguably more talent in play if HS kids go JC ... college juniors remain in and college sophs become eligible as juniors.

Not sure what this will do for the 2020 short season leagues ... except some of the "marginal" prospects still around will (should) be the core of players without new adds. Maybe they just drop the short season leagues and save some money? Reconvene next ST?

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 7, 2020, 6:19 am

I guess I don't completely understand why they would limit the Draft to 5-10 rounds?

I'm sure every Org. has done their backgrounds on all eligible players...and I understand the seasons were shut down so there's less data to go on.

Also,they are giving another year of eligibility to College Seniors but why not just do a complete virtual draft?

Players who want to return to College don't have to sign.

Limiting the Daft will cost a lot of kids their dream IMO.

Many who don't get drafted this year due to the round limit may never get another opportunity.

Some will get hurt...some won't go to College....some will regress next season or in the future if they go to College.

I guess my question is....Why "can't" they still hold all the rounds of the Draft?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 7, 2020, 9:06 am

They "can" but don't want to ... hard to guess their thinking but some thoughts:

1. Considering each team has maybe 150+ prospects NOT playing in the suspended minors ... and a bigger unknown when (if) they will play in 2020 ... adding another 30 or 40 in July just creates a larger problem with playing time if they resume (some current prospects might get their careers cut short).
2. If the minors get delayed until 2021 ... drafting these guys in 2021 may delay their start for 3 months but allows for the teams to sort through their current minor league players before they arrive. Gives the current prospects a better chance to prove themselves.
3. Teams can still sign un-drafted kids ($10K) if they want and the kid is that motivated to start his career sooner than later.
4. Teams will save some money (albeit small amount in the big picture) but statistically picks in the latter rounds are normally minor league filler for a time with only a few exceptions so maybe (for the teams) maybe willing to pass on that chance.

Will some amateurs lose an opportunity to play in the minors (and in college as the extra eligibility clogs the rosters) ... probably yes. Will some current minor league players get their careers cut short prematurely ... probably yes. No way to spin this without some individuals being disadvantaged.

Quote from hoffy51 on May 8, 2020, 7:17 pm

Five rounds! June 10.

Teams will be allowed to sign an unlimited number of undrafted players for $20,000.

Delayed signing bonuses, with a maximum of $100,000 to be paid within 30 days of a player signing, 50% of the remainder due July 1, 2021, and the leftover due July 1, 2022.

Penny wise, pound foolish. Uh!

Quote from fenn68 on May 9, 2020, 7:23 am

I should be quite interesting how this plays out ... primarily by the mix of players taken in those first 5 rounds and how both the teams and players address the $20K cap on bonuses.

In the first 5 rounds ... going to be harder to do over slot signs (if the new rules even allow that) since a lot of the money to pay over slot came from under slot signs in rounds 6 - 10. Since that should impact HS players typically taken in rounds 2 - 5 who have an option to go JC or College. Might see more College players taken in rounds 2 - 5. I guess a team could really gamble and go under slot on the round 4/5 picks (#5 is about $400K) and pick up maybe $750K for over slot signs (HS kid in round 2 over slot) but the team gets one "better" prospect at #2 at the cost of getting two "lesser" prospects in rounds #4 and #5. With the non-drafted cap at $20K ... should be easy to get Collage types to sign for just over $20K if selected in the draft.

Non-drafted players may not be that motivated to sign for $20K ... go to JC or College or remain in Collage and wait for a "normal" draft to return. Some may just forego playing for only $20K. Without a minor league season (probably until next year), they are not losing any development time by waiting. On the other hand, some may see the opportunity to sign now as a FA with an organization they want to join.

Additionally, not sure how may players teams even want to add this year. Remember they are also attempting to shrink MiL teams (and by extension, players) for next year. Since they already have a ton of players under contract (Padres have 2 AZL, 1 NWL, and 1 DSL for the entry level) ... do they even want to add a full slate of "low probability" prospects (at $20K per) who historically a system filler. On the flip side, wonder how may of the system filler players .... getting a year older and missing a 2020 season .... choose to just retire on their own vs. the team making more aggressive releases.

Clearly going be different this draft.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 9, 2020, 10:04 am

Well, it's pretty obvious there is going to be an extended time (at least through 2021, likely longer) of shrinking salaries & signing bonuses.  I realize the top slots are same as last year, but I would think Hudson Head being drafted this year would take 1/2 of last year's $ & be happy to get it.  Is any guy > 500K slot really going to turn down that slot $ in this "economy" to (not) play baseball?  The 4th/5th round guys are vulnerable to getting bullied by the picking team with all the $ going to the top 3 rounds.

