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2018 MLB DRAFT

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https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/padres-to-start-reliever-against-cards/c-280820608

Reports: Padres sign Draft duo
The Padres agreed to a deal with third-round Draft choice Owen Miller on Monday, according to MLB Network's Jon Heyman. They also inked high-upside 16th-rounder Michael Curry, per MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis.

Miller's signing bonus is unknown. He succeeded Paul DeJong as Illinois State's shortstop and played every inning of every game there over the past three seasons, while batting .384/.433/.537 during his junior year.

"Owen was, in my opinion, a more complete hitter," Illinois State coach Bo Durkac said earlier this month, comparing Miller with DeJong.

Curry, meanwhile, batted .322/.395/.532 with 13 homers in his junior season at Georgia. His signing bonus is worth $125,000 -- the maximum amount that does not count against the overall bonus pool.

Will we keep Miller at SS?

Quote from WindsorUK on June 12, 2018, 4:57 am

Will we keep Miller at SS?

Most of the national coverage seems to see him moving to 2B with a projection of a quality bat and defense ... at some point.

Would not be surprised if initially (likely in TC) he begins at SS since not sure of who else is in the mix for their SS spot. Edwards the HS kid is more AZ Rookie material. Their 9th pick Becker from Kentucky should take the 2B slot initially. Now there are some extended ST options ... no idea on where they fit in at his point but Barley is considered a legit prospect .. not sure on the rest as TC fits now. If the Padres follow their recent history ... all the middle INF will get shots at 2B/SS/3B initially.

Just a random observation of the draft ... and potential impact on signings.

In the "pool rounds 1-10" the Padres' selections seemed consistent with past drafts with a couple of HS types early (Weathers, Edwards) and a a HS pitcher a bit later from Puerto Rico. The other 8 picks were college types and a few were college seniors. No indication that any of the picks are "over slot" candidates and indeed the later picks are clearly under slot. (note: Keith Law speculated that Weathers may be under slot and doubted Edwards would be over slot). What that suggests that there will be a significant amount of pool money for the 3rd day picks.

Moving to rounds 11 - 20 from which historically most are signed but also historically most are college types we see this year that the Padres drafted 5 HS players and one JC player ... only 4 college types. Getting those HS / JC players to sign should consume the excess pool money.

What will be interesting is the strategy in signing .... try to get them all to sign with "modest" amounts over the $125K cap or focus on one or two (hopefully the better one or two) with more significant excess amounts and just pass on the others. Interesting.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/6/11/17449866/mlb-draft-recap-nl-west

MLB Draft Recap: NL West

1 NEW, 1

San Diego Padres

Best Pick: Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto HS (TN) – Round 1, Pick 7 – Weathers does not have a true power pitch, but he is a polished high school lefty. There is mild effort at the end of his delivery, but some adjustments that allow him to use his lower half in his delivery and more give to his front leg could help this. Currently he fights against himself with his landing leg which nearly had me putting Weathers as a reach, but his pitch mix and command landed him as the best pick. He has a fastball that can get to the mid-90s with run and sink out of a 3/4 arm slot. He has a sharp curve and an advanced change to go with the rare ability to command all three pitches. I don’t see the huge upside often attached to the number seven pick, but he has as high a floor of any high schooler not named Matthew Liberatore for me.

Reach: Grant Little, OF, Texas Tech – Competitive Balance B, Pick 74 – It is tough to get a good read on Little’s future as he has the athleticism to play up the middle, but was a left fielder for Texas Tech. Some feel he can play center, while there is also some belief he can move to the infield where he has seen time in the offseason to show off his versatility. He had a breakout year in the power department this season, going from two to 12 home runs, walking more than he struck out, and improving his average by 45 points. His swing is more of an inside out swing and his stance can get wide, but supporters of Little will point to his recent numbers as a sign he has broken out, while his detractors will question whether or not his power will play at the next level and a big question on his position. There are just too many questions on Little to be taken this early in the draft.

Sleeper: Jawuan Harris, OF, Rutgers – Round 7, Pick 201 – The big question with Harris is will he hit? He possesses plus-plus speed with a solid arm and solid reads in center. He will play as a defense first outfielder and can provide a spark off the bench with his speed. The swing is long and he strikes out far too often, but he is quite projectable for a collegiate hitter as he is a safety on the Rutgers football team, meaning he did not get the Summer or Fall work most college hitters can take advantage of. There is some uppercut to his swing and good strength in his body that suggests he may develop some power, but his role will ultimately be determined by how much hard contact he can make at the next level.

Deep Sleeper: Sean Guilbe, 2B, Muhlenberg HS (PA) – Round 12, Pick 351 – It appears Guilbe will in fact sign despite his Tennessee commitment, meaning Tennessee is losing two impact infielders from this year’s recruiting class, the other being Jonathan Ornelas to the Rangers. He has the arm to stick at third, although his below average athleticism limits him to a corner infield spot and his glove will never be more than average. The hit tool is a real concern as the bat is long and the swing is stiff, but he has legit power. When he clears his hips in sync with his hands he can hit the ball a mile, which could make him a plus power hitter, but that will be the tool that carries him. Ultimately, I am not high on the chances Guilbe carves out a big league career for himself, but the 30+ home run upside is too good not to be worth the shot in round 12.

While we'll probably get an official announcement tomorrow that includes most of the college guys (obviously, the Texas Tech guys won't be doing anything until their run at Omaha is over, and then they'll likely get a little breather), there's definitely movement.

BA included eighth- and ninth-rounders Steven Wilson and Luke Becker among signees last week. No bonus monies have been announced, but if the two combine for $50,000, I would be surprised.

Among the Day Three high schoolers, a few were obvious targets to come in right at $125,000 and therefore have no impact on pool money.  It appears that three of them, Payton Smith (22nd round OF), Tyler Mortensen (26th round RHP) and Seth Mayberry (39th round RHP) have signed already. Sean Guilbe has also been widely reported to have agreed and reported to Peoria. He was thought to have a higher buy-out price to forego Tennessee, but the quick turn-around without confirmation on pool space available implies maybe not.

JuCo selection Erik Sabrowski also looks to have agreed to terms already.

Among those who won't sign, 24th-rounder Pavin Parks, going back to Kent State as a senior, and high school picks Jake Pfennigs and Ben Abram.

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3rd rounder- Owen Milller signed for $500,000 (slot $694,500)

6th rounder- Alexuan Vega signed for $250,000 (slot $282,700)

7th rounder- Juwuan Harris signed for $215,000 (slot $221,000)

 

Also of note:  Liberatore signed below slot with Rays for $3,500,000 (slot $3,603,500)

The UT indicated 19 draftees had signed. Interesting how a lot of these higher round guys are going underslot.

More Savings:

4th rounder- Dylan Coleman signed for $500,000 (slot $502,800)

5th rounder- Dwanya Williams-Sutton signed for $350,000 (slot $375,600)

 

So far I have the Padres as $261,600 underslot with the 3rd through 7th rounders signed

 

Edwards signs for $2.6M according to Jim Callis. That leaves them currently $460,100 above slot values.

Expect that rounds 8-10 will save them most of that. That could leave some significant money to play with for the high school kids from day three.

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