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You’re the GM! San Diego Padres edition

Check out what's up at minorleagueball.com ...

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/9/14/17860274/youre-the-gm-san-diego-padres-edition

I think a lot of possible moves are based on when you think the DH arrives in the NL. It will really drive possible trades based on whether it comes sooner or later.

So, going into next year I think they need to decide on a couple of positions and/or players.

Catcher - I dont think the whole share the plate duties between Hedges and Mejia is going to work. I know its a small sample size, but switch hitting Catchers with an arm and power are rare. IMO trade Hedges and resign Ellis and go with Mejia behind the plate 75%.

1B - Its an odd year, we should get the good Hosmer.

2B/SS - Re sign Galvis. He will need to start the season at SS since Tatis will not be ready until the ASG game at the earliest IMO. Then, when Tatis is ready, I fully believe that Galvis can be used at SS/2B/CF  as a back up. He is a switch hitter and a slick fielder, I think he has value at the right amount for 3 years to this team. Of course Urias is our 2B, and CV can also back up in an emergency.

3B - Myers or Villanueva. Personally, if at all possible, trade Myers. I dont think he is a team leader type and the consistency/health is there. However, since I dont think there is a ice cube's chance in hell any team will trade for Myers without $6 billion and 3 top prospects going to the other team, I think we just embrace the change to 3B.  Not sure what to do with Villanueva though, can he back up 3B, 2B, & LF?

LF - I think Reyes and Renfroe are the same player, one is just younger than the other. I think they need to decide which one they are going to use and trade the other. I know, neither are going to fetch a kings ransom, but either could be used to add to a trade get a better prospect back. Plus, I think both need to be in LF, not RF.

CF - Margot/Jankowski, were covered.

RF - Cordero. He should be ready, and we need to see who he really is. Let him play for the 1st half, with out exception.

SP - Sign/trade for one top level SP. I can live with a mainly rookie rotation if we have a top of the rotation SP that can really show the kids how to win and be "that" pitcher.

So, I am trading Hedges, Renfroe, and if I get a good enough offer, Yates and Stammen.

C - Mejia, Ellis

1B - Hosmer

2B - Urias

SS - Galvis (to start the season)

3B - Myers

LF - Reyes

CF - Margot

RF - Cordero

Thats 8, Bench is Ellis, Villanueva, Spangenberg (until Tatis arrives, and then Galvis pushes Spangy off the team), and Jankowski.

SP - DeGrom ( I can dream), Lucchesi, Nix, Lauer, Mitchell.

 

I'm not sure who this Brian Mitchell dude is and what he did with the other one but I'm afraid the other one

is still in there and bound to return next season.

Although it wouldn't be the first time the Padres/Balsley pulled a fast one on the rest of the league.

I do agree that he has earned his shot for next season.

Do we not think that Lamet will be ready to start next season(health)....not good enough....or will start in AAA?

I think Lamet and Nix need to earn a spot in S.T.

Let the loser of the battle go to E.P.

 

Except for some minor roster adjustments (filler SS until Tatis is ready and accommodations to fit in the players that they want to protect from Rule 5) .... I can't see any significant deals.

Although there are Padres that other teams may want .... doubt they would offer a return that would warrant a trade (Padres are past the point of picking up A ball prospects) and really no need to deal anyone just to get them off the roster .... at least for 2019 with "thin" backfill. Better use 2019 to find out which of the prospects develop into ML quality and which fail rather than "guess" and move the wrong one.

First order of business will be setting the Rule 5 roster which with the potential candidates to be added could be "interesting" in who gets DFA'd. Preller needs to walk the line on protecting the legit prospects while still having a roster that supports the ML club for 2019 (25 plus maybe 5 that shuttle up and down to cover injuries). Note that Mitchell's return plus performance (and given what Preller did to get him) might just save his spot (I had him long gone) and just makes this exercise more intriguing.

Agree that a front of the rotation arm would be a good trade target BUT given the Padres' development path that target would need to have 3-4 years control to be worth making the move .... and if the arm is "legit" that probably exceeds the value of the assets the Padres have to deal (baring dealing Tatis + + +).

Winter of 2019 .... HOLD and IF all the "IFs" fall the Padres way early in the season would look for moves at the trade deadline.