For a system as deep as the Padres, I literally don't see the point in signing ANY 20K (going to be all college guys) non drafted?!?!  These are all going to be 12th-40th round type guys.  Only need would be for "system" holes at various levels.  Pads don't have many, but more importantly, what is the point of plugging holes in a system that is overwhelmingly unlikely to play this year at lower levels...with older players?  I guess theoretically some of these guys would have more playing opportunity NEXT year than a typical low draft pick, but hard to see any HS or many College Juniors opting for this; just not risking that much to continue as amateurs.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 9, 2020, 10:19 am

Tangent, but I've always HATED the machinations of the way the MLB draft is currently set up; signing 10th round guys for 1 K so you can sign 11th round guys for 300K etc just seems stupid...

With drafts now set pooled $, I don't understand why they don't go to some version of hard slotting; maybe it's a 20-25% range around the #?  Just pick the best players in order.  The # could be lower for College Seniors (50% lower?)   The difficulty/variation in opinion identifying who will make it to MLB, and built in HS vs college player differences in leverage would still lead to finding good players others missed.  Too much of the draft is based on "signability", and playing elaborate games to try to figure out a way "around" this.  What's the point of having "slots" through 10 rounds & having everyone not use that $ in rounds 7-10 & flowing that $ to the top picks?  Just adjust the slot amounts...

I think Hudson Head is a great example.  Oversimplifying a little, but Boras knew Padres HAD to sign him, so he took every last penny of available pool $, precluding the other talented guys Pads drafted after 10th round from signing.  Padres did not come out "ahead" by all the 6th-10th round budget Sr signings... the "extra" $ created just all flowed to the guy who had the most leverage.  I have a hard time believing Pads couldn't have signed another good player for 500K bonus with Head "only" getting 2.5MM that he really would have passed that up.

Quote from fenn68 on May 9, 2020, 12:38 pm

With the losses from 2020 non-play and with the CBA up for renegotiation after 2021 (and needing to prepare a cash stockpile for a strike in 2022) ... MLB will be doing everything they can to limit cast outflow from now until the new CBA is settled.

Along with coming FA ... draftees will be both limited and lowballed. If the potential draftees (non-drafted) see it that way ... got to be a tough decision on taking a lowball (from the past) offer to sign or go to college and take the risk of the unknown future for maybe the 2021 draft (or longer depending on the CBA).

Have heard the rumored discussion on “hard slotting” combined with the reduced rounds going beyond 2020 and “capping” non-drafted FA bonuses. Major pushback by the Union and the agents ... all want the “freedom” of negotiation to get players their optimum deal. Not so sure even the teams like the hard slotting ... takes away some of their selection / negotiation strategy in getting the best “package” of draftees in their view. Still spend the same total amount no matter how it is distributed.

Any choice benefits someone and disadvantages someone ...

Quote from JasonE135 on May 14, 2020, 12:41 am

So Max Myer, Mick Abel, Jared Kelly, Garrett Mitchell? Possibly Heston Kjerstad, Reid Detmers or Zack Veen? Thoughts?

I personally hate Detmers. He seems far too much like a college version of Ryan Weathers, a lefty with stuff that is average to slightly above and will max out as a #3 or #4 starter. We should be able to do better than another Joey Lucchesi or Eric Lauer with the #8 pick. Kjerstad has tons of power but a complicated swing. Pass. Zack Veen is a HS LH with a beautiful swing and tons of hitting ability, projects to have great power and average athleticism. Perfect corner OF if he works out, but he is projected to be gone by #8. Jared Kelly and Mick Abel are HS RHP with size and good stuff that could continue to get better. I think #8 is too high for a shot-in-the-dark RHP who could be anywhere from garbage to great.

So...I still like Garrett Mitchell even though he has been dropping like a stone. Tremendous athleticism, plus bat, size, 70 grade speed, plus CF, what's not to like? He has shown no power, yet. They say he has great power in BP, none in games.(only 2-HR his entire college career) They say he could drop to mid 20's in the draft! I personally don't care about the power. Not from a CF. If he can give plus defense in CF with huge range, a plus arm, lots of SB and most importantly an actual plus bat who can actually hit at the ml level I would take that in a second. Even with type 1 diabetes. I also like Max Meyer. Small(6'0",185), but he is a college arm so he is proven and should be relatively quick to the majors. He has better stuff than any of our current pitchers. A 70-FB(93-100), 70-SLD(87-91), so similar to Lamet. The difference? Has shown the ability to absolutely dominate in college, but more importantly has above average control and an above average changeup. Both will likely be available at #8.