Quote from David Jay on June 13, 2018, 6:40 pm

They paid late first round money to a guy who profiled as a late first round talent.

Quote from Cptjack on June 14, 2018, 4:32 am

Quote from David Jay on June 13, 2018, 6:40 pm

They paid late first round money to a guy who profiled as a late first round talent.

That's only a factor if you believe that is the absolute minimum he signs for. Quantrill, Gore, and now him? I don't think their above slot is even close to minimum they sign for. So it's a trend I don't like.

Quote from fenn68 on June 14, 2018, 7:19 am

Quote from Cptjack on June 14, 2018, 4:32 am

Quote from David Jay on June 13, 2018, 6:40 pm

They paid late first round money to a guy who profiled as a late first round talent.

That's only a factor if you believe that is the absolute minimum he signs for. Quantrill, Gore, and now him? I don't think their above slot is even close to minimum they sign for. So it's a trend I don't like.

I don't see the issue with pre-draft deals (or at least a reasonable understanding of the zone that will get a draftee signed) ... that especially is significant for HS players who have a legit option to go to College. Edwards was a Vanderbilt commit and MLB had him as the 28th best prospect ... teams let him slide to 38 (in part likely due to his bonus demand). So the Padres must think he is legitimately a 1st round talent and pay him accordingly rather than taking a lesser talent at #38 at slot with the trade off being under slot signs (also with pre-draft understandings on bonus) later in the top 10 rounds. In theory, lesser talent in the later rounds are selected but at that point the odds of any major find is significantly lower than a projected first round draftee. Even though some gems come out to the later rounds ... more of a lucky pick than insight considering all 30 teams kept passing on these guys.

The other factor in pre-draft deals is a team can mold a strategy on who to take and where in the draft if the team has some desire to pay over slot for superior talent hard to sign. Need to know the mix before the picks. If they don't ... likely would never take a projected over slot player arguably passing on some superior talent. Remember if Edwards has made in know his price is $2.6MM or he goes to college and a teams drafts him in a slot that comes in at $1.9MM thinking they can get him to come down .... and he does not ... the team loses that draftee and slot money. Not all that sure that is a good thing in building an organization. Key being HS draftees can and do pass on the money at times for college ... that its there right.

Now if someone does not think Edwards a 1st round talent (Padres apparently do) ... different discussion and the alternative would to not have taken him and taken whomever next was on the board.

 

Quote from Cptjack on June 14, 2018, 8:22 am

I don't have an issue with pre-draft deals. I have an issue with overpaying on pre-draft deals. The idea that an injured Quantrill goes back to Stanford as a senior with less negotiating power and comes out ahead? Ridiculous. The idea that Gore goes to college forgoing near #3 money? Ridiculous. While Edwards 800k overslot is less of a stretch due to the much lower initial slot. It still represents a pattern of behavior.

Quote from Ryan Payne on June 14, 2018, 8:49 am

What constitutes an "overpay?" Gore signed for 6.7 million. The slot value for him was 6.680,100. You're talking about a difference of 20,000 dollars. Ridiculously miniscule amount to get tilted over. Again, some people bitch just to bitch. The reason why Quantrill got above slot is because he was viewed as a potential 1-1 draft pick. Even his overslot deal was only 330k.

Quote from fenn68 on June 14, 2018, 9:18 am

Any guesses on where Weathers come in bonus wise? Most I have heard seem to think at or below slot. Following the normal pattern the top 10 picks in the draft seem to linger to near the end. Think only one has signed so far and a quick look at the rest of the first round the signings have been "near" slot except for one that was WAY under slot.

Would expect the Padres have a firm understanding with the two Texas Tech players in the CWS as to bonus levels (the 10th round pick was a senior I think and should sign a minimal contract). Not sure why the #9 and #8 (both I think also were college seniors) bonuses were not revealed yet but combined with the under slot bonuses to the announced signs I think should cover Edwards.

I guess the combo of Weathers, Little, and the 10th pick not being official puts a delay on pursuing any over slot moves after round #10 ... don't really want to make a binding commitment on the overs until you our sure the pool money is really there (remember Karstin Whitson). Have to July 6th I think.

Maybe for PR purposes they time the Weathers' signing for when the Padres are in SD (next Mon - Wed) to showcase him in-front of the media.

Quote from Cptjack on June 14, 2018, 11:23 am

Quote from Ryan Payne on June 14, 2018, 8:49 am

What constitutes an "overpay?" Gore signed for 6.7 million. The slot value for him was 6.680,100. You're talking about a difference of 20,000 dollars. Ridiculously miniscule amount to get tilted over. Again, some people bitch just to bitch. The reason why Quantrill got above slot is because he was viewed as a potential 1-1 draft pick. Even his overslot deal was only 330k.

Of course if you go by slot instead of what players were actually getting it doesn't seem like an overpay. The first 8 picks in that 2016 draft combined for 75% slot. Yet the injured guy who has the potential of a 1-1 except for you know the catastrophic injury that sidelines careers definitely deserved that 10% overslot. The guy actually in contention for 1-1 all year didn't even go overslot. As for Gore from 2014-2016  HSers that went 1-5  averaged  800k underslot. Gore signs overslot, forces the Reds to go overslot to sign Greene.

 

Like I said I don't think Edwards is particularly egregious. It just shows the pattern of predraft deals that haven't been favorable to the FO.

Quote from Ryan Payne on June 14, 2018, 3:42 pm

It doesn't matter what high schoolers go for on a yearly basis - You're paying the player, not the statistic. If a player has a steadfast commitment to a particular program, of course it's going to take more than just slot value to get him signed. That's the whole point of the bonus pool system. Some teams draft players knowing their commitment one way or another will mean an overslot deal, or like the Twins with Royce Lewis, an underslot deal. It's a player to player dynamic, not a blanket, one size fits all situation.

Quote from fenn68 on June 14, 2018, 9:04 pm

• The Padres will pay out $2.6MM to land supplemental first-round choice Xavier Edwards, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). A consensus first-round talent, Edwards went 38th overall ($1,878,300 allocation) and required a well-over-slot bonus to give up his commitment to Vanderbilt. Fangraphs was the highest outlet on the Florida high-schooler, ranking him 17th among all eligible players based upon his outstanding speed, quality bat, and promising outlook as an up-the-middle defender.

Of note Dava Cameron of Fangraphs was hired by the Padres in January ... logically his same stat model would have suggested to the Padres that Edwards was the 17th best player in the draft.

If that is the case ... now some real creative logic .... the Padres paid Edwards a bonus of $2.6 MM but the 17th slot would have been around $3.5 MM meaning based on some kind of Fangraph logic they got Edwards for about $900K UNDER slot based on player value.

Regardless of the money ... looks like the Padres got a player at #38 that may be quite a bit better than that pick point would suggest.