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What has to happen for us to be competitive in 2020?

Heres some additional information that should show how much we have improved over last season already.

I think we can all agree that we stunk last season v. RHSP. We had a team BA of .234 and OBP of .301. I cant remember who recently posted about the team OBP of the 2019 playoff teams, but they all had an OBP of .322 or higher, the highest being HOU at .352 and lowest STL at .322, for an average of .335.

So with the team that we have right now. Our lowest regular OBP v RHSP would be Hegdes at .258. We now have a career OBP of .332 v RHSP for 2020. Thats good enough to be right in the middle of the pack for playoff teams.

So with health, and good years from Richards and Lamet, there is definitely reason to think that we should be able to fight for a WC through Sept.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2019, 9:23 am

Heres some additional information that should show how much we have improved over last season already.

I think we can all agree that we stunk last season v. RHSP. We had a team BA of .234 and OBP of .301. I cant remember who recently posted about the team OBP of the 2019 playoff teams, but they all had an OBP of .322 or higher, the highest being HOU at .352 and lowest STL at .322, for an average of .335.

So with the team that we have right now. Our lowest regular OBP v RHSP would be Hegdes at .258. We now have a career OBP of .332 v RHSP for 2020. Thats good enough to be right in the middle of the pack for playoff teams.

So with health, and good years from Richards and Lamet, there is definitely reason to think that we should be able to fight for a WC through Sept.

Not sure about your math for OBP for 2020 ... more like an improvement from the .301 v RHP to .307 in my calculation (which has to include the pitchers). Going with the best option by position:

.313 ... Mejia

.321 ... Hosmer

.370 ... Garcia

.332 ... Tatis

.315 ... Machado

.326 ... Pham

.333 ... Grisham

.314 ... Naylor

.139 ... Pitchers

Better but not top tier yet ... at least it eliminates the sub-.300 OBP position players. The bench (which would also drag this down a bit):

.248 ... Hedges

.278 ... Profar

.306 ... France

.260 ... Margot

.309 ... Myers

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2019, 9:23 am

Heres some additional information that should show how much we have improved over last season already.

I think we can all agree that we stunk last season v. RHSP. We had a team BA of .234 and OBP of .301. I cant remember who recently posted about the team OBP of the 2019 playoff teams, but they all had an OBP of .322 or higher, the highest being HOU at .352 and lowest STL at .322, for an average of .335.

So with the team that we have right now. Our lowest regular OBP v RHSP would be Hegdes at .258. We now have a career OBP of .332 v RHSP for 2020. Thats good enough to be right in the middle of the pack for playoff teams.

So with health, and good years from Richards and Lamet, there is definitely reason to think that we should be able to fight for a WC through Sept.

That was me...and to carry it further here is the bottom of the list for OBP for 2019.

21.Sea...22.Cin...23.CWS...24.Bal....25.KC....26.SD....27.Tor....28.SF.....29.Mia.....30.Det

I don't know about you but I see a pattern.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2019, 10:38 am

Not sure about your math for OBP for 2020 ... more like an improvement from the .301 v RHP to .307 in my calculation (which has to include the pitchers). Going with the best option by position:

I was using career numbers from baseball reference, and only v RHP. And I dont count the pitchers since they dont bat everyday and often are up to simply sac bunt in the NL. As a team last season, our team OBP v LHP was .350. So in order for SD to be more successful in 2020, was the need for improvement v RHP. And the line up below does that.

.258 ... Hedges ... .258 he bats better v RHP than LHP, and its the power v RHP that is different.

.321 ... Hosmer ... .354

.370 ... Garcia ... .369

.332 ... Tatis ... .332

.315 ... Machado ... .330

.326 ... Pham ... .352

.333 ... Grisham ... .333

.320 ... Myers ... .320

That comes out to .331±

Does anyone have any idea how Tingler feels about stealing bases?

The stolen base has been declining for some time as Teams are hitting more home runs and don't want to run into an out just before the next guy hits one out.

But I was thinking......this current Padre team just traded away their two best,and purest HR hitters.
Sure we have guys who can hit homeruns but we are turning this team into a get on/get over/get in kind of team.

Last year Ronald Acuna led the NL with 37 stolen bases...the lowest level to lead the league since Murry wills in 1961.

1961!

So does Tatis lead the league in Steals in 2020?

Should he?

I'm thinking without a 50 HR guy....or even a 40 HR guy....we should be taking every extra base we can in 20'.

 

 

 

I think he needs to run as much as he can while staying healthy. Why do we watch baseball? To be entertained. I enjoy watching people steal bases. What makes Tatis special is his all-out style of play. He was the most entertaining player in baseball last year. Let him be that player.

I have been thinking that moving to an OBP / stealing bases offense ... in an era when other teams are focused on HR ... might do a lot to shake-up pitchers / catchers not used to effectively dealing with that type of play.

May take a while though for the full transition ... getting the OBP types is just hard enough at this point ... and that should be priority 1.

Actually, the Padres were 15th in MLB stolen bases last season (70). Only 3 current SB threats: Margot (20 of 24); Tatis (16 of 22 in 1/2 season); and Myers (16 of 23). Then Grisham is maybe a 10 SB type based on his AA/AAA time but takes away from Margot. Profar is also a 10 SB type.

Might have to wait for Abrams and Trammell to arrive before we see a significant uptick is team SB but if they keep Tatis in the lead-off it sure will seem more prevalent than it actually is.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 2:06 pm

I have been thinking that moving to an OBP / stealing bases offense ... in an era when other teams are focused on HR ... might do a lot to shake-up pitchers / catchers not used to effectively dealing with that type of play.

May take a while though for the full transition ... getting the OBP types is just hard enough at this point ... and that should be priority 1.

Actually, the Padres were 15th in MLB stolen bases last season (70). Only 3 current SB threats: Margot (20 of 24); Tatis (16 of 22 in 1/2 season); and Myers (16 of 23). Then Grisham is maybe a 10 SB type based on his AA/AAA time but takes away from Margot. Profar is also a 10 SB type.

Might have to wait for Abrams and Trammell to arrive before we see a significant uptick is team SB but if they keep Tatis in the lead-off it sure will seem more prevalent than it actually is.

 

Great post Fenn. I think that is just the mold of a team AJP is building. You forgot Pham on your list who swiped 25 bags last year.

Yeah it's not gonna be an overnight thing but I do think we should be playing more small ball.

Even if the analytics say that the risk of getting caught stealing outweighs the advantage of the extra base.

The difference can't be that large depending on the success rate of the individual base stealers anyway.

Plus it's a much more entertaining brand of baseball and it can completely mess with the defense and pitchers...especially if they are trying to shift on the infield.Speed makes the defense do things they wouldn't normally do....like rush to field the ball and over throw etc...

Other than Hedges and Hosmer pretty much the rest of the offense is at least a threat to run.

Run boys run!

 

 

There is an element of SB that analytics can't really incorporate ... it is the impact on the pitcher / defense of just the threat of a stolen base ... does the batter see more FB as the pitcher alters pitch selection .. is the pitcher's focus altered in a way his command is altered ... do the SS/2B have to alter their defensive alignment to effectively cover 2B in case of a steal attempt?

Speed, stolen base, and the threat of a stolen base tips the scales a bit to the aggressive offense. Especially now when few pitchers and defenses know how to counter it due to lack of exposure.

Agree I am here to be entertained ... and players on base and running is way more entertaining (to me) than the three natural outcomes (walk, strikeout, and HR) plus the Padres have been losing while employing the three natural outcome strategy ... so that theory may have some holes in it.