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2018 MLB DRAFT
#151 · June 15, 2018, 12:49 am
Dave Cameron was not involved in amateur coverage for Fangraphs, the rankings from Eric and Kiley aren't a "stat model" at all, and that's not how slot bonuses work.
#152 · June 15, 2018, 6:38 am
Quote from Ryan Payne on June 14, 2018, 3:42 pmIt doesn't matter what high schoolers go for on a yearly basis - You're paying the player, not the statistic. If a player has a steadfast commitment to a particular program, of course it's going to take more than just slot value to get him signed. That's the whole point of the bonus pool system. Some teams draft players knowing their commitment one way or another will mean an overslot deal, or like the Twins with Royce Lewis, an underslot deal. It's a player to player dynamic, not a blanket, one size fits all situation.
Right history doesn't matter, except for the fact that even the immediate history of the very same draft matters enough that players wait for others to sign.
#153 · June 15, 2018, 7:41 am
saw a study on signings vs slot value (don't recall who did it) but the key take-away is cumulatively across the entire draft HS players sign for 110% of slot value while college players eat the difference and sign under slot value (and if you are a college SR. WAY under slot). Not a real revelation but the average 110% over slot sets some context (probably from the Edwards type of HS kid that slides to a lower slot but gets the bigger bonus). Of course, always remember that individual results may very.
2017 was a odd set-up of signings in the top 5. Royce Lewis who most saw as the 4th-5th pick (slot at about $6MM) apparently works a pre-draft understanding with MINN to be the #1 pick (slot about $7.7MM) but agrees to sign for $6.7MM ... net Lewis makes potentially more than what he would have received getting picked later while MINN potentially saves $1MM to deploy on later picks. Only works if Lewis' camp believes he would be limited in bonus if he slid down the picks (later teams don't have the bonus flexibility). Gore and Greene go "slightly" above the slot allocation (more a token amount) and really don't stretch the HS - overslot logic. Then also counter trend ... McKay and Wright go over slot (noticeably) as College players ... must have been odd negotiation as both were contenders for 1-1 at some point ... got bypassed yet did not get squeezed to the max on bonus money. Actually both got more than Lewis and McKay was about $0.9MM over slot and Wright was about $1.3 over slot.
Not sure what that all means but clearly supports individual negotiations and ultimate bonuses are unique to the player / team and the "slot" value is not a driving force (more the full pool allocation and the mix of the rest of a team's picks). Most player agents have done a lot of talking with teams assessing about where a player will fall (and the likely bonus range) so probably not a lot of range between the team and the player in their negotiation (or the team would not have drafted the player seeking certainty so they can execute the rest of the draft understanding their pool limits).
Probably too much concern around what individuals get as bonus when the focus should be the teams signing the best talent.
#155 · June 18, 2018, 3:37 pm
A handful more day three signees with no impact on the bonus pool were announced earlier:
Tyler Gatewood
Reiss Knehr
Mason Fox
Lee Solomon
Cody Tyler
Rainier Aguilar
At this point, no news on Weathers. Little and Quezada (NOTE: ignore the roster posted on MILB.com, he has not signed) could be busy for a while in Omaha as Tech beat the top overall seed UNC last night. While Guilbe has indicated he's going to sign, he has not yet.
#156 · June 18, 2018, 6:54 pm
Would not be surprised if this did not drag on for another week (after Texas Tech ends it season and Little / Quezada sign).
Padres have a few HS types drafted after #10 that may require some bonuses over the $125K cap and may not want to commit to those until they are sure about where they sit with their total bonus allocation. Not likely worried about the initial dollar penalty level (if that still the same) but don't want to "accidentally" trip the loss of draft pick level.
So locking down Little and Quezada may be step one.
Weathers might still be "negotiating" but just as good a chance given we are in the $5MM+ range that the lawyers, financial advisers, et. al. are setting up a plan (and doing the paperwork) to minimize that tax bite and establish a professional investment plan.
No real hurry for any of the parties.
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side note: Little made an excellent diving catch in LF in the opening game of the CWS. Looks athletic and was a SS .... so may pop up anywhere with the announcers saying he could shift to CF or back to the INF.
#157 · June 22, 2018, 5:32 pm
Texas Tech bowed out of the CWS last night and traveled back to Lubbock today. I suspect we'll hear news on both Little and Quezada early next week with Weathers shortly behind that. Reminder that the deadline is two weeks from tomorrow. Quezada is almost certainly getting the same $5,000 that Wilson and Becker got.
I suspect that they'll wind up with four other high schoolers/JuCo guys signed once Weathers is done.
#160 · June 25, 2018, 8:31 pm
I would be more surprised at a FW assignment than LE seeing as Buddy Reed is likely in SA. Then again he could go FW coinciding with Podorsky headed back to LE.