Unless we can trade for a legit #1 or #2 while dealing from depth on the Farm who we could always trade again if necessary for more "needed" positions.

In other words...if we could trade(and this is just an example) a package like Renfroe/Lauer/Naylor/Austin Allen....maybe even a Quantrill or Lamet etc.

We already have a logjam at corner OF.

We have 1B ahead of Naylor and Catchers ahead of Allen.

You would think that would be enough to get a solid young Starter without really hurting the ML team or the future teams.

I understand not giving "too much" just because they are blocked so i obviously mean the "right" package of guys at these positions.

Or,as was pointed out...includes Yates or Stammen if it's a deal with a team expected to contend in 19'.

 

 

Getting a legit #1 / #2 who is proven in the ML is hard to envision. They are in short supply and any contender (or near contender) is not likely to give them up for less than elite prospects. So, have to scan the also rans for #1 / #2 quality SP (not easy to find many) and then outbid all the contending teams who will be all over those same arms. Actually teams such as the LAD, NYY may be hunting for top SP and they both have some high profile prospects they can use to pry them away. The competition for that kind of arm would be stiff.

So maybe a proven #1 / #2 is a reach but what about just a significant improvement over the current Padres arms with immediate potential and some extended control (since doubt whomever they add in 2019 will get them to the playoffs) for value in 2020 and beyond.

Consider a deal with the NYM ... not for DeGroom (would cost way too much for only 2 control years) or Wheeler (1 control year) but Matz (4 control years) or even Syndergaard (3 control years)? Mets have a losing season with 4 quality SP and a so-so farm so may be players. Not sure of what the Padres have that matches their needs but a point of inquiry.

(Long shot) a deal with Atlanta .... they have a pretty decent young team and a plethora of arms who are ML ready and high ceiling ... go for a high ceiling potential #1 / #2 arriving in 2019? Again not sure what they need in return.

In both cases ... catcher would be in play I do believe.

Because I am watching the game and we are playing SF, Mud was talking about Posey. Gotta think there is a possibility that he does not return to C. Do they have anything that SD would want/they would give up for Hedges/Myers? SF doesnt seem to set at C or OF, Hedges/Myers could solve that. SF has deep pockets and Bochy loves the older players.

I guess I have a different approach to potential trades ... find who I would want first then assess who I would move to get them. Would move anyone for the right deal but not focused on moving anyone just to get them off the roster.

I can understand the frustration with Myers (what as given in the trade, contract, injuries ... although did play 150+ in 2016 and 2017 ... and apparent attitude) BUT from a more cold stats view his production as a 3B for an offensive starved team is strong. 2018: 260/321/460 yields a wRC+ of 112 which sits at #11 best among team rankings for their 3B. Should note that stat line is very close to his 2016 and 2017 stat lines. Even his defense is still ranked #22 vs teams and this is his conversion year. Move Myers and a major hole is created at 3B ... Villanueva / Spangenberg are just not anywhere near as productive.

Hedges stat line is 235/286/437 yielding a wRC+ 93 .... not on the surface exciting until you sit that among the team rankings for catchers ... Hedges would sit at #9 offensively and considering his calling card is defense ... a very positive piece for the team. Might be fascinated by the new toy in Mejia but has not proven to hit ML pitching (33% K-rate and a .217 BA) plus 3 passed balls in 9 starts vs. Hedges 4 passed balls in 78 starts. Mejia has a lot to prove before moving Hedges.

I will toss in the emergence of Reyes (making Renfroe more of a trade piece if they do anything) .... 286/342/514 yielding a wRC+ of 133 the 3rd best for RF in the ML and after a poor early part of the season.

I has been a long time since the Padres have had 3 position players be in the upper half of MLB in offense for their position.

I have no problem with Myers other than his availability.

We need him to play 150 games a season.

I have no problem with Hedges production either and am certainly surprised that Reyes ended up our "best" hitter in 2018.

The problem I have is where does "enough" improvement come next year to improve?

Does Mejia getting 300 AB's equal enough increase?

Do we get more production from SS somehow?

I mean.....Galvis was pretty damn good for us this year.

An OF of Reyes/Renfroe/Margot/Jankowski would probably equal the same as this year.

Do we think Margot will finally break out?

Hosmer could hit better....Myers could play more.....but what combination makes a marked improvement to our offense?