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You’re the GM! San Diego Padres edition

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a lot of "ifs" need to fall in place for a marked improvement in offense for 2019 ... but maybe the "ifs" are not the total long shots the used to be.

Assuming no trades (in or out):

1. Reyes and Renfroe might continue at their end of season production level for a full season (remember they were not all that productive in the 1st half)

2. Myers offensive production is probably now a constant with a .790ish OPS ... so if he is available and in 2016 and 2017 he did play over 150 games each year ... so possible and his stats as a 3B are upper half in the league

3. Urias and Tatis may be the keys since both 2B and SS were not very productive for the full season and at least POTENTIAL wise those two can be an upgrade (though more like in 2020).

4. Hedges is not a problem (for a catcher) and add in Mejia for about 50 starts / DH and maybe a spot in OF/1B might get a boost there

5. Margot .... sophomore slump in 2018? rebound to 2017 level possible?

6. Hosmer seems to do better in alternating years so ????

All in all a lot of "ifs" but all feasible given the perceived talent level and potential (no Ryan Schimpfs here).

For me actually more concerned about the start pitching with a few of the potentially impactful arms maybe off until mid-season / 2020 in Paddack and Allen to fill the 5 starting slots. Right now like (but not sold on) Lucchesi and Lauer ... see Erlin in the pen .... Nix really on the bubble ... Mitchell out ... and maybe Strahm getting his shot ... Lamet in the minors building innings after TJ. Don't see much from the others so out of the current arms ... may be a very tough way to start the season to get 5 starters of quality.

Back to IF I made a move (for a significant add) it would target a frontline starter ... conceding not that easy with the  assets I would be willing to deal (e.g. no Tatis).

Perdomo is usually solid his first 2 times through a lineup.

Does Green create a two headed monster like Dick Williams did with Flannery and Royster( Timmery Flanster)? Start Perdomo, let him go twice through the lineup, then bring in Strahm, another guy who seems lights out, first few times through the order? Perdahm? Or Stradomo?

Switch them around, alternate starts? Both guys can do both.

I think we have to be creative until the wave of talent down below makes its way to SD. I'd rather see that than spending big money on FA's( that hasn't really worked out too well for us)

 

As usual the Padres most glaring weakness is getting on base.

Margot taking a step back this year really hurt us.

There "has" to be guys on base for Myers,Reyes,Hosmer and Renfroe to drive in.

Way too many solo homeruns.

I still hold out hope for Margot but i would be just fine with Jankowski starting every day against RH pitchers next season.

We need table setters.....guys who can get into scoring position with their legs when necessary.

Reyes hit "16" homeruns and only had 30 rbi's....but that's also attributed to his lack of hitting with RISP(.192)

If Galvis comes back he needs to hit 8th everyday....if we can allow him to do that because we have guys at the top of the order getting on base we should be fine.

But if he has to be moved back up to the top of the order it will be a sure sign that we're gonna struggle again to score runs.

 

Any ideas of why the Padres have "always" struggled to get on base?

Different Year.....different players....different Managers....different Hitting coaches....same Ol' story.

Is it scouting..... drafting.....developing.....coaching....Padre luck?

 

I guess some encouragement of the direction of the offense spurred by the emergence of Reyes and the improvement of Renfroe plus some changes post injury from both Hedges and Myers using wRC+ as a team measure:

Apr ... 84 (27th in MLB)

May .. 77 (28th)

Jun ... 82 (23rd)

Jul ... 74 (29th)

Aug ... 100 (14th)

Sep ... 87 (19th)

could be a mirage (see Headley) or could reflect some systemic improvement of the younger players ... so hope. Maybe not to the contender quality as yet but with the potential of Tatis / Urias added could see upper half performances out of the offense ... maybe 2019 but a decent shot for 2020.

 

Fowler did a radio interview yesterday ... only heard some excerpts but a couple of his thoughts:

1. He sees a competition for a corner OF slot in 2019 among Reyes, Renfroe, Cordero, and Myers which suggests that Cordero is still in the forefront of their thinking and Myers to 3B is NOT a done deal.

2. Fowler made it clear that he felt in 2019 they needed to settle on a position for Myers .... did not think the annual movement benefited Myers or the future of the team.

3. Left open trades, FA signings, and system promotions as options leading into 2019 but made it clear they would not be players for the like of Machado or Harper. No indication on position targets.

