Quote from JasonE135 on February 1, 2020, 7:22 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 1, 2020, 10:56 am

Most Mocks have Mitchell gone in the top 5.

Plus Preller is known for taking the guy with the highest upside even if still in High School.

I’m thinking it may be time to take guys that will contribute in SD “sooner”.....but will he?

 

I think that both Quantrill and Weathers are those guys. In both of those drafts there were plenty of players left with higher upsides. Instead he chose pitchers who, especially Weathers, have lesser stuff but have major league bloodlines and a higher floor. Most teams don't draft guys with a #3 or #4 ceiling at the middle/top of the first round.

I like the CF from UCLA myself. As long as he truly knows how to hit. We have a lack of high upside bats in our system. We have plenty of guys with great defense but not a lot with huge hitting ability. Especially power hitters who hit well enough to make it in mlb.

Quote from fenn68 on March 12, 2020, 2:40 pm

A secondary effect of the virus cancellations is the fate of the draft.

NCAA has cancelled all spring sports ... including baseball and the CWS. Many HS have already cancelled their sports and clearly more will come.

The draft will occur ... but not much new input without spring games and sounding as though some scouts are just going home.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on March 12, 2020, 9:04 pm

It does currently look like both Asa Lacy and Gerritt Mitchell may be gone by the time we draft. I am currently looking at Robert Hassell 3 or Austin Hendrick, high school OF. It looks like most of the premium college hitters and pitchers will be gone by the time the Padres pick. But we may still be able to get the top high school prospect in the class.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2020, 7:43 am

This Pandemic is really going to have an impact on this draft.

Not only will  players not be able to be properly scouted but I would guess many will choose to not come out early if college underclassmen and

many HS kids may choose college thinking they didn't go as high as they thought they would "based" on this abbreviated season.

Many HS kids or College Juniors who would normally sign may think their position was wrongly determined and will want another shot

and raising their draft stock.

This could really affect who teams draft....College seniors now may be even more "signable" in other words.

I feel bad for all the kids who were counting on this season to set them up for their futures.

Some it won't matter...but there are many on the bubble or who could have moved up significantly given the opportunity that has now been taken away.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2020, 11:17 am

I could see a lot of HS seniors taking the JC route ... wanting more exposure to elevate their draft stock but not wait 3 years before being eligible if they go to a 4 year school.

Still those going early (such as #8) likely will not see the benefit of waiting. Even the College juniors may not want to wait (seniors lose all the leverage).

So, the HS seniors who are not taken early may be the group that becomes problematic. In turn, with that uncertainty, maybe some College type move up the board (more track record, less development change from SOPH to JR, easier sign). HS kid usually have a lot of development change between JR and SR years ... so a much bigger unknown / risk for the drafting team.

However, hard to outthink GMs ... maybe some HS kids who want to start their careers might sign for LESS (and get drafted earlier) for teams who want to get cheap upside. A lot of ways this could go.

Early speculation by me ... Padres take a HS pitcher.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2020, 12:37 pm

Yeah this will hardly affect 1st rounders.... it everyone else may have an extra choice to make and more uncertainty about where they were picked.

 

 

Quote from Ben Davey on March 14, 2020, 10:20 am

All spring sports get an extra year of eligibility (as in this year didnt count)

Not only does that mean that all college seniors can have an extra year (gain leverage), but juniors will have 2 more years, sophomores 3, freshman 4.  Colleges will not have scholarship limits for the next few years.

What that means is that teams lose leverage with seniors.

It also means that since the eligibility for the draft is based on age (you have to be at least 20 by a certain date) you will essentially have draft eligible freshman in 2021.

If I am a 12th grader, I lost the ability to showcase myself, but if I go to a 4 year college, especially one that didnt lose very many players to the draft, am I going to have a chance to play? Could result in a spike in JuCo.

Right before D-Day happened, the BA people were discussing how this was such a HUGE draft for college pitchers.  That there were pitchers with back end 1st round talent who will end up going in the 3rd or 4th round.  Outside of the top 10-15 players (which normally separate themselves during the season ugh) there isnt a huge difference there wont be a huge difference between the 20th player and the 80th player.  As a result they were speculating that some teams might take a guy with a below slot deal in the 1st round, so they have more capital for the later round guys.  They compared it a lot to the 2016 draft, where both Dustin May and Jesus Lazardo were 3rd round picks.  (For those wondering the Padres took Mason Thompson a few picks before Lazardo and May, but did get Lucchesi in the 4th round).  That was the Quantril/Potts/Lauer/Reed/Lawson/Thompson/Lucchesi in the first 4 rounds.  If 2020 draft is similar to it, it will get really interesting what the Padres and MLB do.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2020, 12:15 pm

Has it been confirmed that the extra year applies to more than the college seniors? I know there is a bit of angst within the colleges of the cost of carrying an extra "class" thru scholarships, housing, meals, et. al. ... maybe OK for the few current seniors but stretching that out for 4 years starts to be worrisome.

Not so sure that means all that much to the negotiation process for the college seniors since virtually all the seniors were marginal prospects at best and not sure of that group how many will graduate and move on with their lives rather than returning for another baseball season (graduate school?) and then be still a marginal prospect. If they want to play ball ... just sign now.

Age becomes a disadvantage in waiting as underclassmen perform and become more appealing.

The HS seniors to JC may be the more (most) critical factor in reshaping the draft.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on March 14, 2020, 10:07 pm

While it might not be substantial, it will be a factor.  Last year a "senior sign" was usually given between 5-10k, because they had nothing else to bargain with.  This year, they can return back to college.  Take someone like Dominic Taccolinni, he was drafted in the 16th round as a junior by the Blue Jays (didnt sign), then the Padres signed him in the 10th round in 2017.  They gave him virtually nothing and he never made it out of the AZL (pitched in the AZL 17/18 then was released).  Alex Cunningham that same year was given virtually nothing, and he never even made it to 2018.  Point being, if you are a fringe prospect, wouldnt you want to return to college for 1 more chance at the CWS and/or busting your butt and going higher in the draft?

Its not a huge point, but a team like the Padres who have taken 2-3 senior signs in the first 10 rounds so they can spend bigger on other players, might not be as successful with that strategy this year.