4. Preller and Green's jobs are secure.

5. The farm system is better than he expected at this point but the ML is a bit behind expectations ... still with the though of contention / playoff runs beginning in 2020.

6. Tatis is firmly his SS of the future.

Since we are beginning to discuss winer moves, should note that the Padres have (in various ways) said they want to:

a. improve the OBP which continually ranks near the bottom of MLB

b. add pitching (you can never have enough pitching) with very little (if anything) settled going into 2019 and beyond

At one level a lot of faith (hope) in Urias / Tatis being the prospects we hope them to be adding significant upgrades at 2B/SS both with OBP, overall offense, and defense by the end of 2019 ... so those slots may be just hold and then see what happens.

Improving OBP  might come from Hosmer (he is not going anywhere but his history is better than 2018) and then what do they do. In the Renfroe - Reyes - Myers trio it is Renfroe with the poorest OBP record (but offset by his SLG). Plus removing any one of them to a question of replacement ... none of the current roster candidates have better offensive numbers (can't always live on potential). Move any one and clearly would need to add a replacement that yields that desired OBP bump. Not an easy two move scenario for Preller.

Wouldn't waste the money (and risk) on an aging FA SP of quality (e.g. Corbin) and the others probably not worth the block they would create for the prospects. So, Preller needs to trade. If Preller wants to get quality ... he will have to give more than a laundry list of mid-tier prospects. Mejia likely (but maybe Hedges) would appeal to a lot of teams with catching in short supply and both are low cost / long control. I would dangle Renfroe (an .800+ OPS could appeal to teams needing RH OF power plus has low cost / control). COULD dangle Myers (not sure if the hole create at 3B can be adequately backfilled ... no to Villanueva / Spangenberg / Galvis) but 4 year at just over $70MM (about an $18MM AAV) might work for some teams but likely would not also yield a decent return in players ... so he remains likely.

Peller's moves may depend a lot on the landing spots of Machado and Harper tanking some teams out of the mix while adding to other teams desire to improve. Two teams that might match for a power hitting OF with potentially SP to offer are: Atlanta (if they don't resign Markakis or sign Harper) they could use a RHH power corner OF with little in their near term farm system except for a tone of high quality SP prospect to push their already quality young SP staff; then Cleveland whose LHH bias and soon to be decimated OF due to FA departures (plus with limited finances not going to be big in FA) might really like a Renfroe and they too have some decent arms to dangle. Two contenders with"surplus" arms and a need for a RHH power OF.

Move Renfroe for SP ... gamble Reyes is for real .... have Myers either handle LF or 3B depending on the replacement to cover Renfroe. Cordero should be back as an OF option (little else for 2019) and no real quality 3B option. So again Preller would need to likely make 2 moves here.

Yates could potentially get a key return piece ... rest of the pen appears strong so might be a decent trade gamble with 2 years control and being low cost.

Just food for thought.

The Braves just traded for Adam Duval....who the last two years(when played regularly) was basically Renfroe.

This deal may eliminate them from the "Renfroe Sweepstakes" and also gives us an idea of what a guy like Renfroe would bring in return.

The Reds got Preston Tucker,Matt Wisler and Lucas Sims for Duval.

The Braves have since traded back for Tucker for cash considerations.

Wisler,as we know,is probably just a decent BP piece.

Sims was good in the minors and still has the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter.

I would think AJ could get a good haul for Renfroe if he adds a couple decent(8-12) of our prospects.

I would "LOVE" to get Austin Riley from the Braves to be our 3b of the future though.

They may be willing to trade him as Camargo really took a step forward this year for them.

They may not be as sold on Duvall who is now 30 and had a miserable 2018 in CINN / ATL. Add that his two Renfroe like seasons were in hitter's paradise for power hitters ... CINN. Tough to "rely" on him in a corner OF spot when they are the defending NL EAST champ.

Do agree that to get a decent return from Renfroe he will have to be bundled with some prospects (or maybe Stammen or Yates). ATL should have some money to spend ... so I would not put Myers out of the picture for a move back to RF ... that my get Riley into the discussion for 3B in the deal.

I'd rather move Myers at this point, and keep Renfroe.

Wil may have better tools but he's just not on the field enough and there really never seems a good place to put him defensively.

I'm fine with Renfroe and Reyes as our corner outfielders to start next year. We need to find a 3rd baseman!

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